{"id":59862,"date":"2023-12-21T10:47:19","date_gmt":"2023-12-21T09:47:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=59862"},"modified":"2024-01-09T17:35:13","modified_gmt":"2024-01-09T16:35:13","slug":"cracks-under-the-surface-how-resiliet-is-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/cracks-under-the-surface-how-resiliet-is-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"Cracks under the surface: How resilient is Russia?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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LibMod\u2019s Maria Sannikova (left), OSW\u2019s Maria Domanska and sociol\u00adogist Alexandra Prokopenko.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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LibMod\u2019s Maria Sannikova (left), OSW\u2019s Maria Domanska and sociol\u00adogist Alexandra Prokopenko.
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With its overar\u00adching theme \u201cHow fragile is the Putin system?\u201d the recent meeting of LibMod\u2019s Expert Network Russia at the Eastern Studies Centre in Warsaw sent a clear message: A fragile Russia is a realistic scenario and Western policy\u00admakers need to prepare for this rather than fearing instability.<\/h2>\n

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To read more about our Inter\u00adna\u00adtional Expert Network Russia, click here<\/a>!<\/p>\n

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Editor\u2019s note: We do not attribute quotes because the meeting was held under Chatham House Rules.<\/em><\/p>\n

At first glance, the kickoff panel discussion \u201cCracks in the Ruling Elite: Oligarchs, Technocrats or the Siloviki?\u201d brought a lot of evidence to the contrary: The experts agreed that the regime has consol\u00adi\u00addated consid\u00aderably since last summer, when the revolt of the Wagner merce\u00adnaries failed and their ringleader Yevgeny Prigozhin was subse\u00adquently killed in a plane crash that bore hallmarks of a Kremlin-orches\u00adtrated assas\u00adsi\u00adnation. \u201cEven the Siloviki<\/em> (the military and all other armed security services) showed resilience \u2026 and the armed forces adapted to the Ukrainian counterof\u00adfensive\u201d one panelist said.<\/p>

\"Portrait<\/p>\n

Nikolaus von Twickel<\/a> is a member of the Center for Liberal Moder\u00adnity\u2019s Russia Team and editor of the web\u00adsite \u201eRuss\u00adland verstehen\u201c.<\/p><\/div>\n

Since then, domestic repression in Russia has increased even more, especially against LGBT commu\u00adnities and the few remaining dissenters. There are growing fears that Vladimir Putin will use the presi\u00addential \u201celection\u201d in March not just to secure himself another six years in office but to further weaken any internal opponents.<\/p>\n

Also, the personal sanctions against Russian business\u00adpeople are not working as intended: While those targeted may be unhappy about the sanctions, they are o.k. with Putin. And a seemingly strong Putin makes splits less likely: \u201cThe elites only confront the President with uncom\u00adfortable truths when they feel he is losing. When they feel he is winning, nobody dares\u201d, one panelist argued.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Nevertheless, there clearly is fragility below the surface. Russian business is unhappy with the Kremlin\u2019s imposition of capital controls and the growing number of asset redis\u00adtri\u00adb\u00adu\u00adtions. Panelists also noted that the Kremlin fears a radical\u00adization of mass sentiment for social reasons as well as dissat\u00adis\u00adfaction with the lack of resources and decision-making compe\u00adtencies in the regions.<\/p>\n

The Prigozhin revolt caught the regime off guard to some extent, because it was carried out by nation\u00adalist hardliners. However, Russia\u2019s nation\u00adalist opposition was soon exposed as being overrated. When Igor Girkin, their most outspoken figure, was arrested on 21 July, protests were at best muted.<\/p>\n

Many panelists identified the so-called technocrats as the strongest elite group to emerge from the war. Unassuming but effective bureau\u00adcrats like Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina are credited with keeping Russia functioning despite sanctions. Mishustin is emerging as a potential successor to Putin: \u201cThe technocrats\u2019 adaption is so strong that they can remain in place even without Putin\u201d, one partic\u00adipant said.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s economic resilience \u2013 an illusion?<\/h3>\n

The Russian economy presents a similar picture. While on the surface, GDP has been growing since the sanctions regime\u2019s imposition, a closer look tells another story: The \u201cnew Russian economy\u201d that emerged this year, actually is less resilient than the previous one: There is a massive labour shortage and the arms sector could expand only at the expense of civilian indus\u00adtrial production, which has stagnated since May 2023.<\/p>\n

Also, labour produc\u00adtivity is 6 to 11 times lower than in Western Europe. Exports are less diver\u00adsified (non-energy exports are down by 50 per cent) and the country is more dependent on imports while at the same time diver\u00adsi\u00adfying its import sources. The transition towards a war economy means that GDP growth no longer reflects increases in the quality of life. Any further brain drain, like the 2022 exodus that followed the Kremlin\u2019s mobilization, will directly affect Moscow\u2019s arms production. Russia will emerge from the war as a poorer country with a more backward economy (at least outside the arms sector).[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

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Takeaways from Ralf @fuecks<\/a> on what the W should do
\n1 Discourage Russian elites to expect that they can win the war
\n2 Delegit\u00adimate Putin\u2019s power
\n3 Hold Russia legally accountable
\n4 Strengthen\/\u200brecalibrate sanctions
\n5 Support Russian civil society\/\u200bopposition as much as we can pic.twitter.com\/GBJZbrcE2M<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Russland verstehen (@RusVerstehen) November 20, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n