{"id":44526,"date":"2022-01-31T13:18:37","date_gmt":"2022-01-31T12:18:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=44526"},"modified":"2022-05-06T10:33:48","modified_gmt":"2022-05-06T08:33:48","slug":"green-hydrogen-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/green-hydrogen-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Export of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen from Ukraine to the EU: current capacity and future potential"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: Crea\u00adtive Travel Pro\u00adjects \/\u200b\u200b Shut\u00adter\u00adstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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Ukraine has a high potential for the production of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen. DiXi Group\u2019s infographic explains what condi\u00adtions must be met for hydrogen export.<\/h2>\n

Relevance of the \u201chydrogen\u201d issue<\/h3>\n

According to the European Green Deal, hydrogen power must become the main component<\/strong> of the EU\u2019s integrated power system during 2025\u20132030, and the capacity of electrolysis plants must increase to at least 40 GW.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is an important part of the EU\u2019s future hydrogen power system. The Hydrogen Strategy<\/a> envisages cooper\u00adation with Ukraine on the devel\u00adopment of renewable energy sources and the production of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen and the involvement of Ukraine in the European Clean Hydrogen Alliance<\/a>. Hydrogen Europe\u2019s 2\u00d740 GW initiative envisages the construction of electrol\u00adysers with a rating of 9.8 GW<\/a> in Ukraine to produce \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen. Therefore, Ukraine may become an indis\u00adpensable factor in achieving the ambitious goals of the European Green Deal.<\/p>\n

Realization of the EU\u2019s goals in the context of Ukrainian realities<\/h3>\n

Since the EU counts on Ukraine producing specif\u00adi\u00adcally \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen, i.e., by electrolysis of water using \u201cgreen\u201d electricity, what capacity of solar and wind power plants (SPPs and WPPs) would be required to meet this demand?<\/p>\n

Hydrogen Europe stated in its report<\/a> on the 2\u00d740 GW initiative that by 2030, Ukraine may create 1.8 GW of capacity to produce almost 1 million tons of \u201cgreen\u201d ammonia (for the domestic market) and 8 GW of capacity to produce \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen<\/strong> (for export to the EU). Based on expec\u00adta\u00adtions that 32.5 GW of capacity outside the EU will make it possible to contribute 3 million tons of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen, Ukraine\u2019s share in the 8 GW electrolysis capacity would corre\u00adspond to the production of almost 738  thousand tons <\/strong>of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen.<\/p>\n

However, since wind and solar power plants actually have a lower installed capacity utilization factor (ICUF) than hydro\u00adelectric or nuclear power plants, a much greater gener\u00adation capacity would be required to achieve this goal. According to calcu\u00adla\u00adtions by Siemens Gamesa experts<\/a>, almost 13 000 GW of SPP capacity (with the assumed 24% ICUF for a solar power plant and the electrolyser\u2019s effec\u00adtiveness of close to 79%) or 6 200 GW of WPP capacity (with the assumed 50% ICUF for wind power gener\u00adators) will be needed to produce 550 million tons of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen per year.<\/p>\n

Accord\u00adingly, Ukraine would need almost 17.455 GW of SPPs or 8.324 GW of WPPs to produce 738 thousand tons of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For comparison: as of November 2021, the installed capacity<\/a> of SPPs in Ukraine was only 6.226 GW, or only a third of what is needed. For WPPs, the figure is 1.529 GW, which is one-fifth the required capacity. According to Ukrenergo\u2019s optimistic scenario<\/a>, the capacity of solar and wind power plants may still reach the required levels by 2035 (18.5 GW for SPPs and 11.7 GW for WPPs). And overall, the potential<\/a> of Ukraine\u2019s solar and wind power production capacity is assessed to be at least 537 GW (466 GW for WPPs and 71 GW for SPPs). Conse\u00adquently, the country\u2019s hydrogen production potential<\/a> is also substantial, assessed at approx\u00adi\u00admately 45.4 million tons.<\/p>\n

At the same time, it is worth noting that not the entire renewable electricity gener\u00adation capacity will be allocated solely for the production of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen, because these production opera\u00adtions would be the most econom\u00adi\u00adcally viable for large renewable power installations.<\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

The domestic demand for \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen<\/h3>\n

Allowance should also be made for the potential increase of domestic demand for hydrogen due to the effect of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (\u0421\u0412\u0410\u041c), partic\u00adu\u00adlarly on part of the metal\u00adlur\u00adgical and chemical indus\u00adtries to produce \u201cgreen\u201d steel, cast iron and ammonium fertil\u00adizers. The metal\u00adlur\u00adgical industry faces the most acute need to decar\u00adbonize its production processes. 94% of Ukraine\u2019s steel is produced by energy-intensive and outdated methods that use coal, which can be replaced with \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen, while almost 26% of the Ukrainian metal\u00adlur\u00adgical sector\u2019s production output is exported to the EU.<\/p>\n

For example, 1 billion tons of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen would be needed to fully decar\u00adbonize the annual steel production output of 20.6 million tons (the 2020<\/a> figure). Let\u2019s assume that the priority requirement will be the production of \u201cgreen\u201d steel for export to the EU (26%), i.e., 5.4 million tons<\/strong>. In that case, 270 million tons<\/strong> of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen would be needed for that purpose, and to produce that volume, 6400 GW of SPPs or 3000 GW of WPPs<\/strong> would be required.<\/p>\n

It is an open question whether such additional capacity could be created over a relatively short period (by 2030) in the Ukrainian realities, given that the renew\u00adables sector is in a state of crisis. Currently, Ukraine does not have an approved hydrogen power devel\u00adopment strategy. The draft<\/a> Roadmap for Devel\u00adopment and Production of Hydrogen in Ukraine defines three phases for imple\u00admen\u00adtation of regulatory and economic objec\u00adtives between 2021 and 2029. However, this plan does not envisage achieving 2\u00d740 GW goals.<\/p>\n

Land and water as important resources for the production of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen<\/h3>\n

When planning the production of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen, consid\u00ader\u00adation must be given not only to the instal\u00adlation of SPP and WPP gener\u00adation capacity but also to land use. Depending on the location, the renewable electricity gener\u00adation potential, and technologies,  the land require\u00adments are estimated<\/a> at approx\u00adi\u00admately 0.3 ha\/\u200bMW for WPPs and 1.6 ha\/\u200bMW for SPPs on average.<\/p>\n

Therefore, between 2.5 thousand and 28.2 thousand hectares of land would have to be allocated in Ukraine for renewable power instal\u00adla\u00adtions for producing \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen. In comparison: on geographical scale, this area the size of Vyshneve (a town in the Kyiv Oblast) or of Mykolaiv, respectively.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There might be enough land to accom\u00admodate powerful renewable electricity production facil\u00adities, especially consid\u00adering the capabil\u00adities of offshore WPPs, but this approach does not take into account certain specifics of every region and its renewable energy potential.<\/p>\n

Besides the avail\u00adability of land, the uninter\u00adruptible access to signif\u00adicant water resources is another important factor in the operation of electrolysis plants for the production of \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen.<\/p>\n

According to estimates<\/a>, the total consumption of water to produce hydrogen from SPPs and WPPs may reach approx\u00adi\u00admately 22\u201332 liters per kilogram of hydrogen on average.<\/p>\n

Therefore, depending on technologies, Ukraine would require between 16.25 and 23.63 billion litres of water per year to produce \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

At the same time, Ukraine has one of the lowest water avail\u00adability indicators among European countries: approx\u00adi\u00admately 1 thousand cubic meters<\/a> per resident. Water avail\u00adability differs<\/a> signif\u00adi\u00adcantly between regions of Ukraine, and the scarcity of water is especially acute in southern regions.<\/p>\n

Therefore, water resources are signif\u00adi\u00adcantly limited in Ukraine. Even though the country has access to seawater, it would have to be desali\u00adnated. That, in turn, would only make hydrogen production projects more expensive.<\/p>\n

The above calcu\u00adla\u00adtions are only estimates, but it is already obvious that substantial resources would be needed not only to meet the domestic demand for \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen and deriv\u00adative products (ammonia, fertil\u00adizers) but also for exports. It means not only the land use but also invest\u00adments in wind and solar power gener\u00adation, and especially access to water resources, which in the condi\u00adtions of adaptation to climate change could become even more scarce.<\/p>\n

\n

DiXi Group is a Kyiv think tank involved in research and consul\u00adta\u00adtions in the energy sphere \u2013 on the cross\u00adroads of politics, public relations, safety, and investments.<\/em><\/p>\n

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