{"id":45406,"date":"2022-03-22T21:03:32","date_gmt":"2022-03-22T20:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=45406"},"modified":"2022-05-06T10:58:05","modified_gmt":"2022-05-06T08:58:05","slug":"lough-russia-must-be-defeated-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/lough-russia-must-be-defeated-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia must be defeated in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Szene aus dem zerbombten Kyjiw, Februar 2022; Foto: Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine is reaching a perilous stage. The West needs to step up efforts to make Putin\u2019s war unwinnable. Conces\u00adsions will only prolong his regime and increase Moscow\u2019s appetite to expand its borders in other direc\u00adtions, argues John Lough.<\/h2>\n

Ukrainians are fighting to save their country. Their history gives them an unerring sense of what is at stake in their struggle against Russia. The revolu\u00adtions of 2004 and 2014 were responses to Moscow\u2019s efforts to keep Ukraine in its embrace. The goal of Russia\u2019s brutal invasion is to eliminate Ukraine\u2019s sover\u00adeignty, backed by the threat to destroy its economy if it refuses to surrender.<\/p>

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This stark reality is now confronting western govern\u00adments, yet they are strug\u00adgling to comprehend what they see. While Russia has reinforced its stereo\u00adtypical image of a country hostile to western values and violent in its behaviour, Ukrainians have unexpectedly emerged as a people bravely defending European principles in a broader struggle between the democ\u00adratic world and the forces of authoritarianism.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s invasion has under\u00adlined where Ukraine belongs. For European public opinion, Ukraine is no longer a country hovering on the dark fringes of Europe that blur into Russia. The blood spilt by its people in their desperate battle to assert their basic rights has secured Ukraine\u2019s recog\u00adnition as part of the European family of nations.<\/p>\n

Testament to this is the outpouring of sympathy across Europe for the suffering of Ukrainian civilians and the readiness to support those who have fled the horrors of war. This reaction marks a remarkable break\u00adthrough in Ukraine\u2019s efforts to join modern Europe. Its aspira\u00adtions stand in sharp contrast to Russia\u2019s backward neo-imperial project aimed at re-estab\u00adlishing itself as a Great Power with decisive influence over European affairs.<\/p>\n

The challenge for Ukrainians is to go beyond this initial victory and defeat the Russian aggressor. The prize could not be greater. The successful defence of Ukraine\u2019s sover\u00adeignty would re-shape the European continent and dramat\u00adi\u00adcally accel\u00aderate the country\u2019s integration with the European Union and NATO. It would most likely usher in a period of deep internal reforms in Russia itself, as was the case after Russia\u2019s humil\u00adi\u00adation in the Crimean War nearly 170 years ago.<\/p>\n

By contrast, if Ukraine were to stop halfway and bow to Russian demands to give up the right to choose its alliances and recognize its terri\u00adtorial losses, such conces\u00adsions would not only emasculate the country\u2019s sover\u00adeignty, they would also prolong the life of the Putin regime and increase its appetite to expand its borders in other directions.<\/p>\n

The war is now reaching a perilous stage for both Kyiv and Moscow, with both sides in a race against time.<\/p>\n

On the Ukrainian side, civilian losses are mounting, critical infra\u00adstructure is under increasing attack while millions more people face the prospect of fleeing their homes. As the Russian Army seeks to extend its control of Ukraine\u2019s south, the loss of access to its main ports could have devas\u00adtating conse\u00adquences for the economy. It is not clear how long the country can maintain this level of resistance.<\/p>\n

In the case of Russia, President Putin\u2019s confident claims that his military campaign is going to plan ring hollow. There are indica\u00adtions that parts of the invasion force are experi\u00adencing serious morale problems because of heavy losses of soldiers and equipment, as well as high levels of casualties.<\/p>\n

Russian military planners appear to have under\u00ades\u00adti\u00admated Ukrainian resis\u00adtance that has proved effective at destroying, disrupting supply lines and exploiting the vulner\u00ada\u00adbil\u00adities of poorly coordi\u00adnated Russian forma\u00adtions. The response of military commanders has been to avoid fighting in major urban centres as much as possible and to shell cities from a distance. The tempo of the advance has slowed signif\u00adi\u00adcantly, and there are increasing signs that the Ukrainian side is fighting the Russians into a bloody stalemate.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s negoti\u00adation dilemma<\/h2>\n

Putin\u2019s goal of changing Ukraine\u2019s government looks impos\u00adsible, and the pressure is growing for him to move the action from the battle\u00adfield to the negoti\u00adating table. Yet, he cannot begin to negotiate without strength\u00adening his position on the battlefield.<\/p>\n

In addition to Russia\u2019s military problems, western sanctions have turned out to be stronger than Moscow expected. As days and weeks pass, their effects will be increas\u00adingly felt across Russia and could start to create popular discontent. Dissat\u00adis\u00adfaction within the elites with Putin\u2019s Ukraine policy does not appear to be an issue at present, but might easily become one if, for example, military morale collapsed and large numbers of soldiers refused to fight.<\/p>\n

Western commitment is key<\/h2>\n

The key factor is whether western countries are committed to supporting Ukraine to defeat Russia. NATO has stuck to the position that it is not a party to the conflict for fear of being drawn into a direct military confrontation with Russia. It has under\u00adstandably said that it will not establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine but has failed to add that it will instead help Ukraine protect its skies by providing it with the necessary air defence systems and weaponry.<\/p>\n

Many NATO countries are now supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, but collec\u00adtively appear fearful of saying directly that Putin must be defeated. This is despite Russia believing that it is at war not just with Ukraine but its western partners, especially the US. In their diplomacy, NATO has ceded ground to Putin by not responding directly to Putin\u2019s threats to use nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

What western countries say and do over the next two weeks will have a critical bearing on the outcome of the war. Ukraine needs more support in the form of both weapons deliv\u00aderies and sanctions against Russia to obtain a decisive advantage in this war. Ukrainians also need to have their morale boosted. They need to hear western capitals state clearly that they are going to help make Putin\u2019s war unwinnable for Russia.<\/p>\n

For the US and its European allies, it is not just Ukraine\u2019s sover\u00adeignty that is at stake. Russia is continuing to ride roughshod over estab\u00adlished principles for managing European security, based on the duty of states to settle disputes by peaceful means. The inade\u00adquate response of NATO\u2019s countries to Russia\u2019s annex\u00adation of Crimea in 2014 demon\u00adstrated to Putin that they would not stand in the way of a further Russian attack on Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Now is the time for western countries to tell Moscow that they will not lift the Draconian sanctions adopted after February 24th <\/sup>until Ukraine\u2019s terri\u00adtorial integrity in the borders of 1991 has been fully restored. Returning Crimea and occupied Donbas to Ukrainian sover\u00adeignty will be a complex issue that can only take place over many years, but Ukrainians need to know that it is on the agenda.<\/p>\n

The EU must also find stronger language to demon\u00adstrate to Ukraine that it sees its future in the European Union and will take all possible steps to accel\u00aderate its accession.<\/p>\n

Words are also a weapon in war.<\/p>\n

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John Lough is an associate fellow of Chatham House\u2019s Russia & Eurasia Programme and a consultant with Highgate, a strategic advisory firm. He has worked in public affairs for many years and was an inter\u00adna\u00adtional affairs manager with the Russian-British oil company TNK-BP from 2003 to 2008. Before that, he spent six years with NATO and was the first Alliance repre\u00adsen\u00adtative in Moscow (1995\u201398).<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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