{"id":43963,"date":"2021-11-17T08:00:34","date_gmt":"2021-11-17T07:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/kikalishvili-wohin-steuert-georgien\/"},"modified":"2022-08-01T12:59:06","modified_gmt":"2022-08-01T10:59:06","slug":"kikalishvili-whither-georgia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/kikalishvili-whither-georgia\/","title":{"rendered":"Whither Georgia?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: iosebi meladze \/\u200b Shutter\u00adstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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The political crisis in Georgia continues after the municipal runoff elections. The close election result exacer\u00adbates the polar\u00adization between the supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party and the opposition party of imprisoned former President Mikheil Saakashvili.<\/h2>\n

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The current political situation in what was once a front-runner country in the rule of law and democracy within Europe\u2019s Eastern neigh\u00adbourhood is worrying. For at least two years, Georgia has been in the grip of a permanent political crisis, whose end \u2014 partic\u00adu\u00adlarly after the second round of local elections on 30 October 2021 \u2014 is not in sight.<\/p>\n

One of the reasons for this unfor\u00adtunate state of affairs is Georgia\u2019s highly polarised society. There appear to be irrec\u00adon\u00adcilable differ\u00adences between the supporters of the ruling party, Georgian Dream, and the largest opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM). Mikheil Saakashvili, the imprisoned former President and founder of the UNM, is on a hunger strike in order to secure a fair trial. The current political leadership has put a question mark over his pro-Western, pro-European policy course. The images of mass street protests, held even during the pandemic, reflect a widespread sense of hopelessness. Where is Georgia heading?<\/p>\n

Historic local elections<\/h3>\n

After the contro\u00adversial parlia\u00admentary elections in October 2020, the local elections on 30 October 2021 were a historic moment that, for many people, raised hopes of an end to the era of a one-party government. Elections were held in 15 munic\u00adi\u00adpal\u00adities and five self-governing cities, including Tbilisi. According to official results from the Central Election Commission, Georgian Dream was the election winner in all the munic\u00adi\u00adpal\u00adities, with the sole exception of Tsalend\u00adjikha in the west of the country. The opposition coalition has refused to accept the election results. It is demanding new elections and is attempting to put the government under pressure with ongoing street protests.<\/p>\n

It is a sad truth that almost all the elections held to date were charac\u00adterised by extensive use of admin\u00adis\u00adtrative resources, including threats of dismissal on political grounds or intim\u00adi\u00addation and bribery of public officials. Other such measures<\/a> include the creation of favourable condi\u00adtions for the ruling party in the election commis\u00adsions, provo\u00adca\u00adtions at polling stations and irreg\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adities in election tallies. Given that the result of the elections in some local author\u00adities was too close to call, these irreg\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adities may well have influ\u00adenced the outcome on 30 October<\/a>. The Inter\u00adna\u00adtional Election Obser\u00advation <\/strong>Mission also noted consid\u00aderable pressurising of voters, along with a clear imbalance in the allocation of resources, to the ruling party\u2019s benefit, as EU Ambas\u00adsador Carl Hartzell notes in his statement<\/a>. On top of that, there is lack of indepen\u00addence of the judiciary<\/a> and public distrust of the courts.<\/p>\n

Despite the opposition coalition\u2019s narrow defeat, the long-term signals point to change. It is clear that oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili\u2019s party has had its day and now merely conveys an illusion of power. If the opposition shows some political maturity, acts pragmat\u00adi\u00adcally and presents a credible strategy, and if it succeeds in mitigating the polar\u00adi\u00adsation of society, early parlia\u00admentary elections cannot be ruled out.<\/p>\n

Disap\u00adpointed Western partners<\/h3>\n

A number of recent events in EU-Georgian relations suggest that the EU is disap\u00adpointed in its former model pupil. The Western partners, who see this partnership as being based first and foremost on common values, are concerned that after 30 years of Georgian indepen\u00addence, the shared path towards democracy and rule of law is no longer being pursued. They are also irritated by the Georgian government\u2019s dismissive and disparaging tone towards the EU. A watershed moment occurred on 28 July 2021, when the Georgian government withdrew unexpectedly and unilat\u00aderally from the agreement to overcome the political crisis, which European Council President Charles Michel had spent months negoti\u00adating. The 19 April 2021 agreement includes a clause on reforms aimed at building an independent judiciary, but Georgian Dream has yet to implement this provision<\/a> and continues to make polit\u00adi\u00adcally motivated judicial appoint\u00adments to the Supreme Court.<\/p>\n

Soon after\u00adwards, in August 2021, the Georgian government, at its own initiative, rejected the financial assis\u00adtance from the EU, despite the grave economic crisis facing the country. Brussels took the view that Georgia was no longer entitled to the upcoming tranche of financial assis\u00adtance in any case, due to its failure to implement the reforms. In essence, with this decision, the Georgian government has rejected a tried and tested EU instrument of condi\u00adtion\u00adality and questioned its effec\u00adtiveness. The loss of trust was exacer\u00adbated by indica\u00adtions that the Georgian state intel\u00adli\u00adgence agency had been spying on Western diplomats.<\/a><\/p>\n

Not least, the calls from some MEPs<\/a> for an end to the political perse\u00adcution of former President Saakashvili in Georgia and for him to be given a fair trial were dismissed in forth\u00adright comments by Prime Minister Irakli Garib\u00adashvili. Then on 31 October 2021, the Georgian Conference of Judges appointed two new judge members to the High Council of Justice. These appoint\u00adments took place on the day after the local elections and only four days after the publi\u00adcation of the Conference\u2019s agenda. The new appointees\u2019 prede\u00adcessors, whose terms in office had not yet expired, had unexpectedly resigned from their positions. No announcement of candi\u00addates was made in advance of the appoint\u00adments. According to EU Ambas\u00adsador Carl Hartzell<\/a>, this is the fifth setback in the area of the judiciary and rule of law in Georgia within only four months.<\/p>\n

After all of this, it is legit\u00adimate to ask whether Georgia\u2019s European integration, which is enshrined in the Georgian consti\u00adtution, will hence\u00adforth be anything more than a formal aspiration. Are we seeing a progressive change of foreign policy course in this EU-associated country?<\/p>\n

Outlook<\/h3>\n

In order to embark on a stable reform course, a transition country needs firm political will and a strong civil society. There is still a firm commitment to the Euro-Atlantic path within Georgian civil society. Indeed, the majority of the Georgian people (80 per cent) are in favour of the European path, and expec\u00adta\u00adtions of the EU are corre\u00adspond\u00adingly high. The road towards more democracy and the rule of law is rocky, however, and requires a well-crafted strategy, patience and active partic\u00adi\u00adpation, not only by politi\u00adcians but also by civil society. For that reason, the EU should not lose its strategic patience but should collab\u00adorate more resolutely with its Western partners to play a formative, partnership-based role in Georgia.<\/p>\n

This text first appeared in ZOiS Spotlight 40\/\u200b2021<\/a> on November 10 and has been updated on November 12. <\/em><\/p>\n

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