{"id":63223,"date":"2024-05-22T19:14:16","date_gmt":"2024-05-22T17:14:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=63223"},"modified":"2024-05-30T15:43:17","modified_gmt":"2024-05-30T13:43:17","slug":"public-discussion-russia-and-the-west-2024-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/public-discussion-russia-and-the-west-2024-report\/","title":{"rendered":"A German Churchill or a&nbsp;Coalition of the&nbsp;Willing?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_63226\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-63226\" style=\"width: 1200px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img class=\"wp-image-63226 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905111044\/AV-Runde_1200x500.jpeg\" alt width=\"1200\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905111044\/AV-Runde_1200x500.jpeg 1200w, https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905111044\/AV-Runde_1200x500-770x321.jpeg 770w, https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905111044\/AV-Runde_1200x500-768x320.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-63226\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photos: Tobias Kunz \/\u200b LibMod<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<h3>Germany\u2019s foot-dragging over military aid to Ukraine and the half-hearted imple\u00admen\u00adtation of Chancellor Scholz\u2019 <em>Zeiten\u00adwende<\/em> were subjected to sharp criticism at the Center for Liberal Moder\u00adnity\u2019s recent public discussion \u201cRussia and the West \u2013 What is at Stake\u201d. Partic\u00adi\u00adpants disagreed over if and how policy\u00admakers in Berlin can turn the tide and make a&nbsp;Ukrainian victory possible. Some put their hopes in a&nbsp;Coalition of the Willing that would prompt Germany to follow&nbsp;suit.<!--more--><\/h3>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_gallery interval=\u201c3\u201d images=\u201c63228,63446,63482,63448,63488,63450,63452,63454,63490,63476,63456,63458,63460,63462,63464,63466,63468,63470,63472,63474,63478,63480,63484,63486\u201d img_size=\u201cfull\u201d css=\u201c\u201d][vc_message css=\u201c\u201d]This discussion took place after the annual LibMod-conference <a href=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/tag\/conference-russia-and-the-west\/\">Russia and the West<\/a>, the flagship event of our Expert Network Russia. <a href=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/network-russia\/\">Find out more about the network here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Read this text&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/russlandverstehen.eu\/de\/russland-und-der-westen-diskussion-2024-bericht\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in German<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_message][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]The German government\u2019s now long-running hesitation to provide adequate military support to Ukraine is cause for consid\u00aderable frustration among some of its allies. The fact that this is caused by fears of an escalation of the war and a&nbsp;possible decom\u00adpo\u00adsition of the Russian leadership does not make this any better, according to Swedish expert Charlotta Rodhe and Lithuanian MEP Andrius Kubilius. \u201cThese are the wrong fears\u201d, Rodhe said, adding that everybody should really fear a&nbsp;defeat of Ukraine. This would trigger massive refugee flows and force NATO to increase military spending manyfold in the face of an emboldened and aggressive Russia \u2013 to perhaps 2&nbsp;trillion euros (in 2023 it was around 1.2 trillion).[\/vc_column_text][vc_message css=\u201c\u201d]At the opening we showed the video interview with opposition politician and political prisoner Vladimir Kara-Murza, recorded at the 2022 conference, one month before he was detained in Moscow.[\/vc_message]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/sBgcCtem_mc?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]Kubilius called for a \u2018bold dual strategy\u2019: A&nbsp;military one to help Ukraine achieve victory, and a&nbsp;political one to create clearer prospects for regime change in Russia. He argued that it is in everybody\u2019s interest that Russia becomes a \u201cnormal country\u201d that poses no threat to its neigh\u00adbours: \u201cWe have an oblig\u00adation to support Russia in becoming different,\u201d he said. Kubilius, who was Lithuanian Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012, expressed hope that Berlin would take on more leadership, even saying that he would be \u201chappy if Germany produced a&nbsp;second Churchill\u201d.\n<blockquote><p>Russia has crossed all red&nbsp;lines<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Malgo\u00adrzata Kosiura-Kazmierska, who heads the eastern department in the Polish Foreign Ministry, refrained from addressing Germany directly, but argued that Western policy\u00admakers need to generally change their mindset, given that Russia sees itself at war with the West: \u201cRussia has crossed all red lines, so we should also overcome the red lines in our thinking,\u201d she&nbsp;said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/nLSttuGWFfs?si=5K89bypY5DZGRnWp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mikhail Khodor\u00adkovsky<\/a> also did not address Germany directly, but put forward a&nbsp;drasti\u00adcally bleak scenario for Ukraine. The Russian businessman turned Putin critic argued that without a&nbsp;massive increase in foreign aid Ukraine\u2019s military expen\u00additure was simply too small: While Russia had spent 120 billion US dollars or 5.4 per cent of its GDP on the war in 2023, the EU was spending just 0.25 per cent of GDP on supporting&nbsp;Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Khodor\u00adkovsky warned that under these circum\u00adstances Kyiv would lose the city of Kharkiv this year and Odesa next year. By 2026, Ukraine may just be able to wage a&nbsp;guerrilla war. He then sarcas\u00adti\u00adcally lambasted the idea of negoti\u00adating with Putin. \u201cThen we must honestly say to the Ukrainians: We have betrayed you, stop the pointless resis\u00adtance,\u201d he said.[\/vc_column_text]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/zqpdf-SnZnI?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]The three Bundestag MPs, who spoke during the debate\u2019s second half, agreed on the urgency but differed on how to implement&nbsp;it.\n<blockquote><p>Germany\u2019s political elites are wasting the oppor\u00adtunity to rally everyone behind&nbsp;freedom<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Diemtar Nietan of the Social Democrats made a&nbsp;very emotional call for a&nbsp;cross-party effort to unite a&nbsp;majority of the population behind more support for Ukraine. \u201cWe cannot impose this, we must win over the people,\u201d he said. Nietan, who is not standing for re-election in 2025, added that this was only possible if the democ\u00adratic camps showed more unity. He lamented that ingrained ritual\u00adistic party politics prevents this and warned that Germany\u2019s political elites \u201care wasting the oppor\u00adtunity to rally everyone behind freedom\u201d.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]However, Nietan\u2019s colleague J\u00fcrgen Hardt from the opposi\u00adtional Christian Democrats immedi\u00adately reverted to party politics by blaming parts of the SPD and Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the fact that the <em>Zeiten\u00adwende<\/em> was not being imple\u00admented. Hardt, who is foreign policy spokesman for the CDU\/\u200bCSU parlia\u00admentary group, argued that the FDP, Greens and CDU\/\u200bCSU were behind Kyiv: \u201cWe have a&nbsp;clear democ\u00adratic majority in favour of more aid for Ukraine, but .. a&nbsp;group in the coalition, led by the Chancellor, is preventing this,\u201d, he&nbsp;said.<\/p>\n<p>Robin Wagener from the Greens agreed with Nietan that foreign policy too often falls back to domestic political debates and that a&nbsp;strong democ\u00adratic alliance was badly needed. Wagener also called for lifting the austerity \u201cdebt brake\u201d and pleaded for the use of Russia\u2019s frozen Central Bank assets to support&nbsp;Ukraine.<\/p>\n<h2>Can a&nbsp;Coalition of the Willing entice&nbsp;Germany?<\/h2>\n<p>At the end of the evening, LibMod-cofounder Marieluise Beck expressed hope that a \u2018Coalition of the Willing\u2019 formed from countries like Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic could drive Germany to change its policy. \u201cGiven the urgency for Ukraine, I&nbsp;think this is a&nbsp;strategic possi\u00adbility,\u201d she said.[\/vc_column_text]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/VQ-i6NCkL9E?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext&nbsp;css=\u201c\u201d]\n<hr>\n<p><i>&nbsp;<\/i><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-23921 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905145906\/textende.png\" alt=\"Textende\" width=\"40\" height=\"120\">[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][vc_column_text]Did you like this article? If yes, you can support the independent editorial work and journalism of LibMod via a&nbsp;simple donation tool.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n\t(function() {\n\t\tvar u=\"https:\/\/spenden.twingle.de\/embed\/genericorganisation\/genericproject\/tw5aeafe12eb6cb\/widget\";\n\t\tvar id = '_' + Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9);\n\t\tvar d=document, g=d.createElement('script'), s=d.getElementsByTagName('script')[0];\n\t\tdocument.write('<div id=\"twingle-public-embed-' + id + '\"><\/div>');\n\t\tg.type='text\/javascript'; g.async=true; g.defer=true; g.src=u+'\/'+id; s.parentNode.insertBefore(g,s);\n\t})();\n<\/script>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h2>Donate via&nbsp;PayPal<\/h2>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/en_DE\/i\/scr\/pixel.gif\" alt width=\"1\" height=\"1\" border=\"0\"><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>We are recog\u00adnized as a&nbsp;non-profit organi\u00adzation, accord\u00adingly donations are tax deductible. 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Zentrum Liberale Moderne\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LiberaleModerne\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-05-22T17:14:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-30T13:43:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/AV-Runde_1200x800.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nikolaus von Twickel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@liberalemoderne\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@liberalemoderne\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Nikolaus von Twickel\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmod.de\\\/en\\\/public-discussion-russia-and-the-west-2024-report\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmod.de\\\/en\\\/public-discussion-russia-and-the-west-2024-report\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Nikolaus von Twickel\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmod.de\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e811e1e3a88f0835855a24d51198af44\"},\"headline\":\"A German Churchill or a&nbsp;Coalition of the&nbsp;Willing?\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-05-22T17:14:16+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-30T13:43:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmod.de\\\/en\\\/public-discussion-russia-and-the-west-2024-report\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1189,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmod.de\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmod.de\\\/en\\\/public-discussion-russia-and-the-west-2024-report\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/20240905111044\\\/AV-Runde_1200x800.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Conference Russia and the West\",\"current\",\"Europe\u2019s East\",\"Expert Network Russia\",\"Russia and the West\",\"russsia\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Event\u2003\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmod.de\\\/en\\\/public-discussion-russia-and-the-west-2024-report\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/libmod.de\\\/en\\\/public-discussion-russia-and-the-west-2024-report\\\/\",\"name\":\"A German Churchill or a Coalition of the Willing? - 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