{"id":71748,"date":"2025-04-02T15:12:50","date_gmt":"2025-04-02T13:12:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=71748"},"modified":"2026-01-21T17:30:01","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T16:30:01","slug":"putins-and-xi-jinpings-unholy-alliance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/putins-and-xi-jinpings-unholy-alliance\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin\u2019s and Xi Jinping\u2019s unholy alliance"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: Imago<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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Beijing and Moscow are linked by a strategic partnership and a common adversary, \u201cthe West\u201d. Senior Diplomat Johannes Regen\u00adbrecht analyzes for us what this alliance is about, what interests Xi Jinping is pursuing in Putin\u2019s large-scale war against Ukraine and what challenges the Russian-Chinese alliance faces from an erratic president in the White House. The US and the European Union must be aware that restric\u00adtions on Ukraine\u2019s sover\u00adeignty will set a signif\u00adicant precedent not only for Europe, but also for the Indo-Pacific region.<\/h3>\n

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Contents<\/h3>\n

1. Xi Jinping and Putin \u2013 An Unequal Couple<\/a><\/p>\n

2. The Causes of the \u201cUkraine Crisis\u201d and the \u201cSeven Evils\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

3. Xi\u2019s Trauma of the Collapse of the Soviet Union and the CPSU<\/a><\/p>\n

4. \u201cLaw\u201d and \u201cForce\u201d and the Primacy of the CCP<\/a><\/p>\n

5. China\u2019s 12-Point Plan on Ukraine \u2013 Ambition and Reality<\/a>[\/\u200bvc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext]<\/p>

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1. Xi Jinping and Putin \u2013 An Unequal Couple<\/h3>\n

China\u2019s policy towards Russia and Putin\u2019s large-scale attack on Ukraine<\/strong> is commonly described as a clever maneu\u00advering between supporting the \u201cstrategic partner\u201d in Moscow and avoiding damage to relations with the \u201cWest\u201d, in short \u201cpro-Russian neutrality\u201d<\/strong>.[1]<\/a> A failure of Putin, including a collapse of the regime in Moscow, would be a geopo\u00adlitical disaster from the Chinese point of view. It would tear open China\u2019s terri\u00adtorial bulwark in the landmass of North Asia and open a gateway for its strategic rival, the United States. That is why China provides its neighbor with extensive political and economic support. Without China as a \u201cdecisive enabler\u201d, Putin would not be able to wage his war of aggression in its current form.[2]<\/a> However, Chinese Communist Party\u2019s as well as military and state leader Xi Jinping has also shown \u201cred lines\u201d to his junior partner Putin, whom he sees as difficult to predict, with a view to prevent a global escalation of the conflict.[3]<\/a><\/p>\n

At the same time, Beijing remains anxious to continue to dynam\u00adi\u00adcally expand its vital export markets in Europe and North America, to avoid third-country sanctions, and to be perceived worldwide, especially by the Global South, as a balanced partner keen to contribute to a peaceful conflict resolution. At its core, it is about minimizing the political and economic costs associated with supporting Russia<\/strong>. Within the framework of the United Nations, the People\u2019s Republic of China has consis\u00adtently abstained from resolu\u00adtions condemning Russia, most recently from the two different draft resolu\u00adtions submitted by Ukraine and the United States to the General Assembly on the third anniversary of the start of Russia\u2019s full scale attack on February 24, 2025.[4]<\/a> In the Security Council, however, Beijing, together with the US and Russia, excep\u00adtionally agrees on the same day to the minimalist text intro\u00adduced by Washington, which is pro-Russian because it does not name the aggressor.[5]<\/a> In its political state\u00adments, China avoids any condem\u00adnation of Russia, but at the same time repeatedly refers abstractly to the principle of the invio\u00adla\u00adbility of sover\u00adeignty and terri\u00adtorial integrity of states.<\/p>\n

The current result of the Chinese course is impressive<\/strong>: The appearance of Chinese equidis\u00adtance catches on with many countries of the Global South. Despite Trump, support for Ukraine continues to tie up US military resources and thus limits Washing\u00adton\u2019s room for maneuver with regard to the potential major conflict over Taiwan in the future. The war between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East has deepened the gap between \u201cthe West\u201d and the Global South, thus indirectly benefiting China. The regime in Moscow is firmly in the saddle but is becoming increas\u00adingly dependent on Beijing. At the same time, China remains the European Union\u2019s second-largest trading partner after the United State with a share of 15 percent.[6]<\/a> In addition, the current chaos in Washington, the U\u2011turn in U.S.-Ukraine policy under Trump and the disin\u00adte\u00adgration of the political West play into China\u2019s hands.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s like an upside-down world<\/strong>: At his press conference on March 7, 2025 on the occasion of this year\u2019s Plenary Session of the National People\u2019s Congress, the chairman of the Central Committee Commission for Foreign Policy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi praised his country as an irreplaceable pillar of the UN Charter and inter\u00adna\u00adtional order: \u201cWe will be a just and righteous force for world peace and stability\u201d, adding that Beijing will counter global uncer\u00adtainty through providing \u201ccertainty to this uncertain world\u201d[7]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Never\u00adtheless, Beijing cannot sit back and wait but must take precau\u00adtions not to be overwhelmed by the dynamics of current events<\/strong>. The unpre\u00addictable leader of China\u2019s \u201cstrategic partner\u201d Russia has been joined by an at least equally unpre\u00addictable President at the head of Beijing\u2019s strategic rival, the USA.  This erratic duo alone runs deeply counter to the deeply rooted desire of the leadership of the \u201cMiddle Kingdom\u201d for strategic planning. Trump\u2019s ceasefire initiative and intensive talks between Washington and Moscow cannot leave China untouched. A cessation of military support for Ukraine and a possible withdrawal from Europe by the US would weaken NATO, deepen the rift between America and Europe and thus promote Xi\u2019s agenda of even stronger economic, but above all political, European ties to China. However, the resources thus freed up could promote a bundling of Washing\u00adton\u2019s political-military focus on Northeast Asia and Taiwan, a military \u201cpivot to Asia\u201d, and thus cloud the prospects of realizing the \u201cChinese dream,\u201d which includes a, if possible, peaceful \u201creuni\u00adfi\u00adcation\u201d of Taiwan with the Chinese motherland during Xi\u2019s lifetime.[8]<\/a><\/p>\n

Thus, despite the geographical distance, the fate of Ukraine<\/strong> hits deep into the geopo\u00adlitical heart of China<\/strong>: No matter how Trump ultimately positions himself in a \u201cpeace deal\u201d, it is about the geopo\u00adlitical measurement of spheres of influence and the challenge posed by China\u2019s only strategic adversary on an equal footing, the USA. Trump\u2019s unpre\u00addictability makes it even more difficult to deal with the tension between the great powers in a ratio\u00adnally calcu\u00adlated way.<\/p>\n

China publicly acknowl\u00adedged in a joint statement with Russia in May 2024 that its strategic partnership with Moscow<\/strong>, despite repeated claims that it is not directed against a third country,[9]<\/a> is aimed at the USA. In the verbose decla\u00adration of principles, which runs to around 8,000 words in its English trans\u00adlation and marked the 75th anniversary of the estab\u00adlishment of diplo\u00admatic relations on May 16, 2024, both countries declared their intention to counter the \u201cthe US\u2019 non-constructive and hostile policy of so-called \u201cdual containment\u201d against China and Russia\u201d.[10]<\/a> This makes it unmis\u00adtakably clear: The goal of the \u201cChina-Russia Compre\u00adhensive Strategic Partnership of Coordi\u00adnation for the New Era\u201d is aimed at their common systemic rival, the USA.<\/p>\n

2. The Causes of the \u201cUkraine Crisis\u201d and the \u201cSeven Evils\u201d<\/h3>\n

Moscow and Beijing also agree on their analysis of the causes of what Beijing euphemisti\u00adcally calls the \u201cUkraine Crisis\u201d[11]<\/a>: In Beijing\u2019s internal analysis, the real warmongers are the US and its Western allies, their weapon being the expansion of NATO and the instru\u00admen\u00adtal\u00adization of Ukraine as a spearhead, thereby threat\u00adening Russia\u2019s and indirectly China\u2019s security.[12]<\/a> In the case of Ukraine, Xi Jinping goes even further, claiming the necessity to defend against alleged Western inter\u00adference in the country\u2019s internal affairs by means of a \u201ccolor revolution.\u201d Xi thus portrays Putin\u2019s aggression against the sovereign neigh\u00adboring state of Ukraine as a defensive struggle against an invasive West that seeks to impose its ideas of democracy and the rule of law on the country and then use it as a vehicle for exporting these ideas to other countries.[13]<\/a><\/p>\n

With this, Xi is building on a key directive from the first months of his term in office, the \u201cCommu\u00adniqu\u00e9 on the Current State of the Ideological Sphere. A Notice from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China\u2019s General Office\u201d, or Document No. 9\/\u200b2013<\/strong> for short. It is a program\u00admatic, funda\u00admental text that Xi had issued inter\u00adnally within the government for instruction and training purposes a few months after his initial election as General Secretary[14]<\/a> of the CPC Central Committee on April 22, 2013. It was published after being leaked in August 2013.[15]<\/a> The document, in whose drafting Xi himself and his chief ideol\u00adogist Wang Huning[16]<\/a> are said to have played a leading role, is a decla\u00adration of war on the political West and its values<\/strong>. At its core, it denounces \u201cseven evils\u201d whose spread in China must be prevented. The CPC sees itself under attack by \u201cWestern anti-Chinese forces\u201d that seek to destroy the party through \u201cWestern\u00adization.\u201d The party\u2019s existential threats are, in particular,<\/p>\n