{"id":53863,"date":"2023-05-04T12:44:17","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T10:44:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=53863"},"modified":"2024-04-09T12:55:20","modified_gmt":"2024-04-09T10:55:20","slug":"russia-and-the-west-conference-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/russia-and-the-west-conference-report\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cThe Best Russia Policy Is to Support a&nbsp;Ukrainian Victory\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/O5Nyr-3v2TA?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text]\n<h2><strong>Conference report<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h1><strong><span style=\"color: #663333;\">RUSSIA AND THE&nbsp;WEST<\/span><br>\nLessons&nbsp;Learned?<br>\n<span style=\"color: #663333;\">Western Policy versus&nbsp;Russia<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n<h2>More than 120 experts from a&nbsp;dozen countries attended the fifth edition of our conference \u201cRussia and the West\u201d on 20&nbsp;April in Berlin. The partic\u00adi\u00adpants, including prominent Russian opposition figures in exile, discussed future policy towards Moscow and post-Putin&nbsp;scenarios.<\/h2>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=\u201c1\/2\u201d][vc_btn title=\u201cMore from the Expert Network Russia\u201d color=\u201cpeacoc\u201d size=\u201clg\u201d align=\u201ccenter\u201d link=\u201curl:https%3A%2F%2Flibmod.de%2Fen%2Fnetwork-russia%2F\u201d][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=\u201c1\/2\u201d][vc_btn title=\u201cDieser Artikel auf Deutsch\u201d color=\u201cpeacoc\u201d size=\u201clg\u201d align=\u201ccenter\u201d link=\u201curl:https%3A%2F%2Frusslandverstehen.eu%2Fde%2Frusslandkonferenz-2023-bericht%2F|target:_blank\u201d][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Learning from mistakes can be a&nbsp;difficult exercise. This is also the case with Western policy towards Russia and the conclu\u00adsions we draw with regard to Ukraine: Past mistakes still loom large but they must not be repeated, was a&nbsp;main takeaway of this year\u2019s conference \u201cRussia and the West\u201d \u2013 the second held under the shadow of Russia\u2019s war of&nbsp;aggression.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At the opening, LibMod Director Ralf F\u00fccks dedicated the conference to Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was a&nbsp;partic\u00adipant in 2022 and was arrested in Moscow weeks later. On 17&nbsp;April \u2014 three days before the conference \u2014 he was sentenced to 25&nbsp;years in prison for his criticism of the&nbsp;war.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cUnrestrained external violence and dicta\u00adtorship are two sides of the same coin,\u201d said and added: \u201cOnly a&nbsp;defeat of the Putin regime (in Ukraine) opens the chance for a&nbsp;different Russia that shakes off its imperial curse and finally finds its way out of author\u00adi\u00adtarian rule to&nbsp;democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_basic_grid post_type=\u201cpost\u201d max_items=\u201c2\u201d element_width=\u201c6\u201d item=\u201c48460\u201d grid_id=\u201cvc_gid:1684848894518-d20952a8-5db0\u20112\u201d taxonomies=\u201c15116\u201d][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Putin hopes that he cares more about Ukraine than the&nbsp;West<\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because of this, any talk about Russia\u2019s future needs to focus on the war in Ukraine. Accord\u00adingly, the first panel discussed what needs to be done so that Ukraine can win. The short answer: much more than has been done so&nbsp;far.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Russia is still far from its military goals, but it is waiting for Western fatigue while preparing for a&nbsp;long war, was the unanimous opinion. As one panelist put it: \u201cPutin hopes that he cares more about Ukraine than the West\u201d (we do not attribute quotes because the conference was held under Chatham House&nbsp;Rules).<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another singled out the ongoing fight for Bakhmut, where Russia has been making minimal gains while suffering massive losses for months. The embattled east Ukrainian city shows that a&nbsp;bad war is better for the Kremlin than a&nbsp;bad peace, which would force it to admit&nbsp;mistakes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because of this, it is so important to give long-term and systematic military support to Ukraine. A&nbsp;strong signal for this would be to train Ukrainian pilots on Western fighter&nbsp;planes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the West also has strategic deficits. Despite regular promises to support Kyiv \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d, there is no common vision for Ukraine\u2019s war aims. There is widespread suspicion that many are afraid of a&nbsp;Russian defeat. Yet it is clear that any ambiguity of the West will be utilized by the&nbsp;Kremlin.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect cracks in the elites rather than the&nbsp;economy<\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How firmly is Putin in power after 14 months of war? What are his regime\u2019s \u201cbreaking points\u201d? This was the subject of panel&nbsp;2.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Econom\u00adi\u00adcally, Russia is in a&nbsp;better position than many predicted a&nbsp;year ago: The country lives not only from the sale of oil and gas, but also from a&nbsp;whole range of other raw materials such as palladium, nickel and potash (a vital ingre\u00addient for fertil\u00adizers). The Russian economy is also relatively immune to sanctions because it is primitive by inter\u00adna\u00adtional standards: apart from arms and nuclear technology, the country manufac\u00adtures few noteworthy export&nbsp;goods.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Never\u00adtheless, the sanctions are working, but slowly. Their effect was compared to an ageing car: Each year it performs&nbsp;worse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Partic\u00adi\u00adpants suggested looking for breaking points in the elites instead. Putin lost his aura of untouch\u00ada\u00adbility after the defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson, and If there is another signif\u00adicant military loss, the situation could turn: \u201cMany in the Russian elite believe that the war is a&nbsp;burden that the country cannot carry for long,\u201d said one expert who studied the topic in depth. With mobil\u00adi\u00adsation and the use of prisoners as \u201cWagner\u201d merce\u00adnaries, Putin has committed himself to a&nbsp;war of attrition and is betting that time is on Russia\u2019s side. But the mood among Russian elites outside the inner circle of power is gloomier than ever before, and there is concern that Putin is driving the country against the wall, said the expert, citing confi\u00addential conversations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If, when and how this will turn into opposition to the Kremlin\u2019s policies depends crucially on the outcome of the Ukraine adventure. So here, too, it is in the hands of the West and its willingness to support Ukraine&nbsp;enough.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Post-Putin scenarios range from thaw to civil&nbsp;war<\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What are the prospects for a&nbsp;post-Putin Russia? What can the West do at all to influence the situation? Scenarios of change range from cautiously optimistic (a new government makes conces\u00adsions towards pluralism and rapprochement with the West) to pessimistic, e.g. a&nbsp;country awash with weapons and trauma\u00adtised men while the crimi\u00adnalized state&nbsp;remains.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One scenario was that democ\u00adratic elections could take place no sooner than two years after the end of the regime. Until then, however, the new rulers would have to come to terms with hard-line nation\u00adalists, who are armed and against any peaceful solution in Ukraine. In the worst case, this could mean civil&nbsp;war.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The optimists, on the other hand, point to Siberia, where in 2020 people in the Khabarovsk region came out in mass protests against the Moscow-ordered removal of their governor. They claim that there are \u201cdozens of Khabarovsks\u201d out there and that the fixation on elites and a&nbsp;palace revolution is misleading. They favour scenarios, where change is not driven by liberal milieus in Moscow and St Petersburg, but by those striving for self-government in the Russian&nbsp;provinces.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, how exactly Putin will leave power remains unclear. A&nbsp;major risk is that the Russian state has become extremely person\u00adalized under Putin and has weak insti\u00adtu\u00adtions. There are no estab\u00adlished proce\u00addures for a&nbsp;power handover. \u201cHis person is the problem \u2014 if we take out this bolt, the whole country can go up in flames,\u201d one partic\u00adipant said. At the same time, the possi\u00adbility of Russia falling apart was seen as rather remote. The vast majority of Russian regions do not strive for secession or statehood, but for more autonomy vis-\u00e0-vis&nbsp;Moscow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So far, the state remains firmly in control thanks to propa\u00adganda, repression and financial incen\u00adtives. Economic discontent seems to pose no threat to the Kremlin in the medium term and the West could be dealing with Putin for the foreseeable future. This prospect fuelled calls for reforming the sanctions. The argument goes that their current design drives the elites to rally around Putin. Most recently, prominent friends of the president could snatch up Western companies cheaply, after their owners decided to leave the Russian market. The sanction reformers call for offering an exit option to those members of the elites willing to turn away from&nbsp;Putin.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Opinions also differ on the West\u2019s ability to influence Kremlin policy\u00admaking. While some argued that decades of failed democracy promotion in Russia showed that the West massively overes\u00adti\u00admated its potential, others say that the West under\u00ades\u00adti\u00admated its strength: They argue that the weak Western response to the invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, to the Syrian war and domestic repression signalled the Kremlin that it could largely act with&nbsp;impunity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But there was a&nbsp;strong consensus that the best Russia policy right now is to work towards a&nbsp;military victory of Ukraine, because Putin probably won\u2019t survive a&nbsp;crushing defeat for long. And only his departure from power opens the chance for positive change in the country and for sustainable peace in Europe: Russia must \u201clearn to lose in order to abandon its colonial ambitions and hegemonic thinking\u201d, several voices at the conference said. The West faces the task of supporting the Russian opposition and to promote democ\u00adratic change in the country as much as it&nbsp;can.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Conference impres\u00adsions<\/h3>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_gallery interval=\u201c3\u201d images=\u201c53741,53763,53739,53745,53747,53743,53753,53755,53759,53765,54282,53769,53771,53775,53777,53787,53789,53781,53783,53785,53757,53751,53761,53749,53791\u201d img_size=\u201cfull\u201d][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><i>&nbsp;<\/i><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-23921 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905145906\/textende.png\" alt=\"Textende\" width=\"40\" height=\"120\">[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][vc_column_text]Did you like thike this article? 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The partic\u00adi\u00adpants, including prominent Russian opposition figures in exile, discussed future policy towards Moscow and post-Putin&nbsp;scenarios.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":119,"featured_media":53785,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[14789],"tags":[15335,2987,11704,14967,2879,15116],"class_list":["post-53863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-event","tag-conference-russia-and-the-west","tag-current","tag-europes-east","tag-expert-network-russia","tag-russia","tag-russia-and-the-west"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.0 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u201cThe Best Russia Policy Is to Support a Ukrainian Victory\u201d - libmod.de - Zentrum Liberale Moderne<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"More than 100 experts from a dozen countries attended the fifth edition of our conference \u201cRussia and the West\u201d on 20 April in Berlin. 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