{"id":46850,"date":"2022-05-27T11:39:10","date_gmt":"2022-05-27T09:39:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=46850"},"modified":"2022-06-08T11:52:50","modified_gmt":"2022-06-08T09:52:50","slug":"input-paper-shulga-eu-candidate-status-for-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/input-paper-shulga-eu-candidate-status-for-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Input Paper \u201cEU candidate status for Ukraine\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: Presi\u00addential Office of Ukraine<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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As part of our project \u201cEastern Partnership Plus\u201d we publish a series of input papers on the topic: Perspec\u00adtives and Pathways to EU Candidate Status for Ukraine, Georgia and the Republic of Moldova.<\/h2>\n

For Ukraine, Dmytro Shulga analyzes the Political situation and formu\u00adlates his political recom\u00admen\u00adda\u00adtions to decision-makers in Berlin and Brussels as to why the EU should become a geopo\u00adlitical actor and grant the trio EU can\u00addi\u00addate status in June.<\/h2>\n

<\/h2>\n

We are living in historical times for Europe which require historical political decisions. Russian full- scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a definite end of the post-Cold war period in Europe. It\u2019s a historic Zeiten\u00adwende <\/em><\/strong>for Germany and for Europe as a whole.<\/p>\n

Imple\u00admenting the long-time aspira\u00adtions of Ukrainian people, on 28 February 2022, on the 5th<\/sup> day of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion, President V. Zelensky submitted Ukraine\u2019s appli\u00adcation for EU membership.<\/p>\n

According to the EU Treaty (Art.49), a European state which respects European values1<\/sup> may apply to become a member of the EU. The EU member states should make unanimous decisions <\/em><\/strong>2<\/sup>, after consulting the European Commission and the European Parliament<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

In practice, first, the EU member states <\/em>should consider the appli\u00adcation and unani\u00admously decide on granting the applicant a candidate country status<\/em><\/strong>. Then, they can also decide to open accession negoti\u00ada\u00adtions <\/em><\/strong>with the candidate that focus on 35 chapters \u2013 specific policy areas with adoption and imple\u00admen\u00adtation of the EU\u2019s body of law (the \u2018acquis\u2019). When negoti\u00ada\u00adtions are success\u00adfully finalized, an accession treaty <\/em><\/strong>should be unani\u00admously concluded.<\/p>\n

Following Ukraine\u2019s appli\u00adcation, already on 1 March 2022, the European Parliament provided its opinion of supporting granting EU candidate status to Ukraine<\/em><\/strong>. That resolution was adopted by an overwhelming majority of 637 MEPs in favour <\/em><\/strong>(out of total 705). Then, on 7 March, the EU member states (Council of the EU) requested opinion of the European Commission.<\/p>\n

In the Versailles decla\u00adration of the informal EU summit<\/em><\/strong>, 10\u201311 March 2022, the leaders of the EU member states agreed that \u2018pending this [the Commission\u2019s opinion on Ukraine\u2019s appli\u00adcation] and without delay, we will further strengthen our bonds and deepen our partnership to support Ukraine in pursuing its European path. Ukraine belongs to our European family<\/strong><\/em>\u2019.<\/p>\n

Subse\u00adquently, following the standard method\u00adology of preparing its opinion, on 8 April, European Commission asked Ukrainian government to provide necessary infor\u00admation by filling in a question\u00adnaire, which Ukrainian government did on 9 May.<\/p>\n

Now, the European Commission is preparing its opinion on Ukraine\u2019s appli\u00adcation<\/em><\/strong>, presenting results of analysis of the country\u2019s meeting the political, economic and sectoral membership criteria (level of approx\u00adi\u00admation to the EU\u2019s acquis)3<\/sup>. It is antic\u00adi\u00adpated that the EC opinion will be ready in early June and that it will be positive \u2013 i.e. it will recommend to grant Ukraine candidate status.<\/p>\n

Following that, the political decision will have to be met by member states at the European Council on 23\u201324 June<\/em><\/strong>. Either they will provide candidate status to Ukraine (and formulate condi\u00adtions for opening accession negoti\u00ada\u00adtions) or will not provide it by offering something less (a \u2018potential candidate\u2019 status with some precon\u00addi\u00adtions for getting the real candidate status, or just some language on a \u2018membership perspective\u2019) or will just postpone the decision if there will be no consensus.<\/p>\n

Eight reasons why Germany has to support granting EU candidate status to Ukraine<\/h2>\n

Reason I<\/u>: Because it is supported by absolute majority of EU citizens, including in Germany<\/em>.<\/h3>\n

After the Russian full-scale invasion, public opinion in the EU towards Ukraine has changed dramat\u00adi\u00adcally. A public opinion poll held in March 2022 by the French Jean Jaures foundation showed support for Ukraine\u2019s entry into the EU at the level of 69% in Germany, 62% in France, 71% in Italy, 91% in Poland. According to the study, in Germany, support for membership is as high as 71% among CDU supporters and even higher \u2014 79% \u2014 among those of the SPD. Even in eastern Germany, where opposition to enlargement tradi\u00adtionally runs high, 56% were in favor. Only a majority of AfD supporters remained hostile (59%)4<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

The official EU public opinion monitoring tool, Eurobarometer, showed similar results in its survey done in April 2022 at the request of the European Commission. According to this official EU data, 66% of EU citizens support Ukraine\u2019s membership in the EU. In Germany, it is 61% support<\/em><\/strong>5<\/sup>.<\/p>\n


\n<\/u>Reason II: Because it\u2019s just a candidate status<\/em>, it\u2019s not membership, and membership will take years.<\/h3>\n

Recog\u00adnizing Ukraine an EU candidate does not mean joining the EU, it just opens a possi\u00adbility for (lengthy) accession negoti\u00ada\u00adtions which results are not guaranteed.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

There is no \u2018fast-track\u2019 or \u2018shortcut\u2019 to EU membership, there is standard procedure. Ukraine\u2019s expec\u00adtation now is just \u2018fast movement through the standard track<\/em><\/strong>\u2019. First of all, Ukrainian government demon\u00adstrates its own readiness and capacity to go through all necessary technical steps as fast as possible, and expects the EU to do the same. For example, in the time of war, it took Ukrainian government just a month to fill in the question\u00adnaire of the European Commission which took previous applicant countries many months (sometimes more than a year) to complete.<\/p>\n

Still, it is clear that joining the EU will take years even in the best-\/fast-case scenario. In recent history of successful EU enlarge\u00adments of the past two decades, the period of negoti\u00ada\u00adtions, from official opening to successful closing, took from 3 to 6 years6<\/sup>. Plus, it takes 1\u20132 years for official signa\u00adtures, ratifi\u00adca\u00adtions and entering into force. So, even in the best-case scenario of granting candidate status in June 2022 and an early opening of accession negoti\u00ada\u00adtions, and their successful conclusion, Ukraine will be able to join the EU not earlier than in 5 \u2014 7 years <\/em><\/strong>if every\u00adthing goes well.<\/p>\n

Reason III: Because Ukraine objec\u00adtively deserves this status by meeting the criteria.<\/em><\/h3>\n

There is a universal consensus in Ukrainian government as well as civil society <\/em><\/strong>that Ukraine deserves EU candidate status not because of some prefer\u00adential treatment but for objective reasons of having achieved signif\u00adicant progress in approx\u00adi\u00admation to the EU and thus meeting the necessary criteria<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Ukraine started approx\u00adi\u00admation to the EU acquis more than two decades ago. Before submitting EU appli\u00adcation, Ukraine has been imple\u00admenting Associ\u00adation Agreement for 8 years <\/em><\/strong>since its signature 2014. This is a very advanced agreement as it already covers the largest majority of EU acquis<\/em><\/strong>. By 2017, Ukraine has success\u00adfully imple\u00admented visa liber\u00adal\u00adization criteria which helped to set up and launch the whole insti\u00adtu\u00adtional framework of fighting corruption. The Associ\u00adation Agreement\u2019s provi\u00adsions on Deep and Compre\u00adhensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), applied since 2016, foresee a deep level of sectoral integration to the Single Market7<\/sup>. In practical terms it is as if Ukraine has already opened all accession negoti\u00ada\u00adtions chapters8<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Progress in imple\u00admenting Associ\u00adation Agreement is subject to regular annual assess\u00adments by the European Commission, and additional expert evalu\u00ada\u00adtions have been done in a number of sectors. In 2021, Ukrainian government and the European Commission conducted a compre\u00adhensive assessment of the level of attainment of all the objec\u00adtives of the Associ\u00adation Agreement. According to Ukrainian government\u2019s estima\u00adtions, 63% of the necessary homework under the Associ\u00adation Agreement has been already imple\u00admented <\/em><\/strong>by the end of 20219<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Though the European Commission did not present its own percentage estimate to compare, but the key indicator was that over 2020\u201321, European Commission started to prepare a number of decisions on further Ukraine\u2019s sectoral integration to the Single market in recog\u00adnition of the \u2018homework\u2019 done <\/em><\/strong>by Ukraine under respective Associ\u00adation Agreement\u2019s chapters (on customs, technical regula\u00adtions, e- commu\u00adni\u00adca\u00adtions, public procurement etc.)10<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

In the rule of law area, a solid anti-corruption insti\u00adtu\u00adtional framework had been set up and working, and continues to work during wartime. Most problematic seemed the courts system, so in 2021, new strategy and legis\u00adlation to provide for reform of gover\u00adnance of the judiciary system was adopted and started being imple\u00admented with EU support \u2013 and is being continued now during wartime. Therefore, Ukrainian civil society calls on EU to recognize reform achieve\u00adments <\/em><\/strong>(actually, achieved jointly \u2014 with the EU\u2019s support and engagement) and to grant Ukraine EU candidate status, which would be the most effective framework for further reform promotion11<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Foto: privat<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In fact, because of Associ\u00adation Agreement imple\u00admen\u00adtation monitoring and evalu\u00adation done, the European Commission already possessed suffi\u00adcient knowledge of Ukraine before starting reviewing its membership appli\u00adcation. Still, it asked Ukrainian government to respond to a question\u00adnaire of almost the same size as for other recent appli\u00adcants12<\/sup>. In wartime, Ukrainian government managed to provide responses to the whole question\u00adnaire just in a month <\/em><\/strong>(when it took up to a year or even more for other appli\u00adcants to fill in such a question\u00adnaire) and in high-quality (as no follow- up questions were received from the European Commission).<\/p>\n

In general, during wartime, Ukraine\u2019s insti\u00adtu\u00adtions demon\u00adstrated surpris\u00adingly high stability and function\u00adality \u2013 and actually, previous approx\u00adi\u00admation to the EU acquis and policies contributed to this resilience. A good example is successful testing of Ukraine\u2019s electricity system and its eventual full synchro\u00adnization with European ENTSO\u2011E network in the midst of full- scale war.<\/p>\n

To compare, one can look at European Commission\u2019s opinions and the Council\u2019s decisions on candidate status for previous appli\u00adcants. In 1999, Turkey received candidate status while death penalty was still allowed there. In Western Balkans, candi\u00addates became North Macedonia (2005), Montenegro (2010), Serbia (2012), Albania (2014). Only Bosnia and Herze\u00adgovina and Kosovo remain \u2018potential candi\u00addates\u2019 \u2013 de facto those not meeting even basic criteria. Kosovo is not recog\u00adnized by all EU member states. Bosnia and Herze\u00adgovina, according to European Commission\u2019s opinion (2019), has its consti\u00adtu\u00adtional framework not in line with European standards, and its government was answering the Commission\u2019s question\u00adnaire for 14 months and was not able to answer it in full.<\/p>\n

Thus, there is a strong consensus opinion in Ukraine that the country is already more advanced than \u2018potential candi\u00addates\u2019 and therefore is objec\u00adtively qualified for the status of EU candidate<\/em><\/strong>13<\/sup>. It is expected that the European Commission\u2019s opinion will confirm this.<\/p>\n

Reason IV<\/u>: Because Ukrainian society expects this recog\u00adnition of its fight for European values<\/em>.<\/h3>\n

Public opinion in Ukraine has been always supportive for EU membership. In 2019, the goal of seeking EU membership was even enshrined in Ukraine\u2019s Consti\u00adtution. Since the full-scale Russian invasion, the public support for EU membership in Ukraine <\/em><\/strong>skyrocketed to 91%<\/em><\/strong>14<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

There is universal consensus among political elites <\/em><\/strong>in the government and in opposition, and among civil society \u2013 including watchdog groups which monitor and promote the rule of law reforms, and also including social partners15<\/sup>. Joining the EU has become a part of the current Ukrainian national idea, together with defeating Russian invasion.<\/p>\n

There is also a broad under\u00adstanding that Ukraine is literally defending the common funda\u00admental European values of human dignity, freedom and democracy.<\/p>\n

\n

here is our eu membership appli\u00adcation pic.twitter.com\/SvqKC1uCZw<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 maksym.eristavi \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6\ud83c\udff3\ufe0f\u200d\ud83c\udf08 (@maksymeristavi) April 3, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n