{"id":68885,"date":"2025-01-10T14:48:51","date_gmt":"2025-01-10T13:48:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/offener-brief-an-die-bundesregierung-georgien-braucht-jetzt-unsere-unterstuetzung-copy\/"},"modified":"2025-01-10T15:42:11","modified_gmt":"2025-01-10T14:42:11","slug":"moldovas-path-to-the-eu-afte-the-referendum-and-the-presidential-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/moldovas-path-to-the-eu-afte-the-referendum-and-the-presidential-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Moldova\u2019s Path to the EU after the Refer\u00adendum and the Presi\u00addential Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The EU accession country Moldova continues to face major security and economic challenges. Our expert, Natalia Stercul, APE, analyses the obstacles on Moldova\u2019s path to Europe, as well as the political situation after the refer\u00adendum and the presi\u00addential elections. She also warns of Russia\u2019s increasing influence in the upcoming parlia\u00admentary elections in 2025, as the result of the parlia\u00admentary elections would have a signif\u00adicant impact on the country\u2019s EU integration.<\/h3>\n

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Moldova\u2019s Path to the EU after the Refer\u00adendum and the Presi\u00addential Elections: Main Obstacles and Challenges
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EU enlargement and the struggle to preserve democ\u00adratic sustain\u00adability under condi\u00adtions of unprece\u00addented geopo\u00adlitical turbu\u00adlence form the main context of the internal political trans\u00adfor\u00adma\u00adtions taking place in Moldova. The latest stage on Moldova\u2019s European path is associated with several diffi\u00adculties. Some of these originate within the country, diffi\u00adculties in the reform process itself, while others have external sources, chiefly, Russia\u2019s inter\u00adference in Moldovan electoral processes, which is under\u00admining democ\u00adratic devel\u00adopment and hindering Moldova\u2019s rapprochement with the EU. Before it had had time to subside, the inter\u00adna\u00adtional public outcry over the results of the refer\u00adendum on EU accession in Moldova was replaced by the shock effect of a new wave of the country\u2019s energy crisis, which is not having the best impact on the image of the pro-European author\u00adities. In the run-up to the parlia\u00admentary elections in 2025, an increase in energy prices, which will further aggravate a situation that is already hard to bear, may result in discontent and \u201cprotest moods\u201d in the populace that do not bode well for the author\u00adities. Hybrid threats, attacks and challenges continue to be integral to the Russian Federation\u2019s policy towards Moldova. Russia\u2019s tactics are difficult for Moldovan author\u00adities to control or prevent, including through preventive measures on the eve of the election campaign. Moreover, the Transnis\u00adtrian conflict continues to remain unresolved: no progress has been made towards the reinte\u00adgration of<\/em> the Transnistria into Moldov<\/em>a. Security, economic, energy and infor\u00admation challenges pose serious obstacles to reforms and trans\u00adfor\u00adma\u00adtions in the country.<\/em><\/p>\n

Opening of negoti\u00ada\u00adtions \u2014 a new stage on Moldova\u2019s European path<\/strong><\/p>\n

With the opening of EU accession negoti\u00ada\u00adtions in June 2024, Moldova entered a new stage on its European path. July saw the launch of the bilateral screening process, on the basis of which the European Commission will prepare reports assessing Moldova\u2019s level of readiness to open negoti\u00ada\u00adtions for each chapter. This process involves complex technical and admin\u00adis\u00adtrative efforts to amend hundreds of regula\u00adtions and create new insti\u00adtu\u00adtions, as well as to establish mecha\u00adnisms to bring national legis\u00adlation, standards and insti\u00adtu\u00adtions in line with European standards. Since July, Moldova has managed to address seven chapters. The negoti\u00adation process for the first cluster<\/a>, which contains chapters related to the \u201cfunda\u00admentals\u201d, is scheduled to start in the first half of 2025.<\/p>\n

The EU integration process is complex and is influ\u00adenced to a high degree by its political, economic and regional context, which is currently charac\u00adterized by an extremely high level of turbu\u00adlence. In addition, the process will require consid\u00aderable effort<\/a>, time and human resources on the part of Moldova, which is already acutely feeling a shortage of the latter. It will also require a high level of profes\u00adsion\u00adalism in various fields, as well as the ability to utilize, properly and in a timely fashion, the financial resources allocated for the imple\u00admen\u00adtation of reforms. How fast Moldova advances through the negoti\u00adation process will depend mainly on how strong the political will to do so is, the admin\u00adis\u00adtrative capacity of the author\u00adities in Chisinau and the pace of progress in meeting the accession criteria and imple\u00admenting key reforms, especially in the area of justice and anti-corruption. This latter area is one in which Moldova is having particular diffi\u00adculty, despite some progress noted by the European Commission.<\/p>\n

The EU has strict rules regarding the granting of prefer\u00adences. The negoti\u00adating framework that the EU estab\u00adlished for Moldova specif\u00adi\u00adcally autho\u00adrises the European Commission to recommend the suspension of negoti\u00ada\u00adtions in the case of a serious and persistent breach of the values on which the Union is based, either on its own initiative or at the justified request of a Member State. A recom\u00admen\u00addation of this kind would be accom\u00adpanied by a proposal formu\u00adlating condi\u00adtions for a resumption of negoti\u00ada\u00adtions. Should the Council suspend the negoti\u00ada\u00adtions, the Commission would be respon\u00adsible for assessing devel\u00adop\u00adments and recom\u00admending the resumption of negoti\u00ada\u00adtions once Moldova had met all condi\u00adtions. The work of the leading insti\u00adtu\u00adtional struc\u00adtures is crucial in the accession negoti\u00adation process but much also depends on the internal state of affairs in Moldovan politics, in particular the distri\u00adb\u00adution of political forces in Parliament as a result of Moldova\u2019s forth\u00adcoming parlia\u00admentary elections in 2025. The ability to counter external influence from Russia will be crucial.<\/p>\n

Russia consti\u00adtutes the chief source of external challenges along Moldova\u2019s path to the EU<\/strong><\/p>\n

Russia continues to wield signif\u00adicant influence in Moldova and support for Putinism in the country persists. In addition to providing additional triggers for political manip\u00adu\u00adla\u00adtions of the pro-Russian political forces in Moldova and pro-Russian citizens, who support the Kremlin policy and deepening divisions in society, this influence and support act as powerful desta\u00adbi\u00adlizing factors, enabling Russia to interfere in electoral processes and undermine democ\u00adratic processes and Moldova\u2019s progress towards EU accession. Russia also continues to actively exploit oppor\u00adtu\u00adnities to provide illegal financing to pro-Russian political forces in Moldova. These forces then use the funds to bribe voters, so the funding is a tool to boost the destructive effects of electoral corruption.<\/p>\n

Against the background of the struggle between pro-Russian and pro-European forces, Moldova is still considered a country with a hybrid regime<\/a>, and indicator-based assess\u00adments of democ\u00adratic consol\u00adi\u00addation in the country still place it in the so-called hybrid zone. This is largely due to the power struggle with pro-Russian political forces supported by Moscow, which seeks to maintain its influence and control over Moldova and prevent it from fully aligning with the EU. This dynamic continues to influence the persistent divisions within Moldovan society.<\/p>\n

The recent presi\u00addential election in Moldova was an important turning point with respect to the country\u2019s democ\u00adratic and geopo\u00adlitical landscape, revealing its internal complexity and vulnerable nature, which pro-Russian forces are exploiting for the purposes of political manip\u00adu\u00adlation. This poses a serious challenge to Moldova\u2019s European aspira\u00adtions. The geographic distri\u00adb\u00adution of votes \u201cfor\u201d and \u201cagainst\u201d accession to the EU in the refer\u00adendum clearly reveals the full scale of the outreach work that must be done in the coming years, which will neces\u00adsarily include strength\u00adening strategic commu\u00adni\u00adcation with popula\u00adtions living in the north and south of the country, as well as the adjacent terri\u00adtories of the security zone bordering the Transnis\u00adtrian region.<\/p>\n

Challenges in the field of energy security<\/strong><\/p>\n

While Russia has used energy blackmail against Moldova on numerous occasions, the current energy crisis in Moldova is the most severe the country has faced in the years of its existence as independent state. The crisis resulted from Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and ongoing attacks on the Ukrainian energy infra\u00adstructure, in combi\u00adnation with a number of other factors. The search for oppor\u00adtu\u00adnities to diversify energy resources and mitigate the conse\u00adquences of the energy crisis has already begun. The assis\u00adtance of European partners in this process has played and continues to play a crucial role in maintaining the state\u2019s viability and function\u00adality. In the current year, 2024, Moldova joined in the efforts to integrate the Romanian, Moldovan and Ukrainian electricity systems, a project leading to a further diver\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adcation of Moldova\u2019s energy flows, as well as support for Ukraine\u2019s energy supply, . In May 2024, the United States provided additional financial resources<\/a> to Moldova through cross-sectoral cooper\u00adation to support energy devel\u00adopment, including but not limited to cyber\u00adse\u00adcurity. This follows signif\u00adicant investment by the U.S. government in Moldova\u2019s energy sector. Moreover, the continued support from the European Union, the World Bank and other foreign partners is essential for Moldova\u2019s energy future. Despite progress towards energy diver\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adcation, substan\u00adtially increased energy prices have had a negative impact on the Moldovan economy. The conse\u00adquences for the population of the ongoing reform in Moldova\u2019s energy sector have been dire, as the increase in gas and electricity prices in line with European standards has placed an unbearable burden on the Moldovan population. This has caused an increase in discontent and anti-government sentiment, which was reflected in the results of the refer\u00adendum and the 2024 presi\u00addential elections. After the presi\u00addential elections, Moldova was faced with a new round of the energy crisis, which has plunged the country into a very vulnerable position during the winter heating season. Pricing policy issues will be decisive in the search for alter\u00adnative solutions to regulate the crisis. On 16 December 2024, Moldova officially came under a state of emergency in the field of energy. All this has negative impacts on the image of the pro-European author\u00adities. Thus, the issue of the energy supply in Moldova one of the most powerful political resources, as well as a matter of the physical supply of resources: pro-Russian candi\u00addates run on platforms promising a return to lower energy prices, thereby manip\u00adu\u00adlating public opinion, fuelling popular discontent and creating the basis for anti-government sentiment.<\/p>\n

Hybrid challenges and threats<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hybrid challenges pose a signif\u00adicant obstacle to advancement along the path into Europe. In the current context, social media rapidly pick up and replicate political propa\u00adganda, creating funda\u00admen\u00adtally new effects of hybrid risk perception. During the 2024 presi\u00addential elections, state insti\u00adtu\u00adtions came under hybrid attacks. Numerous manip\u00adu\u00adlation tactics, elements of black PR, and disin\u00adfor\u00admation were used to tarnish the image of the Moldovan president and to disrupt the refer\u00adendum on EU accession. The criminal group \u201cShor\u201d continues its campaign to desta\u00adbilize Moldova, actively using social networks to this end. Though measures have been taken to counteract this, it is not possible to do so to a suffi\u00adcient degree. Moldova is being subjected to a set of actions of hybrid influence<\/a> involving the use of the organized crime rings and platforms regis\u00adtered in other juris\u00addic\u00adtions, backed by partic\u00adu\u00adlarly big budgets provided by Russia. It is quite clear that Moldova will be affected by direct aggression aimed at the parlia\u00admentary elections slated for 2025.<\/p>\n

Unresolved Transnis\u00adtrian conflict as an obstacle to Moldova\u2019s path to EU membership<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Transnis\u00adtrian region, which is not under the control of Chisinau, continues to be a signif\u00adicant obstacle on Moldova\u2019s path to the EU. Of course, there is precedent for EU entry by states with unresolved terri\u00adtorial conflicts, but maintaining unity when joining the EU is important from the perspective of the terri\u00adtorial integrity of Moldova. Russia has never neglected the Transnis\u00adtrian region: it has used its soft power constantly to fuel the prevailing mood, creating obstacles to the country\u2019s reinte\u00adgration. This can be expected to continue for the near future, as Russia would not ignore the loss of control over Transnistria. The Moldovan author\u00adities, well aware that any inten\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adcation of the Transnis\u00adtrian conflict would bring with it a raft of unpre\u00addictable conse\u00adquences<\/a>, remain extremely cautious and limited in their actions. Nonetheless, any exclu\u00adsively diplo\u00admatic and peaceful resolution of the conflict would require the reinte\u00adgration of the region and its demil\u00adi\u00adta\u00adrization through the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the unrec\u00adog\u00adnized republic. Much depends on what happens in the war in Ukraine. The best of the scenarios that appear possible at this time would be that negoti\u00ada\u00adtions between Russia and Ukraine on ending hostil\u00adities might create a window for negoti\u00ada\u00adtions on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria and the estab\u00adlishment of an EU mission there.<\/p>\n

Thus, Moldova has a difficult road ahead. It is crucial that the country remain united on this road and progres\u00adsively promote the European agenda. There are key steps that must be taken to reduce external influence and to counteract the illegal financing of political forma\u00adtions and forces, as well as to fight electoral corruption. The outcome of the parlia\u00admentary elections in Moldova will largely determine the country\u2019s future along the European path, the timeframes for moving along this trajectory towards EU accession, i.e. the speed and possi\u00adbil\u00adities of realizing the commit\u00adments under\u00adtaken and for meeting EU criteria.<\/p>\n

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