{"id":42219,"date":"2021-05-26T15:01:13","date_gmt":"2021-05-26T13:01:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=42219"},"modified":"2021-05-26T16:01:05","modified_gmt":"2021-05-26T14:01:05","slug":"us-ukraine-relations-under-joe-biden-security-domestic-reforms-as-mutually-reinforcing-pillars-dubovyk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/us-ukraine-relations-under-joe-biden-security-domestic-reforms-as-mutually-reinforcing-pillars-dubovyk\/","title":{"rendered":"US-Ukraine relations under Joe Biden: security and domestic reforms as mutually reinforcing pillars"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: IMAGO \/\u200b Xinhua<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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The recent visit of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kyiv has generated some interest in Ukraine and beyond. This face-to-face meeting was a good oppor\u00adtunity for the United States and Ukraine to send and receive messages and signals in the most direct way. The agenda for the bilateral relations had been set prior to the meeting and yet the symbolism of Blinken coming with a message of continued support (and, also, perhaps, for some \u201cinspection\u201d) was an important one, not to be undervalued.<\/h2>\n

Security and domestic reforms go hand in hand<\/h2>\n

Formally, the US-Ukraine relations are those of the strategic partnership. There have been ups and downs over the years, but mostly ups as Washington has stood behind Kyiv in its attempts to improve its security and introduce much needed (and often delayed) reforms. The intensity of cooper\u00adation and the scale of American support has increased dramat\u00adi\u00adcally since 2014, when Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Ever since that time the US position has been one of unwavering support. This has manifested itself in diplo\u00admatic activ\u00adities at the UN Security Council and other inter\u00adna\u00adtional forums. It has included the defense and security assis\u00adtance which has amounted to more than US$ 2 billion over the past seven years. This now includes the supply of lethal weapons, among other things.<\/p>\n

But another signif\u00adicant realm has always been that of the Ukraine domestic policies, reforms, economic trans\u00adfor\u00admation, and the struggle against corruption. It is here where there has been some success, but also enough disap\u00adpoint\u00adments, both for Ukrainians themselves and for their inter\u00adna\u00adtional partners, including the Americans.<\/p>\n

The duality of the American approach has not always matched the approach of power-brokers in Kyiv, whose preferred stance was often for Washington to deliver support without asking too many questions or attaching condi\u00adtions. However, there is a logic in how Washington sees these two critical \u201cfronts\u201d \u2014 the one against Russian aggression and the domestic one \u2014 as entwined, deeply connected and in impacting on each other.<\/p>\n

Consis\u00adtency and continuity<\/h2>\n

The American approach and the agenda was set under the Obama admin\u00adis\u00adtration. Despite the disrup\u00adtiveness of Donald Trump they remained mostly unchanged under his admin\u00adis\u00adtration. While Trump himself often acted in his own peculiar ways, much of the rest of his admin\u00adis\u00adtration stuck to the guide\u00adlines of its Ukraine policy, following the estab\u00adlished track of support.<\/p>\n

One episode that rever\u00adberated on both sides of the ocean was certainly Trump\u2019s attempt to coerce Kyiv to play a part in his scenario of American domestic politics. President Trump applied pressure on Kyiv to open inves\u00adti\u00adga\u00adtions into the activ\u00adities of Joe Biden and his son Hunter in Ukraine. In the process, US security aid to Ukraine was blocked for several months on White House orders. The outrage this caused led to its unblocking and further inves\u00adti\u00adga\u00adtions of the episode in the Congress, culmi\u00adnating in Trump\u2019s impeachment in the House of the Repre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00adtives. This relatively brief episode has somewhat eroded trust. Moreover, it was the first thing that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy\u2019s admin\u00adis\u00adtration saw from Washington when it came to power. So it had a lingering effect, and left officials in Kyiv rather suspi\u00adcious of their American counterparts.<\/p>\n

There is no ambiguity in the stance of Joe Biden\u2019s admin\u00adis\u00adtration concerning Ukraine. Words match actions. There is a unanimity within the executive branch, the important inter-agency process is back. Congress, which played a pivotal role in driving the Ukraine policy, remains solidly on board with its acts of support for Ukraine and punishment of Russia for its aggression.<\/p>\n

It was already quite clear what Biden\u2019s Ukraine policy would be, even during his presi\u00addential campaign, and there have been no shifts since he was inaugu\u00adrated (as can sometimes happen). These policies are deeply rooted in those of the Obama admin\u00adis\u00adtration. Many of the current policy-makers are veterans of that admin\u00adis\u00adtration, including the president himself. Moreover, Biden was Washington\u2019s point man on Ukraine for the eight years of his vice-presi\u00addency. This was not that long ago and the memories and reflec\u00adtions are fresh. He has accumu\u00adlated a unique under\u00adstanding of Ukraine, how its politics work and who are its most influ\u00adential players. It remains to be seen how much Biden will be personally involved in the Ukraine policy now that he is in the Oval Office. But he will undoubtedly deliver his opinions and will have an impact on strategic issues, even if not tactical ones.<\/p>\n

US \u2013 the reliable security partner<\/h2>\n

The security bloc of the relationship remains crucial and is very relevant these days. US financial assis\u00adtance in that regard comes in handy to Ukraine. Much progress has been made regarding Ukraine\u2019s military preparedness since 2014, and yet the weak points are still there and American aid is instru\u00admental in addressing these. This now includes a more diverse set of aspects, such as the needs of the Ukrainian navy and its anti-aircraft capabil\u00adities, among other things. The training mission is there. The frequent calls of US naval vessels to Ukrainian ports and various training exercises are useful and send an important message that Ukraine is not alone. However, Russia still has the upper hand over Ukraine in terms of numbers and resources in what remains a highly asymmet\u00adrical conflict.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s preparedness to inflict more harm on Ukraine has been demon\u00adstrated recently with a massive concen\u00adtration of Russian troops on Ukraine\u2019s borders. It was also, most probably, intended to send a message to the incoming US admin\u00adis\u00adtration, and has become one of the first tests for the Biden admin\u00adis\u00adtration. Not only did Washington respond with a clear voice to this, including directly to Moscow. It has also mounted a process of intensive coordi\u00adnation with its transat\u00adlantic allies. This wasn\u2019t seen during the Trump presi\u00addency. It remains Biden\u2019s intention to keep this coordi\u00adnation intact.<\/p>\n

The recent Blinken visit has reinforced certainty about American security support for Ukraine. This was clear enough prior to the visit with many state\u00adments and practical steps too. But bringing this message to Kyiv in person has probably had an added value. The US Congress is in the process of intro\u00adducing the Ukraine Security Assis\u00adtance Initiative, which has a strategic outlook for the support for the years to come. This new legislative act follows a number of others directed to support Ukraine and punish Russia for its aggression. It stipu\u00adlates the need for strategic assis\u00adtance in the field of security for the period of 2022\u20132026. It also calls for periodic reports of the executive branch on its activ\u00adities to support Ukraine. It proposes that the United States should coordinate this aid to Ukraine with its European allies, and offers to reinstall the position of the Special Repre\u00adsen\u00adtative on Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Domestic reforms not to be compromised<\/h2>\n

On Ukraine\u2019s domestic \u201cfront\u201d, however, lingering questions remain. There was some hope for the political outsider Zelenskyy when he came to power two years ago. Much of that hope has now dissi\u00adpated. Some signs of this were visible during the recent Blinken visit. The anti-corruption activ\u00adities often appear stalled. There is a noticeable lack of progress in the reform of the judiciary. The most recent change of a top man of \u201cNaftogaz\u201d, Ukraine\u2019s major energy player, which was imple\u00admented in an abrupt and non-trans\u00adparent manner, raised some warning flags. Secretary Blinken had to address the issue when he spoke of a need for more trans\u00adparency in corporate governance.<\/p>\n

The pervasive influence of Ukraine\u2019s oligarchs has always been seen as a problem. They impede Ukraine\u2019s progress and this needs to be addressed. This is easier said than done though. This time Washington did not limit itself to nudging Kyiv into action. It actually offered a helping hand. It initiated the process most visibly by imposing US sanctions on one of the oligarchs \u2014 Igor Kolomoysky. Some also see American encour\u00adagement behind the Ukraine government\u2019s recent pressuring steps against another oligarch \u2014 Victor Medvedchuk (which, perhaps, coincides with Zelenskyy\u2019s domestic political agenda).<\/p>\n

All in all, the US-Ukraine agenda is full. The dialogue is ongoing on a daily, cooper\u00adative basis. Washington still has to make some tactical decisions of its own, for instance who is to be its new ambas\u00adsador to Kyiv, or will there be a new US special repre\u00adsen\u00adtative on Ukraine (the position which has been vacant since Kurt Volker\u2019s resig\u00adnation in September 2019). It is not entirely clear at the time of writing when the first meeting between the presi\u00addents of two countries might take place.<\/p>\n

One thing is clear, though, and this was reinforced by the Blinken visit: the United States stands with Ukraine, it is ready to provide leadership for the inter\u00adna\u00adtional support effort for Ukraine, but it will also look to Ukraine to do its own homework, proceeding with much needed work in the domestic realm.<\/p>\n

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Dr. Volodymyr Dubovyk is a Professor at Odesa I. Mechnikov National University<\/em><\/p>\n

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