{"id":70760,"date":"2025-03-12T13:09:04","date_gmt":"2025-03-12T12:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=70760"},"modified":"2025-03-12T16:41:48","modified_gmt":"2025-03-12T15:41:48","slug":"no-country-for-old-men-why-trumps-america-could-fail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/no-country-for-old-men-why-trumps-america-could-fail\/","title":{"rendered":"No country for old men! Why Trump\u2019s America could fail"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: Imago<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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Trump celebrates himself above all in his State of the Union speech. His executive orders have not only plunged his country into uncer\u00adtainty and insecurity since he took office. While Trump and his MAGA people are still on their honeymoon, the discontent with his policies \u2013 both domestic and foreign \u2013 is growing and the devas\u00adtating conse\u00adquences are increas\u00adingly being felt. Where is the US opposition and from where is there resis\u00adtance from within the liberal, pro-democ\u00adratic ranks? Our political analyst, Jackson Janes, looks at the mood in his country from Washington.<\/h3>\n

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Le roi, c\u2019est moi<\/h2>\n

Trump has only been in office for a few weeks, yet his \u201cState of the Union Speech\u201d on March 4 was a promotion of the blizzard of executive direc\u00adtives issued and an annun\u00adci\u00adation of a \u201cgolden age\u201d the US was supposedly entering, but first and foremost it was a celebration of himself. It was also a platform for denigrating his opponents \u2013 the Democrats were sitting mostly in silent protest.  Across from them sat the energetic Repub\u00adlicans, cheering every word Trump delivered.<\/p>\n

Trump was the dominant force in the room, stating himself as the executor of the American voters\u2019 will by changing and trans\u00adforming policies and insti\u00adtu\u00adtions and picking up high speed in rounding of illegal immigrants, firing overpaid and under\u00adworking bureau\u00adcrats, elimi\u00adnating agencies or intim\u00adi\u00addating other trading partners with tariffs. He announced to extend the reach of American influence and dominance as well as to withdraw it elsewhere. His disruptive work is moving fast and, as he proudly proclaimed \u201cwe are just getting started\u201d. Hundreds of executive actions are on the books along with over a hundred executive orders. The avalanche of activity traps attention, it is Steve Bannon\u2019s strategy of \u201cflooding the zone\u201c in action: Keeping the focus on movement if not on substance.<\/p>\n

Offended and revengeful<\/h2>\n

The speech included angry attacks on the Democrats and former president, Joe Biden in particular whom he called \u201cthe worst President in American history\u201d, thereby revealing an under\u00adlying motive of his presi\u00addency: Revenge against all those who he sees as respon\u00adsible for his \u201cperse\u00adcu\u00adtions\u201d in the past eight years \u2013 the trials, the indict\u00adments, all of which were labeled as witch hunts.<\/p>\n

Over the last decade, Trump has been able to exploit the griev\u00adances felt by millions of Americans whom he associated himself with. \u201cMaking America Great Again\u201d included the strength\u00adening of the unitary presi\u00addency, that he envisions as one that is more powerful than the Congress and which he intends to expand. Already now he has far more concen\u00adtration of power than during his first presi\u00addency, including control of the White House and both the Senate and the House of Repre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00adtives with Repub\u00adlican Party majorities, (at least for the next two years) and to some extent the compo\u00adsition of the Supreme Court which has six conser\u00adv\u00ada\u00adtives and three liberal justices, three of which were nominated by Trump.<\/p>\n

Culture war<\/h2>\n

But it is the compo\u00adsition not only of the insti\u00adtu\u00adtions in Washington that is different. It is also the compo\u00adsition of American society which has been evolving in a conser\u00adv\u00adative direction. Trump was able to utilize and encourage it over the past decade. The response of the Repub\u00adlicans seated in the Capital building during Trump\u2019s speech was a portrait of that trans\u00adfor\u00admation. The control Trump wields over the Repub\u00adlican Party has become pervasive not only among elected officials in Washington but throughout the country.<\/p>\n

It is this swing in society that Trump\u2019s speech played upon, it was about feelings more than about facts, about promises more than about specific policies. It aimed at the current  culture war, on issues like \u201cwokeness\u201d and LGBTQI+, that MAGA rejects. Trump staged himself as captain of radical changes that are moving along at a daily if not hourly speed:  The firing of federal workers, elimi\u00adnation of depart\u00adments, the creation of DOGE, stopping of inter\u00adna\u00adtional  aid programs, imposing of tariffs on allies, stopping aid support for Ukraine, the reclaiming of the Panama Canal, announcing  Canada to become part of the US and the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico and so on...<\/p>\n

Global conse\u00adquences of Trump\u2019s erratic politics<\/h2>\n

Whether his plans are achievable or not: Many of these efforts have left much uncer\u00adtainty in the air in Washington. Escalation of conflict with global partners in the form of tariffs have upset the markets and the unpre\u00addictability of Trump himself reduces confi\u00addence in the admin\u00adis\u00adtration dependent on the whims of one man. In fact, the confi\u00addence in American leadership, let alone trust in long-standing-partner\u00adships, has eroded at a time when the global arena is turning increas\u00adingly dangerous and the future of the US course on the world stage is unpredictable.<\/p>\n

The recent drama surrounding the Oval Office clash between Ukraine\u2019s President Zelenskyy and Trump was an especially shocking display of disparaging another country and its leader. But Trump was aiming at doing a deal with Vladimir Putin and Zekelnskyy was simply in the way for the sake of not wanting to witness his country be erased from the map. Trump has a record of disparaging other national leaders who disagree with him.  That message was heard elsewhere around the world.<\/p>\n

Dissat\u00adis\u00adfaction with Trump\u2019s domestic and inter\u00adna\u00adtional deals is rising<\/h2>\n

Trump is widely known as a very trans\u00adac\u00adtional character who sees the deals he so often cites as his strength. But when those deals are all zero-sum-equations \u2013 one wins and the other loses \u2013 it leads to resent\u00adments and a dislike of relation\u00adships defied by values. In these first few weeks in the Oval Office, Trump has approached relations with partners as antag\u00ado\u00adnists often labeling them as countries that have been unfair to the United States. A recent reference to the European Union as having been invented to \u201cscrew America\u201d is charac\u00adter\u00adistic of his tactics.  If the notion of dealing with other countries is primarily based on deep griev\u00adances, what chance is there to reach a stable basis for a relationship?<\/p>\n

Trump uses his deal-maker-method\u00adology both domes\u00adti\u00adcally as well as in approaching his agenda in inter\u00adna\u00adtional relations. That may invig\u00adorate his MAGA followers and personal stake holders by making him appear as a tough negotiator and President. However, it can also lead to broad concerns among the American public: His radical cuts to government enhanced by Musk\u2019s DOGE-department are starting to leave their mark on families and friends who are losing their jobs by the thousands with far more expected along with major cuts in the budget. His decreasing interest in dealing with Ukrainian leadership and preference for working with Vladimir Putin does not reflect public opinion. That accounts more so for those in Congress who still recognize the differ\u00adences between the aggressor and victim in the war in Ukraine. The unpre\u00addictable trade policies and imple\u00admen\u00adtation of tariffs which swing back and forth are not only generally rejected by experts almost every\u00adwhere, but they also cost jobs in both the short term and long term, not to speak of the continuing challenge of inflation and grocery prices \u2013 it is exactly that which enabled Trump to be reelected last year.<\/p>\n

Consti\u00adtu\u00adtional Crisis ahead?<\/h2>\n

Trump has his own grievance agenda, both personally and as president.  Whether that stays in sync with American voters depends on how well his promises of a \u201cgolden age for Americans\u201d become reality. He and his supporters are seeking to reset both the insti\u00adtu\u00adtional environment of the American government as well as the ideology serving the national narra\u00adtives. Steps taken by Trump to justify the pardons of those who were sentenced to jail following the Jan 6 attack on the Capital aim at that direction. So does the successful nomination of people according to their loyalty towards him \u2013 those who strongly believe that Trump did not lose the 2020 election and spread his narrative and are also supportive of the unitary presidency.<\/p>\n

Thus the deep polar\u00adization rises between those pushing for radical changes in the direction of a more powerful presi\u00addency under Trump and those who are warning about the estab\u00adlishing of an author\u00adi\u00adtarian regime under the banner of \u201cAmerica First\u201d and \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d.<\/p>\n

The record of checks and balances in the American experience of government is built into the consti\u00adtution and its evolution over two centuries. That process was based on respect for the three major branches of government and the assumption that a president would share that respect. In both the first term in office as President as well as in the current term, Trump and his supporters have suggested that he has greater powers in Article 2 of the Consti\u00adtution which can clash with those of the system of judicial review as well as Congres\u00adsional oversight. It is likely that those clashes may wind up tested in the Supreme Court in the coming years. To what extent American democracy will be tested in general remains dependent on how members of each branch of government and the voters themselves judge what is in the interests of the country over the interests of individuals including the President of the United States.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s up to the people: How stable is American democracy?<\/h2>\n

Trump was triumphant on March 4. He has made clear that he is moving ahead with his agenda with executive actions and orders, all of which can be turned around by a new president in 2028. How much the legislative branch will exercise its oversight over the White House depends on the majorities in each chamber and their ability to challenge the executive branch. The judicial process will also be tested by the web of judges at multiple levels.<\/p>\n

The health of the American exper\u00adiment with democracy will thus be work in progress \u2013 for better and for worse. Americans have lived through both scenarios and have survived and thrived for two centuries, including a civil war, two world wars and stresses and strains on the country as it coped with fear, uncer\u00adtainty and dangers both foreign and domestic. We are currently facing all of those threats again today. In eighteen months, the Congres\u00adsional elections will be held in 2026. In the meantime, there will be an increasing effort by those critical of Trump\u2019s agenda seeking to challenge it, indeed, to halt its progress. That effort will likely emerge from the local and state levels of American society, where the impact of the changes being imple\u00admented by the Trump admin\u00adis\u00adtration will be most personally felt. That is already visible now. How catalytic it can be remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

Trump delivers his next address to the two chambers in Congress a year from now. We will see what the compo\u00adsition of the American political environment will look like then.<\/p>\n

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Spenden mit Bankeinzug<\/h2>\n

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