{"id":70990,"date":"2025-03-17T16:21:30","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T15:21:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=70990"},"modified":"2025-03-24T10:38:55","modified_gmt":"2025-03-24T09:38:55","slug":"transatlantic-dialogue-after-the-big-rift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/transatlantic-dialogue-after-the-big-rift\/","title":{"rendered":"The Big Rift: On the Future of Transat\u00adlantic Partnership"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_70970\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-70970\" style=\"width: 1200px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img class=\"wp-image-70970 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20250317163417\/big-rift_1200x500.jpg\" alt width=\"1200\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20250317163417\/big-rift_1200x500.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20250317163417\/big-rift_1200x500-770x321.jpg 770w, https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20250317163417\/big-rift_1200x500-768x320.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-70970\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Foto: Imago<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<h2>In our first Transat\u00adlantic Online Dialogue, hosted by Ambas\u00adsador John Herbst together with Ralf F\u00fccks (Center for Liberal Modernity), we had a&nbsp;rich and constructive discussion on the future of the transat\u00adlantic partnership, thanks to Marie Mendras, Ambas\u00adsador Daniel Fried, Michael Gahler, and Robin&nbsp;Wagner.<\/h2>\n<p><!--more-->[\/\u200bvc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1yg8V2-HkA0?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]The issues discussed were not only the current state of US-European relations, with a&nbsp;particular focus on Ukraine, but also what steps Europe needs to take now to ensure Ukraine\u2019s future and its own security and stability in the face of erratic leadership and uncertain partners in the United&nbsp;States.\n<blockquote><p>Perhaps future histo\u00adrians will say that Donald Trump became an invol\u00aduntary midwife for European Defense Union \u2013 Ralf&nbsp;F\u00fccks<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In his intro\u00adductory statement, <strong>Ralf F\u00fccks<\/strong> pointed out that we were speaking at a&nbsp;time when the inter\u00adna\u00adtional world order as we knew it was crumbling before our eyes. It was the beginning of a&nbsp;new era and a&nbsp;moment of truth for Europe that would show whether it was capable of taking its security and future into its own hands. With a&nbsp;touch of optimism, F\u00fccks suggested: \u201cPerhaps future histo\u00adrians will say that Donald Trump became an invol\u00aduntary midwife for the European Defense&nbsp;Union.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>There is a&nbsp;possi\u00adbility of a&nbsp;decent outcome \u2013 Daniel&nbsp;Fried<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Daniel Fried<\/strong>, Former US Ambas\u00adsador to Poland and Fellow at Atlantic Council, pointed out that the talk was taking place after the meeting between the US delegation and Ukraine in Ryad, which had resulted in the US lifting its damaging freeze on military aid and intel\u00adli\u00adgence sharing.&nbsp; The ball was now in Russia\u2019s court. It is Putin who is now under pressure, as Trump has already threatened Russia with sanctions if it rejects the ceasefire. Fried himself was slightly optimistic that the situation could turn for the better, and that Trump\u2019s plan could even serve the interests of Ukraine and&nbsp;Europe:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe French and British have stepped up and offered to lead a&nbsp;security mission inside Ukraine. They are right to insist on American support. Defense Secretary Hegseth said there was no way the U.S. would deploy soldiers inside Ukraine. But he did not mention or rule out the possi\u00adbility of American support and backup, including military backup for a&nbsp;European force inside Ukraine. So there is a&nbsp;possi\u00adbility of a&nbsp;decent outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I am confident that a&nbsp;new coalition in Germany will take a&nbsp;new stance, so that by Easter, a&nbsp;new government will adopt a [stronger] position of the Baltic and the Nordic states \u2013 Michael&nbsp;Gahler<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Michael Gahler<\/strong>, Member of the European Parliament (CDU), agreed that the Russians are now under pressure because of the ceasefire proposal. He empha\u00adsized Germany\u2019s role in a&nbsp;new and strong Europe that is emerging: \u201cI am confident that a&nbsp;new coalition in Germany will take a&nbsp;new stance, so that by Easter, a&nbsp;new government will adopt a [stronger] position of the Baltic and the Nordic&nbsp;states.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Germany, he added, will give it real weight within the EU, being in line with the British Prime Minister and President Macron. What is currently devel\u00adoping is something that has a&nbsp;good chance of forming a&nbsp;strong position in support of Ukraine, he&nbsp;said.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The Europeans are back \u2013 Marie&nbsp;Mendras<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Marie Mendras<\/strong>, an expert in Russian and post-Soviet studies and a&nbsp;professor at Sciences Po University, pointed to the new strength that Europe has built up in recent weeks. The Kremlin, she said, could not decipher what was happening in Europe because it did not under\u00adstand how NATO and the EU worked. Thanks to the work of European countries and the leadership of Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, followed by many other European leaders, the Canadian leader, the Europeans are back, she said. She added that it was extremely important for Germany to be back in the center. She said the bonds between Europe were stronger than those between Trump and&nbsp;Putin.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor Putin, the situation is not as good as it was 2&nbsp;weeks ago. For Trump, the situation is also not as good as it was 2&nbsp;weeks ago. The Europeans are back! And they are very strong. The Trump-Putin duo is a&nbsp;very tactile, fragile axis of convenience.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>No other Minsk! \u2013 Marie&nbsp;Mendras<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>She referred to President Macron, who had demanded a&nbsp;ceasefire only alongside a&nbsp;strong peace agreement, with all the issues already on the table: from prisoner exchanges to post-war repara\u00adtions. \u201cNo other Minsk!\u201d had to be the motto for the current and future&nbsp;meetings.<\/p>\n<p>It was made clear that there would be no relations between Moscow and Washington without the Ukrainians. Trump wanted to put pressure on us and on the Ukrainians. Now he had to pressure Putin. \u201cPutin feels trapped. His options have narrowed. But he cannot spoil this relationship with the American president today,\u201d she&nbsp;said.<\/p>\n<p>The current question for Europe is whether there will be European troops on the ground to guarantee a&nbsp;ceasefire, she said. A&nbsp;question that requires a&nbsp;difficult answer.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>These days in Germany we are negoti\u00adating the biggest investment in the military we have ever made. We need to step up as Europeans and as Germans \u2013 Robin&nbsp;Wagener<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Robin Wagener,<\/strong> member of the German Bundestag (Alliance 90\/\u200bThe Greens), looked at the current negoti\u00ada\u00adtions taking place in&nbsp;Germany.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese days in Germany we are negoti\u00adating the biggest investment in the military we have ever made. We have to do it in a&nbsp;hurry. We have to step up as Europeans, and that means we have to step up as Germans in this alliance of European stability and peace. And we should be very careful that we do it in the spirit of acting as a&nbsp;strong European pillar within a&nbsp;transat\u00adlantic partnership that still&nbsp;exists.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The current Atlantic pillar is unpre\u00addictable and unreliable. One needs to work on the basis of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. Europeans are in a&nbsp;better position now, he said, but there is an urgent need for Europeans to grow up and take European security into their own hands, while hoping for changes in the United States and perhaps for more US interest in the transat\u00adlantic partnership in the future. Maybe new alliances could be built then, which would work on an equal partnership basis.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, however, the USA is neither inter\u00adested in a&nbsp;stable peace and security order in Europe nor in supporting democ\u00adratic states but rather acts in a&nbsp;trans\u00adac\u00adtional&nbsp;manner.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Europe needs to be able to act when the Americans are absent. This does not mean the end of the transat\u00adlantic alliance \u2013 Daniel&nbsp;Fried<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ambas\u00adsador <strong>Daniel Fried<\/strong> reflected on the Kremlin\u2019s possible reactions to the ceasefire proposal, which contain several potential traps for Europeans to fall&nbsp;into.<\/p>\n<p>He analyzed the Trump admin\u00adis\u00adtration as consisting of several different, deeply divided&nbsp;groups:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Neo-Reaganites, who still believed in the free&nbsp;world;<\/li>\n<li>The Asia-firsters, who believed that the U.S. should focus almost entirely on Asia, and especially China, instead of supporting&nbsp;Europe;<\/li>\n<li>the Yalta group, or the George Orwell group, that advocates dividing the world into three big zones of&nbsp;interest.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It remained to be seen which of these groups would&nbsp;prevail.<\/p>\n<p>However, he added: \u201cEurope\u2019s efforts to stand up could mean a&nbsp;happy ending to the current disruptive phase of affairs: this could be the case if Europeans under\u00adstand that Europe needs strategic capabil\u00adities and strategic autonomy. This would mean that Europe would be able to act when the Americans are absent for whatever reason. This would not mean the end of the transat\u00adlantic&nbsp;alliance\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTrump loves winning more than anything else,\u201d Fried said. \u201cIf he can be convinced that winning is pushing back on Putin to get a&nbsp;good deal on Ukraine and making a&nbsp;deal with the Europeans so that they actually stand up and contribute more to their own defense, then he can say and claim that he saved the transat\u00adlantic alliance and saved&nbsp;NATO.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Michael Gahler<\/strong> added that strategic autonomy means building an indus\u00adtrial base to become self-suffi\u00adcient in producing what is&nbsp;needed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen the dust settles and the chaos subsides, when the politics in the U.S. hits reality, and hopefully soon, I&nbsp;think there should be a&nbsp;realization that we are always ready to be there as partners. We want this partnership to&nbsp;continue.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The current ceasefire proposal had been drafted mainly by the Ukrainians with the Europeans, but they had wisely given Trump the courtesy of presenting it as his own plan \u2013 Marie&nbsp;Mendras<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Ralf F\u00fccks <\/strong>pointed out that Europeans need to come to terms with each other and find unity on the question of what are the minimum goals of the outcome of the war: \u201cWhat do we want to achieve? What are we willing to negotiate with&nbsp;Russia?\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Marie Mendras<\/strong> empha\u00adsized the talent of Vladimir Zelensky to maintain his own dignity during the White House drama. His popularity had soared after the Oval Office disaster and was a&nbsp;motivation for all the meetings and decisions that took place in Europe after\u00adwards, she said. Europe had to build on Zelen\u00adsky\u2019s ability to ensure that Trump could save&nbsp;face.<\/p>\n<p>The current ceasefire proposal, she said, had been drafted mainly by the Ukrainians with the Europeans, but they had wisely given Trump the courtesy of presenting it as his own plan. It was now a&nbsp;test of will. It both gave Donald Trump a&nbsp;trophy and renewed the US military and intel\u00adli\u00adgence support that had put the Russian army and the Kremlin in a&nbsp;position of&nbsp;weakness.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Robin Wagner<\/strong> added that Russia is in a&nbsp;bad situation right now and should not always be overes\u00adti\u00admated. The country has both economic problems and problems with internal&nbsp;stability.<\/p>\n<p>The last point of discussion was the idea of holding elections in Ukraine. An idea, as Marie Mendras pointed out, that origi\u00adnally came from Russia and was put on the table by Trump. All partic\u00adi\u00adpants agreed that elections would tear Ukraine apart and should not be held until a&nbsp;secure peace is estab\u00adlished. Ambas\u00adsador <strong>John Herbst<\/strong> also noted that neither civil society nor the opposition wanted elections, which would be impos\u00adsible to hold in the midst of an ongoing&nbsp;war.<\/p>\n<p>The very lively presen\u00adtation resulted in an extremely knowl\u00adedgeable discussion that shed light on different perspec\u00adtives of the current state of affairs in the relationship between the U.S. and Europe, and Ukraine in particular. To be repeated&nbsp;soon!<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-23921 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905145906\/textende.png\" alt=\"Textende\" width=\"40\" height=\"120\">[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][vc_column_text]Hat Ihnen unser Beitrag gefallen? Dann spenden Sie doch einfach und bequem \u00fcber unser Spendentool. 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