{"id":64015,"date":"2024-06-26T09:32:38","date_gmt":"2024-06-26T07:32:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/israel-wie-fest-sitzt-netanyahu-im-sattel\/"},"modified":"2024-07-18T11:57:01","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T09:57:01","slug":"israel-wie-fest-sitzt-netanyahu-im-sattel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/israel-wie-fest-sitzt-netanyahu-im-sattel\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel: How much is Netanyahu in control?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Despite indis\u00adputable opinion polls and massive protests, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in office. Richard C. Schneider discusses the exhaustion of the Israeli people, possible scenarios for the end of the governing coalition \u2014 and why Netanyahu is playing for time.<\/span><\/h2>\n

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What is going on in Israel? For months, opinion polls have been saying the same thing: more than 70% of Israelis want to get rid of their prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. For months, the inter\u00adna\u00adtional media have been writing about the end of \u201cBibi,\u201d as Netanyahu is known. And for months, Israelis have been demon\u00adstrating against Netanyahu. What has happened so far: Nothing.<\/p>\n

Why can\u2019t the Israelis Society get rid of their hated Prime Minister?<\/h3>\n

Currently, observers \u2014 at least those who have no real knowledge of Israel \u2014 are pinning their hopes on Netanyahu\u2019s imminent downfall, not least because Benny Gantz, together with his party colleagues and ex-Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, has already left. Yet Netanyahu remains in the prime minis\u00adter\u2019s office, just as before, and plans an \u201call-out war\u201d against Hezbollah in the north. Why can\u2019t Israeli society get rid of its hated prime minister?<\/p>\n

The answer is multi\u00adfaceted \u2014 but it\u2019s not that compli\u00adcated. Several factors have led to the paralysis of the population in the face of Netanyahu\u2019s claims to power.<\/p>\n

On the one hand, there is the total exhaustion of the Israeli people. Their struggle did not just begin with the Hamas massacre on October 7. It began on January 4, 2023, when Justice Minister Yariv Levin revealed his plans for an illiberal justice reform, which would abolish the division of powers in democ\u00adratic Israel. Since then, the Israeli population has been in a permanent state of emergency, alongside the followers of Netanyahu as well as his opponents.<\/p>\n

Greatest Domestic Political Crisis in Israel\u2019s History<\/h3>\n

The demon\u00adstra\u00adtions \u2014 but more so the division of society that has played havoc with the Zionist consensus \u2014 have cost the people \u201cblood, sweat and tears,\u201d to paraphrase Churchill. Week after week, Israelis took to the streets to protest against the judicial reform. Advocates of the reform have also been stirred into action and are fighting for their vision of a new Israel. The hatred for each other grew, the economy began to weaken, volunteer reservists were unwilling to report for duty \u2014 and Israel found itself in the greatest domestic political crisis in its history.<\/p>\n

The People of Israel are Exhausted<\/h3>\n

Then came the massacre, which reacti\u00advated the trauma of the pogroms and the Holocaust. And then the war, which has now been going on for eight and a half months and seems to have no end in sight. To put it neutrally, the Israelis have hardly any \u201ccapacity\u201d left for an effective uprising against their prime minister.<\/p>\n

Consensus among the Ruling Coalition<\/h3>\n

Without question, Bibi\u2019s Likud, the far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and the ultra-Orthodox parties, are all basically enemies. They don\u2019t like each other, and they don\u2019t trust each other. But they need each other. They all realise that as long as they are in power, even with their detested partners, they are sitting at the flesh-pots of the state. Not only can they elicit the financial resources they need to achieve their purposes and goals, but they can also gradually reshape the state according to their vision.<\/p>\n

The repeated threats by the Minister for National Security Ben Gvir to destroy the coalition if Netanyahu doesn\u2019t do what he wants should not be taken too seriously. These strategies are more akin to psycho\u00adlogical warfare since even Ben Gvir knows that if he pulled out of the coalition, he would no doubt be sitting on the opposition bench for a long time. And those benches are known to be hard and uncomfortable.<\/p>\n

Threat as the Great Common Denominator<\/h3>\n

Even though this government is detested, the war continues to rage. Ultimately, there is a majority that is not only convinced that the Islamist Hamas must be destroyed, but also believes that this is possible. What\u2019s more, the consensus that the situation in the north must be funda\u00admen\u00adtally changed is rock solid. Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Israeli army have been fighting each other since the outbreak of the Gaza war. Since the beginning of this war, around 80,000 people in northern Israel have been evacuated from their towns and villages and are still unable to return because Hezbol\u00adlah\u2019s drones, rockets, shells, and rocket-propelled grenades are gradually destroying their homes.<\/p>\n

They want to go back, but to secure homes. And they know there are scarcely any viable options other than an escalation of the war with Hezbollah \u2014 even at the risk of destroying a signif\u00adicant portion of Israeli infra\u00adstructure and killing many Israeli civilians. The population knows this price must be paid sooner or later, so why not now?<\/p>\n

At what Point would Netanyahu have to Resign?<\/h3>\n

In light of all of the above, it is unlikely that Netanyahu will be forced to resign from office. Currently, there are only two conceivable sequences of events that could bring this about.<\/p>\n

One possi\u00adbility is through the efforts of the Israeli people. Not ten thousand of them, as has been the case until now, and not one hundred thousand as was the case before October 7. One or two million Israelis would have to take to the streets to demand the end of Netanyahu\u2019s premiership. They must bring the country to its knees, ideally with a trade union-backed general strike. This effort should not be limited to one day but should continue day after day until Netanyahu is forced to resign because the country has become ungovernable. The Israelis are too worn out; they have their sons, brothers, and fathers in the army and worry about them more than about the government.<\/p>\n

Contro\u00adversial Law exempting the Ultra-Orthodox Men from Military Service<\/h3>\n

The second possi\u00adbility is a failure of the new law regarding the exemption of the ultra-Orthodox from military service<\/a>. This law should soon be passed despite signs that not everyone in the government is willing to support it. In the first ballot, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant voted against it, and there are now other politi\u00adcians in Likud who do not support the law. In these times, making conces\u00adsions to the ultra-Orthodox once again is hard for Israeli society to accept, given the sacri\u00adfices that every Israeli family currently has to make. Furthermore, a new regulation provides for the extension of military service in all areas.<\/p>\n

So while the prospect of an ever-increasing burden weighs heavily on the bulk of Israelis, the ultra-Orthodox, the Haredim, are once more to be spared? That would be hard to swallow. It is quite conceivable that the coalition could be shattered by this law, even though Netanyahu will try every\u00adthing to reach some kind of lazy, last-minute compromise in order to keep his government together. At present, however, it looks as if the coalition is actually facing a crucial test. On June 25, the Supreme Court ruled that, on the grounds of equality, the government must call up young ultra-Orthodox men for military service, effective immedi\u00adately. Additionally, the yeshivas, the religious educa\u00adtional insti\u00adtu\u00adtions, should no longer receive govern\u00admental financial support as their students \u201cplay truant\u201d from military service.<\/p>\n

Netanyahu is playing for time<\/h3>\n

In any case, Netanyahu will attempt to salvage himself during the summer holiday, which begins at the end of July. The Knesset will not meet again for another three months. What will transpire until then, only the gods know. It\u2019s possible that Israel could already be caught up in an all-out war with Hezbollah. The Israelis would then have completely different problems. Such a war, which appears to be gradually becoming inevitable, would mean a level of destruction that even war-hardened Israelis could not imagine. And Netanyahu, if he were to win the war, would have a chance to be re-elected as a war hero. Israeli politics really can be that crazy. So it should come as no surprise if Bibi does indeed rely on this option to consol\u00adidate his power once again. But the price \u2014 for the Israeli population \u2014 would be extremely high.<\/p>\n

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