{"id":52642,"date":"2023-02-17T16:33:47","date_gmt":"2023-02-17T15:33:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=52642"},"modified":"2023-02-22T16:00:18","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T15:00:18","slug":"discussing-russias-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/discussing-russias-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Discussing Russia\u2019s Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

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During an online discussion, Polish expert Maria Domanska and Russian opposition leader Vladimir Milov presented their policy papers about future scenarios for Russia. Here is what they had to say.<\/h2>\n

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[\/vc_column_text][vc_message message_box_color=\u201cpeacoc\u201d]This discussion is part of the project Inter\u00adna\u00adtional Expert Network Russia<\/a>, which is supported by the German Foreign Ministry.<\/p>\n

A PDF with both papers can be found here<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

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By unleashing a war of aggression against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has tied his political fate to its outcome. There are many indica\u00adtions that Russia may be heading for tumul\u00adtuous times. Different scenarios for a post-Putin Russia are being currently discussed. They range from democ\u00adratic change to further radical\u00adization of the regime and even the disin\u00adte\u00adgration of Russia.<\/p>\n

To contribute to the ongoing debate, the Center of Liberal Modernity (LibMod) has commis\u00adsioned two policy papers on the topic. They were written by Maria Domanska, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, and Vladimir Milov, one of Russia\u2019s best-known opposition figures, who now lives in Vilnius.<\/p>\n

On February 15, we presented them within our Inter\u00adna\u00adtional Expert Network during an online discussion with both authors and LibMod Managing Director Ralf F\u00fccks. LibMod\u2019s Russia Programme Director Maria Sannikova-Franck moderated the discussion.<\/p>\n

F\u00fccks argued that the lack of clarity about Russia\u2019s future leads to strategic ambiva\u00adlences of Western policy toward the war in Ukraine. So far, he said, fears of a possible collapse of the Putin regime following a military defeat in Ukraine seem to dominate. To many, Putin still appears as the \u201clesser evil\u201d compared to a chaotic state collapse or a takeover by \u201ceven worse\u201d forces. But this view fails to recognize that Putin is already the worst case: a regime that can only exist through ever harsher internal repression and aggressive external policies. A return to peaceful coexis\u00adtence with this regime is a dangerous illusion. The West must face up to the question of a future for Russia after Putin.<\/p>\n

Both papers\u2019 authors unani\u00admously argued that Russia is not doomed to remain an imperial dicta\u00adtorship forever. However, they differed in their expec\u00adta\u00adtions of how quickly a democ\u00adratic turnaround will be possible in the country.<\/p>\n

Vladimir Milov pointed out, that rapid political U\u2011turns have occurred frequently in Russian history and that the current Russian elite is oppor\u00adtunistic rather than bound by ideology. He said that Russian aggression is a result of Putin\u2019s \u201cabsolutism\u201d and that there is no bottom-up popular demand for an aggressive imperi\u00adal\u00adistic policies. For this reason, the elite will have strong incen\u00adtives to change the political course once Putin has gone. Milov added that the Russian people want sane politics, free and fair elections, and the rule of law. Many also demand normal\u00adization of relations with the West. According to Milov, the protests that erupted from time to time in various Russian regions in the last years prove that Russians have not lost their basic democ\u00adratic instincts.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s imperial revan\u00adchism has severely poisoned Russian society<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

However, Maria Domanska argued that strong resis\u00adtance from the benefi\u00adciaries of the current regime will run counter to any liber\u00adal\u00adization. Putin\u2019s imperial revan\u00adchism has severely poisoned Russian society, she said. Moreover, the patri\u00admonial notion of the state as being the personal property of the leader and the logic of patron-client relations rooted in Russian political culture are the pillars of Russian author\u00adi\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adanism. A lot of what we have now in Russia is a direct or indirect result of a lack of proper confrontation with Stalinism and its crimes.  At the same time, Domanska highlighted the pragmatism of Russians and their strong demand for self-gover\u00adnance as a positive sign for the long and bumpy reform process.<\/p>\n

Both Domanska and Milov believe that the successor regime will likely be weaker than Putin\u2019s and might temporarily abandon its most aggressive foreign and domestic policies. But Russia will need constant internal and external pressure in order to leave its author\u00adi\u00adtarian path.<\/p>\n

The West needs to work out a new Russia strategy<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Domanska under\u00adlined that Russia\u2019s aggression against Ukraine refuted many assump\u00adtions that have defined Western policy toward Russia for many years. The West needs to work out a new Russia strategy.<\/p>\n

Key elements of this strategy were suggested by the speakers:<\/p>\n