{"id":74102,"date":"2025-08-11T13:24:59","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T11:24:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=74102"},"modified":"2026-01-21T17:28:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T16:28:14","slug":"policy-paper-moldovas-elections-in-2025-between-pro-eu-pro-russia-and-alternative-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/policy-paper-moldovas-elections-in-2025-between-pro-eu-pro-russia-and-alternative-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Policy Paper: Moldova\u2019s Elections in 2025 \u2013 Between \u2018Pro-EU\u2019, \u2018Pro-Russia\u2019 and \u2018Alter\u00adnative\u2019 Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The parlia\u00admentary elections on September 28 will be historic in Moldova, even if the outcome is still uncertain. Various scenarios are possible: Will Moldova succeed in pushing ahead with EU accession as protection against a perceived threat from Russia? Much depends on how the population reacts to frustration and fears, as Denis Cenusa analyzes for us.<\/h3>\n

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Download PDF<\/a><\/div> [vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]On 28 September, Moldovans will go to the polls in what promises to be historic parlia\u00admentary elections. Their outcome remains uncertain. A variety of scenarios are possible, depending on how the population will respond to a mixture of fears and frustra\u00adtions: 1) the urgency of pushing forward with EU accession as a form of protection against a perceived Russian threat, versus 2) the reality on the ground, which is aggra\u00advated by socio-economic and reform-related discontent. The following policy brief takes a brief look at the current situation within the country and examines four major post-election scenarios. Each of these entails potential effects in four different areas: domestic stability, relations with the EU, resolution of the Transnis\u00adtrian conflict, and dialogue with Russia, including in light of the war in Ukraine. One of the more realistic of these scenarios involves a post-election situation in which EU accession negoti\u00ada\u00adtions are initiated once Ukraine\u2019s hurdles are surmounted another involves a shift in the political landscape that could pose challenges for the retention of EU candidate status, predi\u00adcated as it is on an election outcome that results in a coalition which chooses to follow the Georgian example. If the Moldovan government deter\u00admines that Russian inter\u00adference has affected the outcome and a PAS-majority or coalition is unlikely, then the \u201cRomanian Scenario\u201d of cancelling the elections could arise.\n

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