{"id":76852,"date":"2026-01-20T18:09:53","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T17:09:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=76852"},"modified":"2026-02-24T11:21:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T10:21:07","slug":"conference-russia-and-the-west-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/conference-russia-and-the-west-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Why there can be no return to business as usual with&nbsp;Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-76857 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20260120182425\/Kristi-R-Panel_1200x500.jpg\" alt width=\"1200\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20260120182425\/Kristi-R-Panel_1200x500.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20260120182425\/Kristi-R-Panel_1200x500-770x321.jpg 770w, https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20260120182425\/Kristi-R-Panel_1200x500-768x320.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<h3>Russia continues to pose a&nbsp;huge security challenge for Europe. Every year, the Center for Liberal Modernity invites leading experts to discuss the options for policy\u00admakers at its \u201cRussia and the West\u201d conference. Our programme director <em>Maria Sannikova\u2019s<\/em> analysis sums up the assess\u00adments of our last&nbsp;conference.<\/h3>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_message css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<div>The annual conference \u201cRussia and the West\u201d is the flagship event of the Center for Liberal Modernity\u2019s Russia Programme. For more infor\u00admation about the programme, <a href=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/network-russia\/\">click here<\/a>!<\/div>\n<div>For the German original text, <a href=\"https:\/\/russlandverstehen.eu\/de\/russland-und-der-westen-konferenz-2025-bericht\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here<\/a>.<\/div>\n<p>[\/vc_message][vc_gallery interval=\u201c3\u201d images=\u201c77252,77255,77257,77259\u201d img_size=\u201clarge\u201d css=\u201c\u201d][vc_message css=\u201c\u201d]Key Elements of a&nbsp;New Russia&nbsp;Strategy<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Signif\u00adi\u00adcantly strengthen short- and long-term military and economic support for Ukraine<\/strong>, so that it can continue to exist as a&nbsp;sovereign and democ\u00adratic state and Russia\u2019s war aims fail. Since the United States has suspended its financial aid to Ukraine, Europe must take on more respon\u00adsi\u00adbility and supply more and new weapons (such as Taurus missiles) to Ukraine. At the same time, continued US involvement is vital because Washington has capabil\u00adities that Europe currently does not&nbsp;have.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strengthen European defence and deter\u00adrence capabil\u00adities<\/strong> through the coordi\u00adnated expansion of its own indus\u00adtrial capac\u00adities, arms procurement within Europe and the US, and accel\u00aderated investment in the Ukrainian arms&nbsp;industry.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Increase pressure on Russia<\/strong> to change the dynamics of the conflict. Europe must not allow Russia to perma\u00adnently dictate the agenda and present the West with strategic dilemmas. In order to present the Kremlin itself with such dilemmas, the cost for it must rise. In addition to compre\u00adhensive support for Ukraine, this includes the consistent appli\u00adcation and expansion of sanctions, especially against the energy export revenues that fill Moscow\u2019s war chest, and decisive action against Russia\u2019s shadow&nbsp;fleet.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Make the aggressor pay <\/strong>and consis\u00adtently use frozen Russian assets as loans for&nbsp;Ukraine.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Invest in our own resilience<\/strong> and the devel\u00adopment of a&nbsp;compre\u00adhensive hybrid deter\u00adrence strategy to make Europe more resistant to Russian attempts at exerting&nbsp;influence.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Enhance Ukraine\u2019s role in future European defense and deter\u00adrence policy<\/strong>. Ukraine is not only a&nbsp;consumer of security but also a&nbsp;provider. Autonomous European defence and deter\u00adrence is incon\u00adceivable without Kyiv\u2019s involvement. Given Russia\u2019s threat to Europe, Ukraine\u2019s wartime experience is of central impor\u00adtance. If Europe wants to protect itself from Russia in the future, it must learn from and cooperate with Ukraine and integrate it polit\u00adi\u00adcally and militarily into Europe. NATO and the EU provide an insti\u00adtu\u00adtional framework for this, but differ\u00adences among member states may create hurdles. Because of this, so-called pioneer countries \u2014 in particular the Nordic and Baltic states, which advocate a&nbsp;decisive policy toward Ukraine, play a&nbsp;key role. These countries should take the lead and provide the momentum for other member states to&nbsp;follow.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strengthen Europe\u2019s political and economic engagement in its immediate and wider neigh\u00adborhood<\/strong> (Western Balkans, Moldova, Central Asia) in order to counter Russian&nbsp;influence.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Promote a&nbsp;deeper under\u00adstanding of the Russian regime<\/strong>, its policies, its strengths, and its potential weaknesses. Cooper\u00adation and networking among Russia experts should be strengthened in order to improve analysis of devel\u00adop\u00adments in Russia and its&nbsp;society.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Be proactive in the Russian infor\u00admation sphere <\/strong>in order to convey to the Russian public that the country will not win this war and has no future under the present&nbsp;regime.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Prepare for various political scenarios<\/strong> inside Russia and promote long-term political change, even if this is unlikely in the foreseeable future.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Such a&nbsp;consistent policy can enable Europeans to expand their power in such a&nbsp;way that they can talk to Putin directly and as equals about European security, while playing a&nbsp;key role in Ukraine. Europe has the necessary resources and options for action. What is missing is speed, deter\u00admi\u00adnation and unity.<\/em>[\/vc_message][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<h2>Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine: where do we&nbsp;stand?<\/h2>\n<p>The conference began with a&nbsp;strategic assessment of devel\u00adop\u00adments in Russia\u2019s war against&nbsp;Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>It is difficult to judge whether we are at the beginning, in the middle or approaching the end of the war. In any case, there can be no return to the status quo ante in relations with Russia. It is an illusion to believe that the war can be ended by a&nbsp;compre\u00adhensive peace agreement that paves the way for a&nbsp;new partnership with Russia. For Moscow, this war is not just about Ukraine, but about the entire European order \u2013 and this struggle may only just have&nbsp;begun.<\/p>\n<p>The situation on the battle\u00adfield is unsat\u00adis\u00adfactory for Russia. Even after three and a&nbsp;half years, it has not achieved its goals: the summer offensive of 2025 turned out to be more of an infor\u00admation offensive \u2013 Russian troops made little progress on the ground. There is greater momentum on both sides in the air war. Kyiv is increasing the cost for Moscow \u2013 for example, through air strikes on Russian fuel depots \u2013 while Russia is exploiting weaknesses in Ukrainian defence systems with mass-produced drones.<\/p>\n<p>The biggest mistake made by American and European supporters of Ukraine was to repeatedly allow Putin to overcome difficult situa\u00adtions by giving him time to regroup. This hesitancy stems from the lack of a&nbsp;common strategy towards Russia and a&nbsp;common vision of the desired outcome of the&nbsp;war.<\/p>\n<h2>The Economy \u2013 How long can Moscow continue to&nbsp;fight?<\/h2>\n<p>The second panel, held in cooper\u00adation with the London-based think tank <a href=\"https:\/\/nestcentre.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Eurasian Strategy Centre<\/a>, examined the state of the Russian economy, the regime\u2019s stability and the mood in Russian&nbsp;society.<\/p>\n<p>Following an initial brief period of turmoil caused by Western sanctions, the Russian economy has quickly developed resilience. The question of how sustainable this is and how long it will allow Putin to continue the war without resorting to more drastic political and economic measures \u2013 such as mobil\u00adi\u00adsation or the intro\u00adduction of a&nbsp;war economy \u2013 was a&nbsp;key focus of the discussion. Speakers pointed out that Moscow is making more and more key economic data&nbsp;secret.<\/p>\n<p>According to some partic\u00adi\u00adpants, the Russian economy has been in a&nbsp;kind of hangover mood for about a&nbsp;year following a&nbsp;boom driven by high military spending. It is still unclear how serious this actually is. Growth is slowing down; stagnation or even recession appear possible. Slowly, the economic situation is forcing the regime out of its comfort&nbsp;zone.<\/p>\n<p>Although there is almost full employment and rising wages are making people optimistic, the labour shortage is becoming an increas\u00adingly acute problem. In addition, a&nbsp;differ\u00aden\u00adti\u00adation is emerging in the labour market: war-related sectors are likely to continue to perform well, while incomes in other areas are likely to&nbsp;decline.<\/p>\n<p>The economic situation poses risks for the state budget. The deficit is already well above expec\u00adta\u00adtions. Revenues are falling \u2013 partly due to high military spending and lower revenues from oil and gas, which is not least attrib\u00adutable to economic sanctions. If the war continues with the same intensity, an even larger budget deficit can be expected in 2026; rising inflation will likely be unavoidable. At present, predom\u00adi\u00adnantly volun\u00adteers are being sent to the front, which is cost-intensive. The same applies to military spending. If the war continues or escalates, the economic situation could force the regime to switch to a&nbsp;war economy or to send conscripts to the&nbsp;front.<\/p>\n<p>Others countered that for Putin, the war \u2013 despite its high cost \u2013 remains relatively constrained \u2013 both in terms of troops and of money. The economic hangover in Russia began several years ago, long before the war. Currently oil and gas revenues are falling and techno\u00adlogical decline is advancing. However, the economy is expected to continue to grow by around one per cent in the coming years. According to this analysis, Russia\u2019s existing economic model allows the Kremlin to continue the war for another three to five years: despite the sanctions-induced techno\u00adlogical decline, Moscow can continue to produce weapons on a&nbsp;large scale \u2013 not high-tech, but suffi\u00adcient for its&nbsp;warfare.<\/p>\n<h2>Politics: Will Putin\u2019s successor be a \u2018collective Putin\u2019?<\/h2>\n<p>According to one analysis, the regime appears more stable and consol\u00adi\u00addated polit\u00adi\u00adcally than before the war. However, Putin\u2019s funda\u00admental problem is that his regime cannot reproduce itself: there is no new blood and much depends on his individual personnel&nbsp;decisions.<\/p>\n<p>This analysis assumed that the Putin system is currently preparing for a&nbsp;transition of power; however, Putin\u2019s \u2018successor\u2019 will not be a&nbsp;new person, but Putin himself \u2013 in the form of a&nbsp;new type of regime, the \u2018collective Putin\u2019. In this system, power remains concen\u00adtrated in Putin\u2019s hands, while routine admin\u00adis\u00adtration is&nbsp;delegated.<\/p>\n<p>The fact that this transition has already begun is evident from the increasing repression within the elites, which is also weakening the ruling clans. Putin has promoted his own aides and bodyguards to key positions. However, he does not expect them to be good managers, but rather to exercise political control over others. Power is thus increas\u00adingly concen\u00adtrated in the hands of a \u2018president <em>at large\u2019<\/em>, while the impor\u00adtance of parliament and government \u2013 already weak and dependent \u2013 continues to decline. This transfer of power is expected to be completed by the 2030 presi\u00addential&nbsp;election.<\/p>\n<p>However, two things could poten\u00adtially be dangerous for the Kremlin during this transition: Firstly, the centre may not be able to react quickly to unforeseen events \u2013 as demon\u00adstrated by the weak response to the uprising led by mercenary leader Prigozhin. Secondly, the growing repression of the elites could lead to the formation of an opposition within the ruling elite in the long term, even if there are currently no signs of&nbsp;this.<\/p>\n<h2>Society: How sustainable is support for&nbsp;Putin?<\/h2>\n<p>Socially, too, the regime appears to have reached a&nbsp;peak in its stability. However, there are signs that this could slowly erode in the&nbsp;future.<\/p>\n<p>On the one hand, there is discontent among the hardline militarists who actively supported the war. This group, which makes up 25 to 30 per cent of the population, is dissat\u00adisfied with the course of the war and, conse\u00adquently, with the regime, although they may support Putin as a&nbsp;national leader. In contrast to the largely demor\u00adalised opponents of the war, the hardliners are relatively vocal \u2013 and are therefore increas\u00adingly becoming the target of political&nbsp;repression.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, there are signs that the vast majority of Russians, who are conformists and passively support the war, may soon experience economic diffi\u00adculties because the potential for economic redis\u00adtri\u00adb\u00adution has been&nbsp;exhausted.<\/p>\n<p>Most people are still satisfied with the economic and social conse\u00adquences of the war: this includes not only soldiers and their families. The economic and social status of indus\u00adtrial workers and technical specialists, who were severely underpaid and under\u00advalued in the post-Soviet era, has also risen. What\u2019s more, many people are satisfied with the reduction in the diversity of lifestyles. A&nbsp;majority has decided against moderni\u00adsation and social progress, even if this means a&nbsp;certain decline in living&nbsp;standards.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, surveys show that expec\u00adta\u00adtions for an improvement in the social and economic situation remain high: this could be the beginning of a&nbsp;phase of declining support for the&nbsp;regime.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, a&nbsp;protracted war is the best option for Putin, as Russian society has changed over the past three years and the degree of consol\u00adi\u00addation is high. An end to the war could trigger unfavourable changes in social consciousness for him. Conse\u00adquently, Putin could change the format of the war, but he is unlikely to end&nbsp;it.<\/p>\n<h2>What strategy?<\/h2>\n<p>The confer\u00adence\u2019s closing session focused on key points of a&nbsp;new Russia&nbsp;strategy.<\/p>\n<p>The experts agreed that compre\u00adhensive economic and military support for Ukraine must be a&nbsp;central element of this strategy. It must be taken into account that the war of aggression against Ukraine is a&nbsp;symptom of a&nbsp;much larger problem that Russia repre\u00adsents today. Putin\u2019s primary goal is to re-organise the European continent and achieve a&nbsp;kind of \u2018Finlan\u00addi\u00ads\u00adation\u2019 of Europe. To this end, he is attempting to undermine Europe\u2019s credi\u00adbility and resolve, as well as NATO, in particular the alliance commitment laid down in Article&nbsp;5.<\/p>\n<p>The challenge posed by a&nbsp;revan\u00adchist and neo-imperial Russia will continue after the end of the war against Ukraine, but the manner in which the war ends and the role Europe plays in it will have a&nbsp;signif\u00adicant impact on the future of Ukraine, Russia itself and&nbsp;Europe.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine must survive this war as a&nbsp;sovereign and democ\u00adratic state, decide indepen\u00addently on its domestic and foreign policy, and be integrated polit\u00adi\u00adcally and militarily into the West. Achieving this will demand a&nbsp;great deal from Europe, but the costs of failure would be incom\u00adpa\u00adrably&nbsp;higher.<\/p>\n<p>A defeat for Ukraine would have fatal conse\u00adquences \u2013 not only for Ukraine itself. Russia would be encouraged to continue arming itself and provoking others. If the Kremlin were to emerge victo\u00adrious, this would reinforce the imperial tendencies in the country. The regime would see this as confir\u00admation that its war of aggression is paying off and that the West is weak. Then Ukraine would not remain the only target of further&nbsp;aggression.<\/p>\n<p>The question of when individual NATO member states are militarily threatened leads many to assume that Europe still has time. However, this fails to recognise that military force is only one of several means available to the Kremlin to achieve a&nbsp;new order in Europe. If Putin believes he can achieve this goal more quickly through hybrid warfare, he will use it consis\u00adtently. We are already seeing how cyber\u00adat\u00adtacks, sabotage and disin\u00adfor\u00admation are increas\u00adingly becoming part of everyday life for people in&nbsp;Europe.<\/p>\n<p>Europe will have to deal with the challenge posed by Russia for many years, if not decades \u2013 as long as the country does not undergo funda\u00admental systemic change and abandons its neo-imperi\u00adalist policies and author\u00adi\u00adtarian tradi\u00adtions. Until then, the problem cannot be solved, it can only be&nbsp;managed.<\/p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, the lessons learned from the Cold War are instructive, despite historical differ\u00adences. The policy of containment towards the Soviet Union was remarkably effective without placing an excessive burden on the resources of the democ\u00adratic states. The Soviet Union was contained until it finally collapsed without any nuclear escalation. Under the circum\u00adstances, a&nbsp;kind of new Cold War could be the best possible scenario for Europe. This would require a&nbsp;policy of containment and deter\u00adrence that does not abandon the option of political change in Russia in the long&nbsp;term.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-23921 size-full ls-is-cached lazyloaded\" src=\"http:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905145906\/textende.png\" alt=\"Textende\" width=\"40\" height=\"120\" data-src=\"http:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905145906\/textende.png\" data-eio-rwidth=\"40\" data-eio-rheight=\"120\">[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]Hat Ihnen dieser Artikel gefallen? 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Every year, the Center for Liberal Modernity invites leading experts to discuss the options for policy\u00admakers at its \u201cRussia and the West\u201d conference. Our programme director Maria Sannikova\u2019s analysis sums up the assess\u00adments of our last&nbsp;conference.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":76855,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1894,2809,14789],"tags":[15335,2987,14967,2879,15116],"class_list":["post-76852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-uncategorized","category-analysis","category-event","tag-conference-russia-and-the-west","tag-current","tag-expert-network-russia","tag-russia","tag-russia-and-the-west"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.0 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why there can be no return to business as usual with Russia - libmod.de - 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