{"id":71904,"date":"2025-04-16T10:55:23","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T08:55:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/overshoot-einmal-ueber-15c-und-zurueck\/"},"modified":"2025-04-16T12:24:45","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T10:24:45","slug":"overshoot-can-we-exceed-and-return-to-1-5c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/overshoot-can-we-exceed-and-return-to-1-5c\/","title":{"rendered":"Overshoot \u2013 Can we exceed and return to 1.5\u00b0C?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Foto: Imago<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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Recent trends show that we will almost certainly exceed 1.5\u00b0C by the early 2030s, even if efforts to rapidly reduce emissions increase. In climate science, there is increasing discussion of \u201covershoot\u201d \u2013 exceeding 1.5\u00b0C and then returning to it by the end of the century. Our factsheet by Andy Reisinger explains what the temporary temper\u00adature overshoot means for (ir)reversible conse\u00adquences, what is needed to get back to 1.5\u00b0C and what needs to be done now to achieve this.<\/h3>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]It is increas\u00adingly unlikely that global warming can be limited to 1.5\u00b0C. Never\u00adtheless, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5\u00b0C remains a rhetorical point of reference for many political decla\u00adra\u00adtions, national climate targets and laws, and corporate strategies. This growing discrepancy between stated goals and reality can only be recon\u00adciled if it is assumed that exceeding 1.5\u00b0C is only temporary and that global warming will be reduced back below 1.5\u00b0C before the end of the century. This trajectory \u2013 crossing the 1.5\u00b0C threshold and then lowering global warming below that threshold \u2013 is referred to as \u201covershoot\u201d in the scien\u00adtific liter\u00adature and in the latest reports of the Inter\u00adgov\u00adern\u00admental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).<\/p>\n

According to the IPCC\u2019s defin\u00adition, overshoot repre\u00adsents both a threat and a promise: a threat because overshooting 1.5\u00b0C will lead to inten\u00adsified impacts of climate change; a promise because bringing the temper\u00adature back down before the end of this century would lead to less long-term climate change damage than if global warming remained well above 1.5\u00b0C permanently.<\/p>\n

Our author Andy Reisinger discusses: How realistic is it to lower the temper\u00adature again? What effects of climate change could be avoided if the global temper\u00adature were to fall again, compared to a warming that remains above 1.5\u00b0C \u2013 but also what damage would be caused even by a temporary exceedance? What does this mean for global and national short- and long-term emissions targets, strategies and measures? And how realistic is the prospect of returning to below 1.5\u00b0C of global warming? Answers to these questions are crucial for the debate on whether overshoot is a viable strategy as a building block for future climate policy or a false hope that could distract from the urgent efforts to reduce emissions. The factsheet is aimed not only at experts, but also at an inter\u00adested public.[\/vc_column_text]<\/p>

FACTSHEET DOWNLOAD<\/a><\/div> [vc_separator][vc_column_text]Hat Ihnen unser Beitrag gefallen? Dann spenden Sie doch einfach und bequem \u00fcber unser Spendentool. Sie unter\u00adst\u00fctzen damit die publizis\u00adtische Arbeit von LibMod.\n

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