{"id":71179,"date":"2025-03-18T10:29:38","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T09:29:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=71179"},"modified":"2025-03-18T12:44:14","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T11:44:14","slug":"donald-trump-is-even-going-further-than-chamberlain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/donald-trump-is-even-going-further-than-chamberlain\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump is even going further than Chamberlain"},"content":{"rendered":"

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As US President Donald Trump moves to reshape transat\u00adlantic ties, experts warn that the EU must unite to counter global threats. Following Germany\u2019s elections, RFI\u2019s Jan van der Made spoke with Ralf F\u00fccks about how Europe should respond to Washington\u2019s shifting stance. <\/span><\/h3>\n
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RFI: <\/strong>In the newspaper Der Spiegel<\/a>, you compare today\u2019s events to both the 1938 Munich meeting and the 1945 Yalta Conference, where Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin shaped Europe\u2019s future. How do these historical parallels apply now?<\/em><\/p>\n

Ralf F\u00fccks: <\/strong>It\u2019s always a little bit dangerous to slip into this kind of historical comparison. There is no fatalism to repeat history, but I think we have to be aware that we are now again in an extremely critical and dangerous situation in Europe.<\/p>\n

Munich, after Hitler took power, is the reference for appeasement policy. But Donald Trump is even going further than Chamberlain went in Munich in 1938 with Hitler\u2019s Germany. He is not only trying to appease Putin with conces\u00adsions, but taking sides with neo-imperial and author\u00adi\u00adtarian Russia against Ukraine and against former European allies of the US.<\/p>\n

The situation is more like Yalta, because Trump is sharing the idea of Putin and of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, about a new world order where the world is dominated by the big powers which can do what they want without being restricted by rules.<\/p>\n

Smaller nations submit to the big powers which divide the world into spheres of influence, like big boys who are at the same time collab\u00ado\u00adrating and competing with each other.<\/p>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin in his June 2020 essay<\/a> on the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II, very clearly said that his vision was the one that came out of Yalta: the return to an agreement with the US about the division of the spheres of influence.<\/p>\n

He does not believe in the idea of equality and shared sover\u00adeignty between all the nations. NOTE: Putin\u2019s essay reads, \u201cThe major historic achievement of Yalta and other decisions of that time is the agreement to create a mechanism that would allow the leading powers to remain within the framework of diplomacy in resolving their differences.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump also shares this view, notably that nations like Ukraine are to have only limited sover\u00adeignty and that they have to accept that Russia has a veto power over Ukraine\u2019s future.<\/p>\n

And this is a total contra\u00addiction of the European post-Cold War order. If we accept that, Europe will become a playground for China, the US and Russia.<\/p>\n

RFI: <\/strong>What should Europe do?<\/em><\/p>\n

Ralf F\u00fccks: <\/strong>It is very hard to believe that the West as a political entity of liberal democ\u00adracies is over and that we are entering a new political era, no longer relying on the US security guarantees, but one where the United States, at least under the presi\u00addency of Donald Trump, will turn on Europe and treat us not as friends, but as adversaries.<\/p>\n

This moment is extremely critical, not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe. It is a litmus test as to whether Europe will stay relevant globally or if we will become a punching ball between China, Russia and the US.<\/p>\n

As for Ukraine, the test is about our ability to defend the European security order, the principles on which this order was built, and if we can defend our values.<\/p>\n

It is not just about solidarity with Ukraine, a country which is now suffering more than three years of war of destruction. It is also about defending Europe.<\/p>\n

In the short term, the answer is weapons, weapons, weapons. We have to replace American military supply to Ukraine. Possibly for an interim period, the Europeans [could]  buy weapons in the US and send them to Ukraine. But then we have to build up our own military industries.<\/p>\n

We must enable Ukraine to resist and to come into a better negoti\u00adation position with Russia, not from the defensive, but from a position of strength.<\/p>\n

And we must build a common European Defence Union with Ukraine. Ukraine could be an asset for European security.<\/p>\n

RFI: <\/strong>You have mentioned the failures of the Minsk agree\u00adments<\/a>. What lessons can we pull from those negoti\u00ada\u00adtions and what comes after in possible future negoti\u00ada\u00adtions with Russia?<\/em><\/p>\n

Ralf F\u00fccks: <\/strong>Ukraine should never again negotiate from a position of weakness. In Minsk 2014\u20132015, Ukraine was on the brink of military collapse. And this may never happen again. So if we want to have negoti\u00ada\u00adtions with Russia, we have to bring Ukraine into a position of military strength. The outcome of negoti\u00ada\u00adtions will depend on the military balance of force.<\/p>\n

The second conse\u00adquence from Minsk is that we cannot bring Russia into a position of brokering a deal. We have to treat Russia as an adversary. And the Europeans cannot be neutral in this conflict. We have to take sides with Ukraine. And we should not lift sanctions on Russia prematurely.<\/p>\n

Sanctions go further than military support for Ukraine, our most effective tool to change Russia\u2019s policy. Lifting sanctions wouldn\u2019t only be about ending the war. We must raise other issues: the retreat of Russian nuclear arms from Belarus, from Kalin\u00adingrad, to reduce the nuclear threat to Europe. The release of political prisoners from Russian prison camps.<\/p>\n

So we must build a package of political demands to Russia as a precon\u00addition for restoring economic relations.<\/p>\n

RFI: <\/strong>Given all the changes in the US foreign policy, how do you feel that in the current situation the relationship can be saved?<\/em><\/p>\n

Ralf F\u00fccks: <\/strong>As long as Trump and his fellows are ruling in Washington, it only can be about damage control. We have to be strong econom\u00adi\u00adcally, military, polit\u00adi\u00adcally, in order not to be black\u00admailed by the US.<\/p>\n

We have to accept that with Trump you can only do trans\u00adac\u00adtional policies. So we have to define our interests and then negotiate with the US where we can strike deals in our interest.<\/p>\n

One point of interest could be future policy towards China. If the US wants us to become tougher against China, especially in economic terms, reducing our economic depen\u00addency on China, not deliv\u00adering critical technology to China, then we should ask the US in return to keep engaged in Europe.<\/p>\n

The critical point is the nuclear guarantee. At the moment, even the combined French and British nuclear capac\u00adities will not be suffi\u00adcient to deter Russia and to create a nuclear balance with Russia. So we have to increase our nuclear capac\u00adities. This is an issue we cannot avoid.<\/p>\n

RFI: <\/strong>France and Germany together are the motor of the European Union. But the relationship has not been great, with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, differing in style and approach. Will the relationship get better under Friedrich Merz, who is likely to become Germany\u2019s new Chancellor after the elections on 23 February?<\/em><\/p>\n

Ralf F\u00fccks: <\/strong>Let\u2019s be realistic. I think there is no way back to this former exclusive French-German leadership in Europe. This is over. We have to recognise that the central eastern European nations, especially Poland, but also [the Czech Republic] the Baltic states, the Scandi\u00adna\u00advians, will play a much more self-assertive and important role.<\/p>\n

So, we have to broaden the leadership board of the European Union.<\/p>\n

But of course, a restart of Franco-German relations is absolutely crucial. We are almost in an all-time low. The same with Poland. And the desig\u00adnated new German Chancellor, Merz has already, before the elections, announced that his first visit will lead him to Warsaw and Paris.<\/p>\n

And I think this is the right signal.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The article was published on 01.03.2025 in RFI<\/a>.[\/\u200bvc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext]<\/p>

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