{"id":75796,"date":"2025-10-20T12:30:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T10:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=75796"},"modified":"2025-11-14T12:58:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T11:58:16","slug":"you-cant-win-a-war-with-a-little-bit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/you-cant-win-a-war-with-a-little-bit\/","title":{"rendered":"You can\u2019t win a war with \u2018a little bit\u2019 \u2013 Notes from Kyiv and Lviv"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d][\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n

Ralf F\u00fccks travelled to Ukraine with a LibMod tour group. The following article describes his impres\u00adsions and draws political conclu\u00adsions. The text first appeared in Welt am Sonntag.<\/h3>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]1<\/strong><\/p>\n

After three and a half years of war, many are tired and exhausted. But Ukraine\u2019s spirit of resis\u00adtance remains unbroken. In a repre\u00adsen\u00adtative survey, 75% of respon\u00addents are in favour of a ceasefire backed by inter\u00adna\u00adtional security guarantees. At the same time, a large majority rejects Russia\u2019s demands. They want an end to the war, but not a sham peace at any price.<\/p>\n

2<\/strong><\/p>\n

Russia is constantly throwing new forces to the front and increasing its arms production. In contrast, the Ukrainian side suffers from a chronic shortage of soldiers, weapons and ammunition. Never\u00adtheless, there is no fear of the front collapsing in the foreseeable future. However, Ukraine will remain trapped in a defensive stalemate as long as the Europeans do not finally muster the strength to support it with all their might.<\/p>\n

3<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ukrainians are realists. They have no illusions about a quick end to the war. <\/strong>They know that Putin\u2019s hunger will not be satisfied by throwing part of Ukraine to him as a snack. Russia\u2019s primary goal remains to bring the whole of Ukraine back under Moscow\u2019s control. It is the key to restoring the empire and shifting the spheres of power in Europe. Putin will only abandon this goal if the military balance of power shifts against him and he finds himself in dire economic straits. These are the two levers that Europe must apply. Diplomacy only has a chance if Putin loses all prospect of victory.<\/p>\n

4<\/strong><\/p>\n

All talk of security guarantees<\/em> is putting the cart before the horse. The priority must be to strengthen Ukraine\u2019s defence here and now, including its offensive capabil\u00adities. More air defence is sorely needed, but it is not enough. In future, Russia will attack with a thousand drones and more at the same time, flanked by ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Ukraine will only be able to withstand this if it can attack Russian arms factories, airports, railway lines, power stations and refineries far behind the front lines. In order to break Russia\u2019s offensive capability, it must become capable of attacking itself. The increasing domestic production of drones and cruise missiles (\u2018Flamingo\u2019) does not make the delivery of Western systems super\u00adfluous. This also applies to \u2018Taurus\u2019. The Ukrainians are no longer talking about it publicly, but the issue is not off the table.<\/p>\n

5<\/strong><\/p>\n

At present, Russia has a clear advantage in terms of recruitment potential, armament and arms production, partly due to support from Iran, North Korea, Belarus and China. However, as soon as Europe throws its full weight into the balance, the balance of power will shift. The economic basis of the Russian regime is already crumbling. All indicators point to stagflation, and the civilian economy is shrinking. Putin will not be able to sustain this war indef\u00adi\u00adnitely if oil export revenues decline and imports of critical technology via third countries are blocked.<\/p>\n

6<\/strong><\/p>\n

To date, there is no common European position on how this war should end. Without clear goals, there is no yardstick for measuring what means are necessary. This also includes clarity on the condi\u00adtions for a ceasefire:<\/p>\n