{"id":62720,"date":"2024-06-19T13:51:17","date_gmt":"2024-06-19T11:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=62720"},"modified":"2024-07-09T18:24:24","modified_gmt":"2024-07-09T16:24:24","slug":"conference-russia-and-the-west-2024-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/conference-russia-and-the-west-2024-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Conference Report: Russia is Gearing up for a&nbsp;Long War. Are we&nbsp;Ready?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=\u201c63847\u201d img_size=\u201cfull\u201d add_caption=\u201cyes\u201d css=\u201c\u201d][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<h3>While Russia is preparing for a&nbsp;long war, the West remains hesitant and divided. At this year\u2019s conference <em>Russia and the West<\/em>, partic\u00adi\u00adpants urgently called for a&nbsp;new European policy versus Moscow. They pleaded for a&nbsp;double strategy to enable Ukraine to win the war and to support democ\u00adratic change in&nbsp;Russia.<\/h3>\n<div class=\"title-h4\"><!--more--><\/div>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_message css=\u201c\u201d]LibMod\u2019s annual conference <a href=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/tag\/conference-russia-and-the-west\/\">Russia and the West<\/a> is the flagship event of our Expert Network Russia. <a href=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/network-russia\/\">Find out more about the network here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Read this text&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/russlandverstehen.eu\/de\/russland-und-der-westen-konferenz-2024-bericht\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in German<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_message][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]As Russia\u2019s all-out war against Ukraine is in its third year, the results of Germany\u2019s \u201cZeiten\u00adwende\u201d are mixed: Vladimir Putin\u2019s military successes have been limited, while Ukraine \u2013 surpris\u00adingly for many \u2013 has asserted itself militarily with Western help. However, the country is paying a&nbsp;high price for this. Given the brutality of the war and the conse\u00adquences of a&nbsp;Ukrainian defeat for the European order, support from the West remains too little too late. Western govern\u00adments disagree about how far their support for Ukraine should go and there is a&nbsp;lack of clarity about how to deal strate\u00adgi\u00adcally with Russia and the shape of a&nbsp;post-war European&nbsp;order.<\/p>\n<p>Against this dramatic backdrop, almost 100 experts discussed about future Western Russia policies at the Center of Liberal Modernity\u2019s \u201cRussia and the West\u201d conference, this year under the headline \u201cWhat is at Stake\u201d.[\/vc_column_text]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LbkGOaw69ls?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]<em>We inter\u00adviewed conference partic\u00adipant and former deputy US ambas\u00adsador to Germany Robin Quinville on the sidelines of the conference.<\/em>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]\n<h2>The Kremlin is creating condi\u00adtions for a&nbsp;long war<\/h2>\n<p>The panel on Russia\u2019s domestic situation agreed that Putin is both preparing for a&nbsp;long war and is using the war to consol\u00adidate his regime. The compo\u00adsition of the newly-formed government after Putin\u2019s \u201cre-election\u201d for another six-year-term in March 2024 shows that the regime is mobil\u00adising economic resources in order to fight a&nbsp;long war.<\/p>\n<p>For this, the Kremlin can rely on suffi\u00adcient popular support. Only a&nbsp;minority of Russians dissent and occasionally openly show this under great risk \u2013 for example by gathering to mourn Alexei Navalny or by public support for presi\u00addential candi\u00addates Boris Nadezhdin and Ekaterina Duntsova, who advocated a&nbsp;limited anti-war agenda before being barred from standing in the&nbsp;election.<\/p>\n<p>A majority continues to support the regime and its war against Ukraine. However, this majority is highly atomized and intim\u00adi\u00addated, prompting doubts about how active its support is. There certainly is no big enthu\u00adsiasm for joining the military: The defence ministry had to raise soldiers\u2019 pay levels five times in the last two&nbsp;years.<\/p>\n<p>And because the recruitment drive targets low-income and socially disad\u00advan\u00adtaged groups in order to avoid general mobil\u00adi\u00adsation, the war causes a&nbsp;redis\u00adtri\u00adb\u00adution of wealth towards these groups: And as more people benefit from it econom\u00adi\u00adcally, the proportion of those who feel that the distri\u00adb\u00adution of wealth in Russia is fair is rising for the first time since the 1990s, according to&nbsp;surveys.<\/p>\n<p>The regime can also rely on widespread anti-Western sentiment. After the large-scale invasion of Ukraine was initially presented as a \u201cspecial military operation\u201d on the periphery, it is increas\u00adingly being portrayed as a&nbsp;new edition of the Great Patriotic War, in which Russia must assert itself against the&nbsp;West.<\/p>\n<p>Such messages resound also with Russians otherwise critical of the government, because they offer simple expla\u00adna\u00adtions and moral relief even for those who feel that their country is waging an unjust war. In addition, many who princi\u00adpally disap\u00adprove of the war believe that once it has started, Russia must avoid&nbsp;defeat.<\/p>\n<h2>Is Putin overcon\u00adfident or&nbsp;desperate?<\/h2>\n<p>However, partic\u00adi\u00adpants disagreed whether the replacement of Putin\u2019s long-time confi\u00addante Sergei Shoigu by the economist Andrei Belousov as defence minister in the middle of the war was a&nbsp;sign of strength or desperation.<\/p>\n<p>Some argued that by installing a&nbsp;defence minister without military experience, Putin demon\u00adstrated that he is confident to take important military decisions alone, while Belousov is expected to improve the efficiency of defence spending. \u201cPutin thinks that he is winning. A&nbsp;war of attrition is won by economics,\u201d one panelist&nbsp;said.<\/p>\n<p>But others argued that Belousov\u2019s appointment and the simul\u00adta\u00adneous arrests of high-ranking Defence Ministry officials on corruption charges signals desper\u00adation. \u201cThese arrests and Shoigu\u2019s removal are clear signs that Putin believes that things are very bad and that he is resorting to desperate counter\u00admea\u00adsures,\u201d another panelist&nbsp;said.<\/p>\n<p>However, everyone agreed that Russia, which already spends more than eight per cent of its GDP on defence and national security, has suffi\u00adcient resources to continue the war in the short term. The Russian economy, boosted by increased military production, could also cope with the conse\u00adquences of the sanctions in the short term thanks to high revenues from oil&nbsp;sales.<\/p>\n<p>In the medium and long term, however, the problems will worsen. Glaring labour shortages and a&nbsp;lack of Western technologies are already making themselves felt. The pivot towards China, intended i.a. to replace important gas revenues like from Germany and the EU, is not working as planned. Beijing is exploiting Moscow\u2019s depen\u00addence on natural resource exports to force lower&nbsp;prices.<\/p>\n<p>Rising military spending is also expected to force cuts in social spending. This in turn could exacerbate social tensions due to ethnic, regional, social or ecological injus\u00adtices. And the elites themselves could also be&nbsp;affected.<\/p>\n<p>The sum of these internal factors, exacer\u00adbated by the sanctions, will increase tensions in the system in the long term. In the foreseeable future, however, only a&nbsp;Russian defeat in Ukraine could pave the way for&nbsp;change.<\/p>\n<h2>Sanctions need&nbsp;resolve<\/h2>\n<p>The discussion about the West\u2019s sanctions policy was markedly less contro\u00adversial. Practi\u00adcally everybody agreed that all measures against Russia\u2019s war economy must be tightened or improved. The West can and must act here because it is signif\u00adi\u00adcantly stronger: the EU member states are forecast to have a&nbsp;joint GDP of 19 trillion US dollars in 2024, almost ten times as much as Russia\u2019s two&nbsp;trillion.<\/p>\n<p>But while the balance of resources favors the West, the balance of resolve favors Moscow. Thus, panelists urged to close loopholes for goods like machine tools and semicon\u00adductors going to Russia via third countries and for profitable exports from Russia, first and foremost oil. While the discussion about the former led to calls for a&nbsp;blanket trade ban that would end the current exemp\u00adtions for medical goods and food, hopes for the latter focus on an embargo for Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) and on bans for Russian oil tankers in EU&nbsp;ports.<\/p>\n<p>Most speakers also urged to give the 200 billion dollars of Russian Central Bank assets frozen in Europe to Ukraine \u2013 and not just the interest income. Because, once the money is frozen, it may legally be taken, as the lawyer Patrick Heinemann <a href=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/russia-sanctions-dossier-central-bank-asset-seizure-heinemann\/\">explained in an article<\/a> for our <a href=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/tag\/russia-sanctions\/\">dossier on sanctions<\/a>. Turning to those in the German government and the European Central Bank who reject this as \u201ctoo risky\u201d, one panelist asked why the delivery of weapons to Ukraine was less risky.[\/vc_column_text]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/my1CjL1xUCA?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]<em>Our panelist, former Ukrainian government official Olena Tregub offered a&nbsp;short summary of the debate on sanctions.<\/em>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]\n<h2>Elements of a&nbsp;new European Russia&nbsp;policy<\/h2>\n<p>However, the West is currently finding it difficult to mobilize the necessary resources for a&nbsp;Ukrainian victory. Several partic\u00adi\u00adpants saw one reason for this in the fact that the West lacks a&nbsp;strategy for dealing with Russia. During the discussion, they warned that any arrangement with the current regime neces\u00adsarily means giving conces\u00adsions to the Kremlin at the expense of&nbsp;Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, the West should be working towards victory for Ukraine and provide the country with every\u00adthing it needs to achieve this. At the same time, we should perma\u00adnently minimise the Kremlin\u2019s capacity for aggression through a&nbsp;combi\u00adnation of military deter\u00adrence and containment. The conference agreed that the Putin regime is the main obstacle to sustainable peace in Europe and for democ\u00adratic reforms in&nbsp;Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Panelists pointed out that Putin openly sees the war against Ukraine as part of a&nbsp;long conflict to weaken the West and undermine the rules-based liberal order, which in his eyes is Western supremacy. And Russia is not acting alone, but in an alliance with Iran and China. For this reason, a&nbsp;Kremlin victory would have catastrophic conse\u00adquences for the future inter\u00adna\u00adtional order. That is why the West, if it wants to succeed, needs both a&nbsp;strategy for victory and recon\u00adstruction in Ukraine and a&nbsp;long-term strategy to transform Russia and not just to weaken the Kremlin. Even if it does not seem likely at present, every oppor\u00adtunity should be used to achieve changes in&nbsp;Russia.<\/p>\n<h2>Possible elements of such a&nbsp;strategy:<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Force the Kremlin into inter\u00adna\u00adtional&nbsp;isolation.<\/li>\n<li>Signif\u00adi\u00adcantly increase the sanctions\u2019 economic&nbsp;pressure.<\/li>\n<li>Hold Moscow accountable for its war crimes in Ukraine \u2013 inter alia by resuming the initiative for a&nbsp;special tribunal on the crime of&nbsp;aggression.<\/li>\n<li>Work on stabi\u00adlizing the countries in the EU\u2019s eastern neighbourhood.<\/li>\n<li>Promote the prospects for a&nbsp;post-imperial Russia. Cooper\u00adation is possible only if Russia ceases to pose a&nbsp;threat to its neigh\u00adbours and if it respects inter\u00adna\u00adtional law. Today, this means above all supporting the democ\u00adratic opposition, civil society and the free media, which embody the hope for a&nbsp;different Russia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Foremost, however, the West needs to support Ukraine with every\u00adthing it needs for a&nbsp;victory. And regardless of the outcome of the US election, there needs to be a&nbsp;fairer burden sharing between Europe and the US.[\/vc_column_text][vc_gallery interval=\u201c3\u201d images=\u201c63167,63165,63161,63159,63169,63173,63175,63177,63179,63181,63183,63195,63205,63193,63185,63171,63191,63197,63199,63209\u201d img_size=\u201cfull\u201d css=\u201c\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Editing by Nikolaus von&nbsp;Twickel<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-23921 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905145906\/textende.png\" alt=\"Textende\" width=\"40\" height=\"120\">[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][vc_column_text]Did you like this article? If yes, you can support the independent editorial work and journalism of LibMod via a&nbsp;simple donation tool.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n\t(function() {\n\t\tvar u=\"https:\/\/spenden.twingle.de\/embed\/genericorganisation\/genericproject\/tw5aeafe12eb6cb\/widget\";\n\t\tvar id = '_' + Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9);\n\t\tvar d=document, g=d.createElement('script'), s=d.getElementsByTagName('script')[0];\n\t\tdocument.write('<div id=\"twingle-public-embed-' + id + '\"><\/div>');\n\t\tg.type='text\/javascript'; g.async=true; g.defer=true; g.src=u+'\/'+id; s.parentNode.insertBefore(g,s);\n\t})();\n<\/script>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h2>Donate via&nbsp;PayPal<\/h2>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/en_DE\/i\/scr\/pixel.gif\" alt width=\"1\" height=\"1\" border=\"0\"><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>We are recog\u00adnized as a&nbsp;non-profit organi\u00adzation, accord\u00adingly donations are tax deductible. For a&nbsp;donation receipt (necessary for an amount over 200 EUR), please send your address data to <a href=\"mailto:finanzen@libmod.de\">finanzen@libmod.de<\/a>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=\u201c1\/3\u201d el_class=\u201cdimmer\u201d][vc_empty_space height=\u201c130px\u201d][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h2>Related topics<\/h2>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_basic_grid post_type=\u201cpost\u201d max_items=\u201c3\u201d element_width=\u201c12\u201d item=\u201c24066\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1718723836518{background-color: #ffffff !important;}\u201d grid_id=\u201cvc_gid:1720542117172\u201355386941-7096\u20132\u201d taxonomies=\u201c15335\u201d][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=\u201c63847\u201d img_size=\u201cfull\u201d add_caption=\u201cyes\u201d css=\u201c\u201d][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d] While Russia is preparing for a&nbsp;long war, the West remains hesitant and divided. At this year\u2019s&nbsp;conference...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":63845,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[14789],"tags":[15335,2987,14967,2879,15048],"class_list":["post-62720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-event","tag-conference-russia-and-the-west","tag-current","tag-expert-network-russia","tag-russia","tag-war-against-ukraine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.0 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Conference Report: Russia is Gearing up for a Long War. 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