{"id":77465,"date":"2026-02-25T12:42:41","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T11:42:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=77465"},"modified":"2026-02-26T21:53:31","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T20:53:31","slug":"msc-side-event-russia-china-nest-centre-eggert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/msc-side-event-russia-china-nest-centre-eggert\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia and China: Not brothers in arms but partners by necessity"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d][\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n

Russia could hardly carry out its war against Ukraine without China\u2019s techno\u00adlogical and economic support, which allows Moscow to bypass Western sanctions. We discussed the impli\u00adca\u00adtions for Western policy\u00admakers at a joint event with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST) held at the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Konstantin Eggert<\/em> reports.<\/h3>\n

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Photos: NEST Centre<\/em><\/p>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]European leaders spent 2025 hastily arranging visits to Beijing to talk to President Xi Jinping. Compared to Donald Trump, the Chinese strongman suddenly looked more reasonable and balanced to them. This is a mistake, Janka Oertel of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told an audience of experts and journalists in Munich during an event organised jointly by the Berlin-based Center of Liberal Modernity and the London-based New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST) on the sidelines of the annual Munich Security Conference.<\/p>\n

In Oertel\u2019s view, China\u2019s long-term policy vis-\u00e0-vis Europe is and will remain hostile. The regime in Beijing does not like European liberal values and sees the Europeans as potential global competitors. If there is any country that Beijing sees eye to eye with, it is Vladimir Putin\u2019s Russia. Shunned and sanctioned by the West after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, strapped for money to continue waging the war, it has only one reliable partner \u2013 China. Or does it?<\/p>\n

This question and others are tackled in the NEST report \u201cMarriage Without Love: The China-Russia Partnership and What It Means for the World<\/a>\u201d, which was presented in Munich by two of its authors \u2013 Australian scholar Bobo Lo and the US-based Russian economist Sergei Aleksashenko.<\/p>\n

The report tries to dispel the popular notion of the Moscow-Beijing alliance as a chiefly ideolog\u00adi\u00adcally motivated anti-Western block. The authors see key differ\u00adences in Russia\u2019s and China\u2019s approaches to global affairs: Xi\u2019s regime seeks to establish a bipolar world dominated by China and the United States, in which China maintains its leading position in the global economy. Putin, meanwhile, seeks a world in which Russia plays the role of the number two super\u00adpower and, from the Kremlin\u2019s perspective, has de facto<\/em> veto power on matters affecting its national interests \u2013 as formu\u00adlated by the regime in Moscow. \u201cIt is true that neither Putin nor Xi are fans of liberal democracy, said Bobo Lo. But in the long term, the two countries have different strategic goals.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both countries are cooper\u00adating, mostly, as the report\u2019s authors point out, because their economic systems complement each other. \u201cRussia has raw materials, while China has an indus\u00adtrial base that requires them, especially oil\u201d, noted Sergei Aleksashenko. However, in his opinion, this cooper\u00adation has almost reached its peak and is unlikely to expand signif\u00adi\u00adcantly. It is also too dependent on fluctu\u00ada\u00adtions in global hydro\u00adcarbon prices.<\/p>\n

Why China does not invest much in Russia<\/h2>\n

Aleksashenko, who was a deputy head of Russia\u2019s Central bank in the late 1990s, pointed to another contra\u00addiction in the Russia-China relationship: despite Moscow\u2019s wishes and loud joint state\u00adments about strategic partnership, Chinese investment in Russian industry remains low. \u201cBeijing doesn\u2019t see the value in investing in the devel\u00adopment of a potential competitor\u201d, he explained. Although China still needs some Russian technologies, primarily for its aerospace industry, this depen\u00addence is signif\u00adi\u00adcantly dimin\u00adished, compared even to 10 \u2013 15 years ago.<\/p>\n

Oertel is convinced that one thing should be important to Europeans (and Americans): today\u2019s China-Russia partnership is real and directly impacts the course of Russian aggression against Ukraine. \u201cThe reasons and prospects for this partnership are not so important now,\u201d Oertel said. Moreover, \u201cany attempts by the Europeans to convince Beijing that helping Moscow is not in its interests, are simply naive.\u201d A rejection of Western democracy, while not being the primary reason, is still an important political reason for the two regimes\u2019 cooper\u00adation, she believes. Oertel insisted that instead of vying for Xi\u2019s favours, Europeans could \u201cpunish\u201d China for its assis\u00adtance to Putin by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods in a number of sectors.<\/p>\n

This is unlikely to happen. However, the idea of \u200b\u200bexpanding contacts with the Global South as a counter\u00adweight to China and Russia was repeatedly voiced during this year\u2019s Munich conference. Even Trump\u2019s opponents have noted that if his agree\u00adments with India to reduce purchases of Russian oil bear fruit, this will become a signif\u00adicant factor in exerting pressure on the Russian regime.<\/p>\n

Blundering Europe is begging Beijing for attention<\/h2>\n

LibMod-founder Ralf F\u00fccks said that Europe\u2019s ability to influence both Russia and China would have been much stronger had it focused attention on devel\u00adoping its capacity in three sectors \u2013 IT, AI and aerospace. \u201cWe lack dynamism and innovation\u201d, said F\u00fccks and added that as a result, Europeans are reduced to \u201cbegging Beijing for attention against the backdrop of Trump\u2019s policies\u201d despite the fact that Europe now provides the bulk of economic and military aid to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Why Beijing wants Russia neither to win nor to lose<\/h2>\n

Asked which outcome of the war with Ukraine Beijing wants for Russia, Bobo Lo replied that China wants Moscow to neither win or lose: A Russian defeat could lead to the arrival in the Kremlin of a leadership willing to make signif\u00adicant conces\u00adsions to the West, while a Russian victory could signif\u00adi\u00adcantly reduce Russia\u2019s depen\u00addence on China, which has developed over the years, and changed the political relationship between them.<\/p>\n

However, Lo added, \u201cif you have more than 4,000 kilometers of common border, as the two countries do, then some kind of cooper\u00adation is inevitable \u2013 no matter what regimes may eventually come to power in both capitals.\u201d[\/vc_column_text][vc_message css=\u201c\u201d]The NEST Centre was founded by former Russian political prisoner Mikhail Khodor\u00adkovsky, who also attended the event. To download the study, click here!<\/a><\/p>\n

Konstantin Eggert<\/em> is a Russian journalist and political analyst who is based in Vilnius. He contributed this report for the Center for Liberal Modernity.[\/vc_message][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]\"Textende\"[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]Hat Ihnen dieser Artikel gefallen? Wenn ja, k\u00f6nnen Sie die unabh\u00e4ngige redak\u00adtionelle Arbeit und den Journal\u00adismus von LibMod \u00fcber ein einfaches Spendentool unterst\u00fctzen.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]