{"id":45826,"date":"2022-04-12T10:02:12","date_gmt":"2022-04-12T08:02:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=45826"},"modified":"2022-05-06T10:57:19","modified_gmt":"2022-05-06T08:57:19","slug":"frenyo-hungary-orban-re-election-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/frenyo-hungary-orban-re-election-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Hungary\u2019s Relations with Russia, the EU and NATO: What to Expect After the Re-election of Viktor Orb\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

Photo: Attila Volgyi \/\u200b Imago Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

Just a day after the first videos of the Bucha massacre were posted to social media<\/a>, on 3 April 2022, Hungary\u2019s FIDESZ-Christian Democ\u00adratic alliance won its fourth consec\u00adutive landslide victory with 54,10%, over 3 million votes, keeping their two-thirds majority in parliament, inten\u00adsi\u00adfying the EU\u2019s conundrum of how to cope with autocratic leaders and whether Hungary would continue its political tightrope of being an EU and NATO member state while further isolating itself on an illiberal, pro-Putin path.<\/h2>\n

<\/p>\n

Vladimir Putin swiftly offered his congrat\u00adu\u00adla\u00adtions to Viktor Orb\u00e1n for his victory and, according to the Kremlin<\/a>, expressed confi\u00addence that \u201cdespite the difficult inter\u00adna\u00adtional situation, the further devel\u00adopment of a bilateral partnership fully meets the interests of the peoples of Russia and Hungary.\u201d Another dubious friend, Donald Trump gave his seal of approval<\/a> to Orb\u00e1n: \u201cI am grateful for your continued friendship and enduring commitment to fighting for the ideals you and I cherish: freedom, patriotic pride, and liberty.\u201d Marine Le Pen tweeted<\/a>: \u201cWhen the people vote, the people win!\u201d Orb\u00e1n, in his victory speech, cocked a snook at Brussels bureau\u00adcrats, George Soros, the inter\u00adna\u00adtional mainstream media, and even the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, as the \u201coverwhelming forces\u201d against which FIDESZ had had to fight against in the election campaign.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Hungary\u2019s isolation continues inside the EU. Orb\u00e1n\u2019s attitude to the war in Ukraine has distanced him from his counter\u00adparts in the Visegr\u00e1d group, comprising the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. Even his longstanding Polish ally Jaros\u0142aw Kaczy\u0144ski has slammed him on several occasions.<\/p>\n

Two days after Orb\u00e1n\u2019s re-election, the EU launched its previ\u00adously uncharted rule-of-law condi\u00adtion\u00adality mechanism against Hungary. Designed to prevent EU funds from being misused by countries bending the rule of law, this could ultimately retain critical EU funding from the country.<\/p>\n

Anti-LGBTQ and anti-war<\/h3>\n

Despite pre-election polls suggesting a tense chase, the opposi\u00adtional six-party alliance (repre\u00adsenting a broad political range from far-right to green to left-liberal) did 20 % worse than the election winner, i.e. gaining 34,46%, less than 2 million votes. Roughly 900 000 voters<\/a> who, in 2018, voted for one of these opposi\u00adtional parties have now disap\u00adpeared. Certain political analysts assume that a part of them have turned to the radical right-wing Our Homeland Movement. The latter got into parliament with vice president D\u00f3ra D\u00far\u00f3, infamous for shredding a fairy tale book containing LGBTQ characters.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n also used this topic as an added fillip to \u201cdefend tradi\u00adtional values\u201d in his electoral campaign, with a refer\u00adendum on \u201cLGBTQ propa\u00adganda\u201d held together with the parlia\u00admentary elections. Yet what probably convinced most electors was Orb\u00e1n\u2019s narrative of \u201cstrategic calmness\u201d and nailing his electoral colours to stay out of the war in the neigh\u00adbouring country, while casting the opposition as pro-war<\/a> and himself as a peacekeeper.<\/p>\n

The Hungarian government\u2019s attitude to those fleeing the war in Ukraine is radically different from that of 2015. \u201cThose arriving here from Ukraine are coming to a friendly place\u201d, Orb\u00e1n assured<\/a> following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. According to P\u00e9ter<\/a> Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hungary has so far let 575 000 refugees enter the country from Ukraine, and has been offering human\u00adi\u00adtarian aid. In his Facebook live following the meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs on 7 April, he staunchly insisted on not sending weapons to Ukraine and not allowing weapon transfer to Ukraine directly through Hungary<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hungary\u2019s public media, forced to toe the government line, has been severely<\/a> criti\u00adcised<\/a> for hosting analysts whose inter\u00adpre\u00adtation of the events in Ukraine resembled that of Kremlin propa\u00adganda. The NGO Corruption Research Center Budapest pointed out<\/a> that the latter also appeared in the termi\u00adnology used by the website of the Hungarian Ministry of Defence. According to their analysis of the website\u2019s content between 24 February and 10 March, the ministry tended to use the NATO narrative of a war initiated by Russia, the aggressor, against Ukraine, the victim,<\/em> when reporting about an inter\u00adna\u00adtional event with NATO partners. Otherwise, the language used by the ministry tended to use neutral terms without clearly blaming the respon\u00adsi\u00adbility on Russia.<\/p>\n

Orb\u00e1n\u2019s peacock dance between Putin and the EU<\/h3>\n

With most of Hungary\u2019s gas and nuclear power relying on Russia and the govern\u00adment\u2019s pledge to preserve the security of gas supply to its citizens\u2019 house\u00adholds, Orb\u00e1n\u2019s answer to REUTERS at his inter\u00adna\u00adtional press conference<\/a> on 6 April seems plausible: \u201cHungary would be ready to pay in roubles if Russia asked so.\u201d Only: This goes against EU efforts seeking a united front to oppose Moscow\u2019s request, following Western economic sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Yet Orb\u00e1n also highlighted the impor\u00adtance of Hungary\u2019s EU and NATO member\u00adships and their willingness to further strengthen these alliances in terms of security and building a much stronger army. NATO troops have recently been deployed to Hungary as well, in an attempt to increase military presence along the alliance\u2019s eastern flank.<\/p>\n

He even claimed on 6 April that \u201cin this situation\u201d Hungary and Russia were \u201copposing one another\u201d and that Russia would consider Hungary an \u201cunfriendly country\u201d. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had earlier declared<\/a> a list of countries including the EU considered as unfriendly due to the economic sanctions imposed on Russia. Orb\u00e1n condemned the war as an \u201caggression\u201d, which \u201cRussia started by attacking Ukraine\u201d, adding that Hungary shared the EU\u2019s stand. Hungary had a special position \u201con the eastern border of the western world\u201d and was \u201cintran\u00adsigent\u201d concerning peace because of the 200,000 ethnic Hungarians living in Ukraine for whom Hungary \u201cbears responsibility\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia and their rights were often areas of conflict between Ukraine and Hungary before the outbreak of the current war, a topic that could easily be exploited by Russian interests, critics say.<\/p>\n

Orb\u00e1n also stated that the sanctions and the pressure from Westerners could poten\u00adtially destroy the network of contacts that he had built up with Russia since 2008 and that a deep change was about to come, be it a new iron curtain or reparable damages. He explained his proximity to Putin as a long-term conse\u00adquence of the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008 when neither Ukraine nor Georgia were accepted into NATO, which Orb\u00e1n had severely criti\u00adcised<\/a> back then, as well as fiercely condemning the Russian invasion of Georgia and comparing it to the 1956 invasion of Hungary when Soviet tanks had crushed the Hungarian revolution.<\/p>\n

Orb\u00e1n: \u201cThat\u2019s when I under\u00adstood that times are changing. Until 2008, the West was basically gaining ground, expressed through NATO\u2019s expansion, and in 2008 (\u2026) they could have voted for this, the Russians were weak enough too, they would\u2019ve had to accept it. And then the West decided, we decided not to accept them. I under\u00adstood then that from now on, these would be the power relations for a long time in Europe. And then we developed a new Russian policy. That\u2019s when I reached out to President Putin sometime around 2009, and (\u2026) under\u00adstood that Russia would be a part of the archi\u00adtecture of European security, (\u2026) because the new border was born, which separates the world of NATO from the Russians. And between the two there\u2019s a network of buffer states, Georgians in the south, and here, (\u2026) to the west of Russia, the Ukrainians.\u201d<\/p>\n

The inves\u00adtigative journalists\u2019 group Direkt 36<\/a> described at length how the personal and business relations between Orb\u00e1n and Putin have evolved ever since. Referring to FIDESZ sources they reported: \u201cOrb\u00e1n felt that it was pointless to get tough with the Russians over Georgia if Western countries continued to do business with Moscow in the meantime. He also estimated that the (\u2026) 2008 economic crisis would result in a complete geopo\u00adlitical shift in favour of the Eastern powers.\u201d<\/p>\n

The peacock dance is likely to continue in the future. When asked by CNN\u2019s Chris\u00adtiane Amanpour where the red line was to belong to the community of nations, EU Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen<\/a> responded: \u201cWe have to be clear. So far the Hungarians did stick to every sanction and measure we took and I think we should not judge a country before they have not broken the rules, for example. My job is to keep the 27 (EU member countries) together.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Textende\"[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][vc_column_text]Hat Ihnen unser Beitrag gefallen? Dann spenden Sie doch einfach und bequem \u00fcber unser Spendentool. Sie unter\u00adst\u00fctzen damit die publizis\u00adtische Arbeit von LibMod.<\/p>\n

Spenden mit Bankeinzug<\/h2>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]