{"id":34158,"date":"2019-10-31T17:04:38","date_gmt":"2019-10-31T16:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=34158"},"modified":"2020-03-28T02:45:28","modified_gmt":"2020-03-28T01:45:28","slug":"belarus-danger-ahead-eu-response-needed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/belarus-danger-ahead-eu-response-needed\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus: Danger ahead \u2013 EU response needed"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text][\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

Many EU capitals regard Belarus as an extension of Russia and take little interest in it. EU leaders are also uncom\u00adfortable dealing with its long-time autocratic leader, Alexander Lukashenka. Such attitudes make it hard for the EU to see the danger from Moscow\u2019s efforts to pull the country into a closer embrace. These could easily de-stabilise the situation in Belarus with serious conse\u00adquences for European security.<\/h2>\n

<\/p>\n

Here<\/a> you can download the policy paper.<\/p>\n

\n

Foreword<\/p>\n

Why we should be paying attention to Belarus<\/h2>\n

Belarus fell largely off the radar European public after the pro-democracy movement foundered there in 2010. It shouldn\u2019t have. The country has become the latest stage for Russia\u2019s great-power ambitions. Putin has ratcheted up the pressure on Belarus to integrate into a state union. This would put an end to Belarusian indepen\u00addence and would have serious conse\u00adquences for the strategic situation in Central and Eastern Europe. As it happens, a union of states might well open a conve\u00adnient path to a new presi\u00addency for Putin when his current term runs out.<\/p>\n

Moscow\u2019s most powerful leverage over the Belarusian regime lies in the economic depen\u00addency of the latter. The message: the prefer\u00adential terms for its oil and natural gas supplies and loans will only continue if Belarus sacri\u00adfices its sover\u00adeignty. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is ramping up the activ\u00adities of its political networks in Belarus as well.<\/p>\n

Dragging his feet, Lukashenka has managed to resist so far. While he has not called the union treaty into question, he nonetheless insists on Belarus sover\u00adeignty. Lukashenka has no desire to become a governor serving at Putin\u2019s pleasure, and he wants to keep Belarus well out of Russia\u2019s conflict with the West.<\/p>\n

The aim of fending off the Kremlin\u2019s embrace is one on which the interests of the regime and the country\u2019s national interests coincide. A large majority of the Belarusian population wants an independent Belarusian state with good relations with both Russia and the EU.<\/p>\n

An independent Belarus lies in the EU\u2019s strategic interest as well. Should Putin succeed in gobbling up this little neighbour, this would be a serious blow to all hopes for democ\u00adratic change. The extension of the deployment zone of the Russian military \u2013 including for the deployment of nuclear missiles \u2013 right up to the borders of Poland and Lithuania would be another conse\u00adquence, of no minor importance.<\/p>\n

The disparity in the political, economic and military power of the two states will make it nearly impos\u00adsible for Lukashenka to continue resisting the pressure from the Kremlin indef\u00adi\u00adnitely, unless, that is, the West creates some alter\u00adnative breathing space for him. Possible options include a partnership agreement, improved access to the European internal market, energy-sector cooper\u00adation and the promotion of medium-sized enter\u00adprises. Membership in the Council of Europe should also be considered, provided that Lukashenka is willing to eliminate the death penalty and recognise the juris\u00addiction of the European Court of Human Rights.<\/p>\n

The EU must find a way to strengthen Belarusian indepen\u00addence without lending legit\u00adimacy to Lukashenka\u2019s dicta\u00adtorial reign. It cannot and must not guarantee him lifelong rule. But it could offer him the prospect of improved relations with the West that are not tied to condi\u00adtions that would lead straight to his resig\u00adnation. At a minimum, the EU would have to insist that Lukashenka allow civil society to breathe. Democracy grows from the bottom up.<\/p>\n

We should not treat Belarus like a forecourt of the Kremlin. There are many there who see themselves as Europeans. Visa-free travel, schol\u00adarship programmes and cultural exchange would be oxygen for democ\u00adratic civil society in Belarus. The promotion of small- and medium-sized enter\u00adprises would reduce depen\u00addency on a too-powerful state. The EU should concen\u00adtrate on these catalysts for change in its policy towards Belarus.<\/p>\n

This policy paper by John Lough, a British expert on Eastern Europe, analyses the tensions between Belarus, Russia and the EU and discusses political measures that might help to strengthen Belarusian indepen\u00addence. In view of the pressure being exerted Russia, it is high time that the EU pursued an active policy towards Belarus.<\/p>\n

Berlin, in October 2019<\/p>\n

Marieluise Beck, Ralf F\u00fccks
\nCenter for Liberal Modernity (LibMod)<\/p>\n

\n

Here<\/a> you can download the full policy paper.<\/p>\n

\"Textende\"[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][vc_column_text]Hat Ihnen unser Beitrag gefallen? Dann spenden Sie doch einfach und bequem \u00fcber unser Spendentool. Sie unter\u00adst\u00fctzen damit die publizis\u00adtische Arbeit von LibMod.<\/p>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]