{"id":50906,"date":"2022-11-17T16:56:42","date_gmt":"2022-11-17T15:56:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/network-russia-vilnius-meeting-opening-ralf-fuecks-copy\/"},"modified":"2024-06-27T10:47:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T08:47:00","slug":"rethinking-russia-conference-report-vilnius","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/rethinking-russia-conference-report-vilnius\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cRethinking Russia\u201d: Containment, Deter\u00adrence, Regime Change?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

(c) Olga Posa\u0161kova, Lietuvos Respub\u00adlikos Seimas<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine has upended not just relations with the West but is testing the inter\u00adna\u00adtional system as a whole. The urgent need for new thinking has prompted the Center of Liberal Modernity to set up its Expert Network Russia<\/a>, which met in Vilnius under the headline \u201cRethinking Russia\u201d for the first time on 31 October.<\/h3>\n

The network will be a platform for analysis and policy debate, LibMod founding director Ralf F\u00fccks said. At the heart of the first meeting, which was held in cooper\u00adation with the Lithuanian Seimas, was the question about the nature of the current Russian regime. Russia\u2019s vicious war against Ukraine has prompted even long-term critics of Vladimir Putin\u2019s regime to recon\u00adsider their view of Russian society and politics. \u201cYou cannot talk about proper Russia policy without under\u00adstanding Russia,\u201d F\u00fccks stressed.[\/vc_column_text][vc_message]<\/p>\n

Much of the conference was held under Chatham House rules, which is why this report does not identify most conference participants.<\/em><\/h2>\n

Read this report in German here<\/a>.<\/h2>\n

[\/vc_message][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

\u201cDiscussing the future of Russia has become like discussing life after death\u201d, was one of the opening sentences in the panel which discussed future scenarios and conse\u00adquences for Western policies. Should we continue to reach out to those Russians who oppose Putin\u2019s regime and want to be part of the West? Or should we focus on deter\u00adrence and containment and treat Russia not as a normal country but as an empire or even a prison state? Or should we do both?<\/p>\n

The engagement versus containment debate was dominant in the discussion, albeit nobody convinc\u00adingly claimed that they are incom\u00adpatible, because they are aimed at different target groups: containment is for the regime, dialogue and cooper\u00adation for the democ\u00adratic opposition.<\/p>\n

Call for support for \u201cthe other Russia\u201d<\/h3>\n

While the \u201cRussia-skeptics\u201d argued that Russian liberals are often fake liberals, who happily trade democracy for consumption (jeans in the 1990s, iPhones in the 2020s), the \u201cRussia-optimists\u201d maintained that economic and cultural modern\u00adization over the past two decades had lasting effects on Russian society. While a quick return to democracy is unlikely, Russia is not destined for autocracy, because there is another, pro-western Russia, which is currently under attack from the Kremlin regime, which deserves all our support, they argued.<\/p>\n

What is needed to enable Russia to make the transition from imperial nostalgia to democ\u00adratic values? For democracy is not a Western privilege \u2013 and Russians have a right to dream of democracy, just like Lithua\u00adnians and Ukrainians. However, believers in Russian democracy are currently a minority in Europe \u2014 a win for Putin, who did every\u00adthing to convince the West that Russians are a \u201cwild\u201d nation of non-democ\u00adratic easterners. But not believing in democracy in Russia would be a strategic mistake: \u201cDemocracy is the only medicine for the tragedy of Russia and for security on the European continent!\u201d, another repre\u00adsen\u00adtative of the engagement camp exclaimed.<\/p>\n

Such idealism is easy to challenge. Ho can the West assist, let alone achieve such changes inside Russia, when so many of the liberal elites have left the country? Here, again, there are optimists and pessimists: The former say that while many have emigrated, much of liberal Russia is still active inside the country, but does not get noticed much because of suppression and censorship. The latter see an overaged and de-intel\u00adlec\u00adtu\u00adalized society, that cannot achieve political change itself. \u201cWhat tools does the West have to bring down Putin\u201d, asked one partic\u00adipant and drew parallels to Germany 1945: \u201cHow can we change Russia from abroad when we cannot occupy it?\u201d<\/p>\n

There were practical propo\u00adsi\u00adtions, first and foremost regarding sanctions. \u201cSmart sanctions\u201d means allowing to lift them for individuals who credibly criticize the regime. The current, system treats Russia as a monolithic country and results in \u201cgood people remaining locked in with Putin\u201d, the argument goes.<\/p>\n

All partic\u00adi\u00adpants agreed that a Russian military defeat in Ukraine is an essential precon\u00addition for any democ\u00adratic change. A successful democ\u00adratic Ukraine can help to bring Russia back to a democ\u00adratic path. \u201cThis is a historic moment that reminds me of late 1980s\u201d, said one of them, calling for a \u201cBerlin Wall momentum\u201d to destroy the \u201cKremlin wall of autocracy, kleptocracy and aggression\u201d.<\/p>\n

Wanted: A total overhaul of European security<\/h3>\n

However, the outcome will be defining not only for Russia but also for Europe. And just as for Russia, there are also different scenarios for how the future security archi\u00adtecture should look like, which were discussed in the third panel, where partic\u00adi\u00adpants called for a \u201ctotal overhaul of European security\u201d in the light of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

To deter Russia from regrouping and attacking again, Ukraine should be granted NATO membership, was one central recom\u00admen\u00addation. The argument \u201cdo not provoke Russia\u201d should be discarded, because it amounts to a recog\u00adnition of Moscow\u2019s imperi\u00adalism. If history is of any lesson, then it is that Russia is provoked more by non-action than by action.<\/p>\n

But for a lasting security archi\u00adtecture, Ukraine essen\u00adtially also needs to become a successful EU member like the Baltic states and Poland: \u201cIf Ukraine succeeds in its democ\u00adratic free-market trans\u00adfor\u00admation, that would put the light off (from) Putin\u2019s argument that Russia must have a special path of kleptocracy and foreign aggression\u201d, went one strong argument.<\/p>\n

Ukraine was given EU candidate status in June \u2013 and partic\u00adi\u00adpants stressed, that the Euromaidan protesters of 2013\/\u200b14 were waiving European and not NATO flags. But the hard work ahead to bring Ukraine fully into EU and NATO needs to be done jointly and not by individual countries: \u201cNational policies do not matter because we are in a war \u2026 it is about life and death,\u201d one of the panelists stated.<\/p>\n

\u201cPutin is losing in areas you least expect\u201d<\/h3>\n

The fourth and last panel brought some little-expected positive news about the tradi\u00adtionally pro-Putin populist parties in Europe. Facing dramatic declines in support, some of them, like Marine Le Pen of France, have swung to support Ukraine in the war. \u201cPutin is losing power in EU in areas you least expect,\u201d was one of the panel\u2019s conclusions.<\/p>\n

However, everybody agreed that more should and can be done. One strong warning was that apart from Russia, Turkey and China are also encroaching on European security. The recent spat about a Chinese investor in the port of Hamburg prompted a call for joint efforts to avoid any \u201cfuture Nord Stream 2s\u201d all over Europe.<\/p>\n

But in the end, all eyes returned to Ukraine. The outcome of the war will be defining for Europe and Russia, F\u00fccks said. The challenges faced by our societies ahead are huge: \u201cWe have to renew and rebuild democracy at home. Make democracy great again,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

 <\/i><\/p>\n

\"Textende\"[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

Videos of the Conference<\/h2>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_basic_grid post_type=\u201cpost\u201d max_items=\u201c3\u201d item=\u201c24066\u201d grid_id=\u201cvc_gid:1679397528666-ce8b5b52-a08f\u20114\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1669818345167{background-color: #ffffff !important;}\u201d taxonomies=\u201c15030\u201d][vc_separator][vc_column_text]Did you like thike this article? If yes, you can support the independent editorial work and journalism of LibMod via a simple donation tool.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]