{"id":27362,"date":"2018-03-19T16:44:15","date_gmt":"2018-03-19T15:44:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=27362"},"modified":"2024-06-27T11:21:58","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T09:21:58","slug":"the-putin-system-and-the-kremlins-influence-in-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/the-putin-system-and-the-kremlins-influence-in-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"The Putin System and the Kremlin\u2019s Influence in Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: Kranert, jet-foto<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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On March 13 the Center Liberal Modernity held its first inter\u00adna\u00adtional conference on Russia. The event\u2019s main intention was gaining a deeper under\u00adstanding of the Putin System and to find out what a realistic Western policy towards Russia should look like. This report summa\u00adrizes the discussion and provides some analytical background for Sunday\u2019s presi\u00addential vote \u2014 which was far from free  and fair democ\u00adratic elections.
\n<\/h2>\n

How does Putin\u2019s system function in Russia, how does it influence Europe and what can Europe do about it? The theme of the Center for Liberal Modernity\u2019s first major conference last Tuesday in Berlin was not chosen by accident: The Center was set up in November as a think tank directed against growing populist and anti-liberal tendencies in Europe, a trend that many have linked to Russia, where President Vladimir Putin was re-elected for a fourth term on Sunday.<\/p>\n

The conference\u2019s aim was to under\u00adstand the political and economic aspects of the Putin System and to raise awareness about the real nature of the regime. Another aim was to discuss realistic policy options for the West: \u201cThere is this timid, undecided feeling in western capitals \u2013 they do not look because they are afraid of what they might see\u201d \u2013 the Center\u2019s co-founder Marieluise Beck said in her opening remarks. Ralf Fuecks, its director, explained that the Center would deal with antiliberal challenges from within and outside. Russia is no longer an external power but an effective political actor inside Europe.<\/p>\n

The Putin System\u2019s Character<\/h2>\n

Is Russia a moderate fascist state in formation? Or is it a rent-seeking corpo\u00adration with Putin as its CEO? Is it an author\u00adi\u00adtarian system with a clerical-conser\u00adv\u00adative ideology, or is it a deeply pragmatist government with no convic\u00adtions, held together just by the will to stay in power? Does the regime have strategic aims or does it see political power just as a tool for its own enrichment?<\/p>\n

These are some of the theories that Kremli\u00adnol\u00ado\u00adgists debate in 2018. Deciding what is right is not easy. One common denom\u00adi\u00adnator that scien\u00adtists, experts, politi\u00adcians and NGO workers could agree on is that it is a hybrid regime that combines elements from different systems. A major diffi\u00adculty is, as one eminent sociol\u00adogist put it, the habit in contem\u00adporary Russia to \u201csay one thing, think another while doing a third\u201d.<\/p>\n

On inter\u00adesting discussion is about the room for maneuver left to the individuals at the top. One theory called \u201csistema\u201d in Russian argues that the elite\u2019s private interests and systemic inertia is prone to take hostage even reformist leaders with good intentions.<\/p>\n

Conference partic\u00adi\u00adpants largely agreed that Russia is an author\u00adi\u00adtarian kleptocracy with systemic corruption, a revisionist power that aims to rewrite history and change the geopo\u00adlitical order. Add to this that its government shows little care about ethical and legal constraints and incor\u00adpo\u00adrates informal networks of former and current security agency members (the \u201cChekists\u201d).<\/p>\n

Plus, Moscow has not only become a party to deadly wars in Syria and Ukraine (despite vehement denials), it is also widely seen to use dubious means like Internet trolls and state propa\u00adganda to influence western decision\u00admakers and public opinion to promote its own goals \u2013 a huge issue at least since the meddling accusa\u00adtions in the 2016 US election.<\/p>\n

But Russia\u2019s ability to influence and manip\u00adulate has more to do with western weakness than with Russian strength. Rather than exagger\u00adating Moscow\u2019s capabil\u00adities, western policy\u00admakers should focus on strength\u00adening and educating their own societies and start a wider debate.<\/p>\n

Despite claims made by Russian state media, the West isn\u2019t exactly plotting to overthrow Mr Putin. Not least because the risk of an abrupt regime change is widely seen as too high.<\/p>\n

And yet it is important to ask questions about the future for Putin\u2019s rule, which has entered its 19th<\/sup> year already. Alas, the answer is not as easy as you think.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s state pollster VTsIOM said last week<\/a> that Putin\u2019s rating is 70 per cent, and few were surprised when Sunday\u2019s election delivered 76 per cent for Putin and a turnout of 67 per cent. Election fraud was actually largely unnec\u00adessary since there was no serious contender on the ballots after opposition leader Alexei Navalny was barred from taking part. The second strongest candidate, Communist Pavel Grudinin got only 11 per cent, while the liberal Xenia Sobchak finished fourth with just 1.6 per cent.<\/p>\n

However, political ratings are highly contro\u00adversial in Russia. The independent Levada Center has been barred from publishing them under Russia\u2019s contro\u00adversial foreign agent law. And opposition activists say that conducting opinion polls in an author\u00adi\u00adtarian state is meaningless anyway because people fear saying the truth. Which, in turn, justifies their prepa\u00adra\u00adtions for the end of Putin\u2019s rule.<\/p>\n

When this will come, is another matter. Some say that a peaceful palace revolution could happen, if Russia\u2019s economic stagnation and inter\u00adna\u00adtional isolation continue. But nobody knows, if many people would take to the streets to defend Putin. It is also unclear if a regime change can lead to a reformist government at all. Propo\u00adnents of the above mentioned \u201cSistema\u201d warn that Russian voters have an anti-western negative identity so strong that candi\u00addates demanding good relations with the West won\u2019t have a chance to get elected.<\/p>\n

What should the West do?<\/h2>\n

Many European policy\u00admakers now accept that there is a Russian strategy to spoil European cohesion. Donald Trump\u2019s presi\u00addency in the US has also served as a wakeup call to better defend rule-based inter\u00adna\u00adtional order.<\/p>\n

Some conference partic\u00adi\u00adpants came up with recom\u00admen\u00adda\u00adtions to build \u201ccoali\u00adtions of the willing and able\u201d that should target Moscow\u2019s Achilles heel, that is money, and freeze and seize assets of Putin-loyal oligarchs and members of his ruling elite abroad.<\/p>\n

Others stressed that Europeans should adopt a united strategy. But while the European Union\u2019s resilience to stick to the sanctions regime \u2013 it was prolonged once more for six months earlier this week \u2013 comes as a positive surprise, given the current levels of intra-EU disagreement, nobody expects the 28-member bloc to impose new sanctions against the Kremlin soon.  Not even Britain has demanded this after the recent chemical agent attack on the Russian former double agent Sergei Skripal.<\/p>\n

In addition, calls for isolating Russia because of its government\u2019s alleged criminal nature were met with criticism. Sanctions that isolate Russia polit\u00adi\u00adcally and econom\u00adi\u00adcally would hit the population more than the regime. Most EU members support a limited cooper\u00adation with the Kremlin \u2013 e.g. in Syria. But many conference partic\u00adi\u00adpants criti\u00adcized the Nord Stream II pipeline project, because it only increases Europe\u2019s depen\u00addence on Russian gas and strengthens the natural resource industry as the Kremlin\u2019s most important financial resource.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to find a balance between containment and conflict management ... isolating a whole country and crimi\u00adnal\u00adizing Putin won\u2019t resolve the challenges we face,\u201d a senior German lawmaker told the conference. He added that the Kremlin should still be subject to \u201cnaming and shaming\u201d, especially in the United Nations.<\/p>\n

Thus, the West will keep talking with Russia \u2013 not least because turning your back on a difficult and dangerous neighbor is not a good option. However, mutual under\u00adstanding will remain extremely difficult, because Putin\u2019s Russia sees itself as an opponent of the West.<\/p>\n

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The conference was held under Chatham House Rules, which is why quotes were not attributed to anyone.<\/em><\/p>\n

Writing by Nikolaus von Twickel, editing by Ralf F\u00fccks.<\/em><\/p>\n

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