{"id":53969,"date":"2023-05-09T15:35:46","date_gmt":"2023-05-09T13:35:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=53969"},"modified":"2024-02-05T16:07:46","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T15:07:46","slug":"security-and-synergies-the-importance-of-the-black-sea-region-and-russias-war-on-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/security-and-synergies-the-importance-of-the-black-sea-region-and-russias-war-on-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Security and Synergies \u2014 The Impor\u00adtance of the Black Sea Region and Russia\u2019s War on Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: Shutter\u00adstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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The geostrategic potential of the Black Sea region has often been overlooked. Natalia Stercul analyses why this is changing in the face of the war, what economic perspec\u00adtives are open to the EU and what part the Republic of Moldova plays in this.<\/h2>\n

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The Black Sea region has seldom been seen as an area of strategic impor\u00adtance, and its potential for cooper\u00adation has often been overlooked. Yet this geostrategic region has long repre\u00adsented the transit zone between the East and the West and between the north and the south as well. The great powers failed to recognise the signif\u00adi\u00adcance that the Black Sea countries have for the emerging security archi\u00adtecture of the region, despite the recent history of the area around the Black Sea littoral, which has seen multiple wars and political turbu\u00adlence unmatched in any other maritime space in the world.<\/p>\n

The outbreak of the war in Ukraine revealed the economic potential of this area, however, especially in relation to its impor\u00adtance as an energy and trans\u00adportation route to Europe. The war also caused a shift in the perception of the geopo\u00adlitical impor\u00adtance, in the broadest sense, of the countries of the Black Sea basin, with regard to military challenges, secure trade and travel, and agricul\u00adtural exports to global market and other aspects.<\/p>\n

Although the EU and NATO enlarge\u00adments brought the Black Sea countries closer to the West and enabled their inclusion in Western mecha\u00adnisms, the inter\u00adna\u00adtional visibility of the region remained, until recently, practi\u00adcally nil. When bombing and the blockades imposed by the Russian Feder\u00adation on the Ukrainian territory disrupted supplies of energy and agricul\u00adtural products, however, the inter\u00adna\u00adtional public became acutely aware of the vital role played by the region, a reali\u00adsation that triggered shock waves through the global economy. Hence, the Black Sea region plays a pivotal role for the flow of trade between the East and the West, and the exchange of goods and resources through the trans\u00adportation routes and pipelines that transit through the Black Sea area is of growing impor\u00adtance given overall economic patterns and the emerging geopo\u00adlitical situation.<\/p>\n

Economic and energy signif\u00adi\u00adcance of the Black Sea region<\/h3>\n

The presence of large reserves of important natural resources under and around the Black Sea makes the region one of geostrategic and geoeco\u00adnomic signif\u00adi\u00adcance for the global energy players. The exact volumes of natural gas<\/a> are unknown, but rough estimates predict that the Ukrainian shelf may contain more than two trillion cubic meters of gas. A conser\u00adv\u00adative estimate of the reserves of Romania, one of the region\u2019s richest countries in terms of natural resources, put them at around 200 billion cubic meters. Georgia\u2019s gas resources are thought to be of a similar scale, while Bulgaria\u2019s reserves are believed to contain suffi\u00adcient gas to meet more than 30 years\u2019 worth of country\u2019s annual needs. Turkey, a regional player that is striving to become an energy hub to Europe, recently announced that the discovery of a new reserve<\/a> had brought the total volume of its Black Sea natural gas resources up to 710 billion cubic metres. This means that the area could make a vital contri\u00adbution to the energy security of Europe and could become a key factor for an integrated regional economy.<\/p>\n

That the region\u2019s agricul\u00adtural potential is also of impor\u00adtance for European economic security has also become evident. When the war began, the Russian Feder\u00adation imposed a blockade<\/a> on Ukrainian ports that disrupted grain supply chains, partic\u00adu\u00adlarly those supplying devel\u00adoping countries, and resulted in huge increases in global prices. In view of all of this, the EU should consider the security of the Black Sea region to be a key factor in the broader European and Euro-Atlantic security. As the war continues, success\u00adfully addressing the security issues of the Black Sea basin will be essential to maintaining the stability of economic and commercial relations between the East and West.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine succeeded in drawing attention to the strategic impor\u00adtance of the Black Sea region. In its attempts to free itself of its energy depen\u00addence on Russia and to develop alter\u00adnative sources, the EU focussed on possi\u00adbil\u00adities for cooper\u00adation in the field of oil and gas exports with Azerbaijan. Conse\u00adquently, the European Commission and the Government of Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of under\u00adstanding<\/a> concerning the intent to double the natural gas imports to the European bloc by 2027. This and other actions are the result of the initia\u00adtives to diversify the energy resources of the European countries and to make Europe less suscep\u00adtible to blackmail and pressure from the Russian Feder\u00adation via this sector.<\/p>\n

The place and role of the Republic of Moldova<\/h3>\n

Moldova can point to several achieve\u00adments resulting from  its engagement with the Black Sea region since the estab\u00adlishment of the BSEC, of which it is a founding member. One of the most important areas of cooper\u00adation is that encom\u00adpassing projects relating to the inter\u00adcon\u00adnection of the Moldovan and European energy and electricity sectors. The Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau pipeline, which became opera\u00adtional in 2020, was built to ensure that natural gas could be trans\u00adported to Moldova through Romania. Another project involves the construction of the high-voltage Isaccea-Vulcanesti-Chisinau power line. This project, launched in 2019 with the support of the EU, the European Bank for Recon\u00adstruction and Devel\u00adopment, the European Investment Bank and the World Bank, is expected to be  completed by the end of 2025. Once completed, it would enable Chisinau to free itself from its partial depen\u00addence on electricity from the Transnis\u00adtrian region and to connect to European energy distri\u00adb\u00adution networks.<\/p>\n

The prospect of broader involvement by Moldova in the activ\u00adities conducted by the countries of the Black Sea region was welcomed on the sidelines of the Atlantic Council event dedicated to the Three Seas Initiative held during the Munich Security Conference in February 2023. Bogdan Aurescu, the Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, reiterated the openness to the partic\u00adi\u00adpation of the Republic of Moldova in the activ\u00adities of the platform<\/a>, which will create oppor\u00adtu\u00adnities for the devel\u00adopment of infra\u00adstructure, energy sources and bridges over the Prut and will facil\u00aditate faster and simpler access to the European space. Moldova\u2019s partic\u00adi\u00adpation in the initia\u00adtives developed by the countries of the Black Sea region could be an additional element supporting the pro-European orien\u00adtation of the Republic of Moldova.<\/p>\n

Recon\u00adstructing the post-war Black Sea region: future prospects for the EU<\/h3>\n

Despite being  an important political partner of the Black Sea countries as well as a signif\u00adicant market for their energy resources, the EU has failed to become an important player in relation to security in the region. There have been some individual initia\u00adtives aimed at supporting the integration of the Black Sea region into the European project, such as the Eastern Partnership, but none of these involves an overall strategy for the entire region. Such a strategy would require the construction of proper infra\u00adstructure and transit capac\u00adities from the Black Sea to Europe, as well as the devel\u00adopment of infra\u00adstructure for a potential capital\u00adization of renewable energy resources.<\/p>\n

When rethinking the impor\u00adtance of Black Sea region, though, it would be unwise to forget that Moscow is inter\u00adested in keeping transit volumes and new projects in this area. Moreover, Russia\u2019s strong position in the Black Sea states enables the Kremlin to pursue political and economic expansion aims in the Balkans and the Middle East. The gist of the new Maritime Doctrine of the Russia Feder\u00adation, released in 2022, is clearly enunciated in its first strategic objective: \u201cDevel\u00adopment of the Russian Feder\u00adation as a great maritime power and the strength\u00adening of its position among the leading maritime powers of the world<\/a>\u201d. The doctrine clearly indicates that the United States and NATO are Russia\u2019s chief adversaries.<\/p>\n

A complex approach to the Black Sea region as a space with special potential for collab\u00ado\u00adration aimed at securing the energy needs of the European continent would enable a reduction of the energy depen\u00addence on Russia, while also ensuring the diver\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adcation of the economy of the Black Sea littoral states and their gradual integration into the common projects of the European Union. The war in Ukraine has consid\u00aderably weakened Russia\u2019s geopo\u00adlitical influence in the region and caused the states of the Black Sea basin to review those of their strategic partner\u00adships that are directly related to ensuring and maintaining security. Although China has not officially prior\u00adi\u00adtized the Black Sea region in its Belt and Road Initiative, its economic influence could become a challenge for the European Union in the medium term. For these reasons, the EU should use the current window of oppor\u00adtunity to establish lasting contacts through an integral and synergy-based approach to the post war Black Sea region.<\/p>\n

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