{"id":78648,"date":"2026-05-21T10:17:02","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T08:17:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/?p=78648"},"modified":"2026-06-25T12:37:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T10:37:09","slug":"russia-china-roundtable-berlin-nest-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/russia-china-roundtable-berlin-nest-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Unequal friends: The deepening Sino-Russian partnership \u2013 impli\u00adca\u00adtions and limitations"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-78656 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20260521105303\/A7400501_1200x500.jpg\" alt width=\"1200\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20260521105303\/A7400501_1200x500.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20260521105303\/A7400501_1200x500-770x321.jpg 770w, https:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20260521105303\/A7400501_1200x500-768x320.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508251598805{margin-top: 30px !important;}\u201d][vc_column width=\u201c2\/3\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1508252250311{padding-right: 20px !important;}\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<h3>At a&nbsp;recent expert round\u00adtable held in Berlin with our partners from the New Eurasian Strategy Center, we discussed the deepening ties between Russia and China, their asymmetric nature and Moscow\u2019s increas\u00adingly subor\u00addinate position. Our Russia Programme Director Maria Sannikova-Franck summa\u00adrizes the key&nbsp;findings.<\/h3>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_gallery interval=\u201c3\u201d images=\u201c78658,78662,78664,78666,78668\u201d img_size=\u201cfull\u201d css=\u201c\u201d][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Photos: Tobias Kunz,&nbsp;Libmod<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_message css=\u201c\u201d]The event, prompted by the recent NEST report <a href=\"https:\/\/nestcentre.org\/marriage-without-love\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Marriage Without Love: The Sino-Russian partnership and what it means for the world,<\/em><\/a> was attended by more than 30 experts from think tanks, academia, journalism and the diplo\u00admatic community. Because the discussion was held under <em>Chatham House Rules<\/em>, quotes are not&nbsp;assigned.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Read <a href=\"https:\/\/libmod.de\/russland-china-expertendiskussion-berlin-nest-2026\/\">this report in German here<\/a>!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_message][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]The first part of the discussion focused on the character, trajectory and limita\u00adtions of Sino-Russian relations. The experts agreed that the partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strong, resilient and currently inten\u00adsi\u00adfying in many sectors. Both countries share the goal of challenging the Western-dominated liberal inter\u00adna\u00adtional&nbsp;order.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, the relationship is deeply asymmet\u00adrical with Russia increas\u00adingly in subor\u00addinate position. China and Russia, united in their ant-western position, do not share a&nbsp;common ideology nor a&nbsp;common vision of the inter\u00adna\u00adtional order in the 21st century. Moreover, their bilateral relations have been shaped by mutual mistrust rooted in historical trauma and cultural distance. This factor remains relevant at least in the medium term, despite the current close alignment between Moscow and Beijing.[\/vc_column_text]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/04kfE6YtyOk?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]Because of this, the relationship is a&nbsp;flexible strategic partnership driven by self-interest and realpolitik. Both sides under\u00adstand the benefits they derive and are aware that they would be signif\u00adi\u00adcantly worse off without each other. Yet the partnership also has limita\u00adtions and potential areas of&nbsp;tension.\n<h2>Beijing as a&nbsp;source of comfort for the&nbsp;Kremlin<\/h2>\n<p>For Moscow, the relationship with Beijing is a&nbsp;source of geopo\u00adlitical comfort and a&nbsp;force multi\u00adplier for Russian influence around the world. Without China, Russia and Putin\u2019s regime would be consid\u00aderably weaker. Since February 2022 and the imposition of Western economic sanctions, however, China has become indis\u00adpensable for the Russian economy, providing markets, technology, financial channels and dual use goods that enable the current Russian war effort. There is also much to suggest that China\u2019s support for Russia\u2019s war effort has its limits. Beijing certainly does not want the Kremlin to lose. The question, however, is how much they want Russia to win.[\/vc_column_text]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1Q7wzA1bnec?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]For China, Russia provides a&nbsp;secure strategic rear along their 4,200-kilometre border. This is important in itself, but also because it allows Beijing to focus on more pressing prior\u00adities, above all its relationship with the United States. In the broader strategic rivalry with Washington, Russia serves as a&nbsp;useful geopo\u00adlitical partner. At the same time, Moscow\u2019s acqui\u00ades\u00adcence to Beijing\u2019s ambitions in Northeast and Central Asia, in the Arctic or in global gover\u00adnance is just as important as active cooperation.[\/vc_column_text]<div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MvNnr5AMg0I?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]The widening power gap between China and Russia raises an increas\u00adingly important question for the Kremlin: where should the geopo\u00adlitical and geo-economic red lines of the relationship be&nbsp;drawn?\n<p>Partic\u00adi\u00adpants stressed that despite their growth, Sino-Russian economic ties have become one-sided and disad\u00advan\u00adta\u00adgeous for Moscow: While China exports manufac\u00adtured goods, Russia provides mainly raw&nbsp;materials.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing has taken advantage of Russian weakness in recent years by purchasing oil and gas at discounted prices, expanding Chinese manufac\u00adturing exports and strength\u00adening its position in key sectors of the Russian economy. Moreover, many previ\u00adously promising and future-oriented forms of techno\u00adlogical and indus\u00adtrial cooper\u00adation have stagnated or disap\u00adpeared altogether since the invasion of Ukraine. China maintains a&nbsp;certain distance because the Russian economy has become toxic due to sanctions and Beijing does not like compe\u00adtition from Moscow in indus\u00adtrial manufacturing.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, the experts argued that China can exploit Russia\u2019s depen\u00addency only so much. If it pushes Putin too far into a&nbsp;corner, this could create insta\u00adbility inside Russia and poten\u00adtially threaten the survival of the Kremlin regime \u2014 a&nbsp;scenario China wants to&nbsp;avoid.<\/p>\n<h2>China sees its future in renew\u00adables, Russia remains dependent on&nbsp;fossils<\/h2>\n<p>Although the energy partnership remains a&nbsp;crucial pillar of bilateral relations and may deepen further in the short term \u2013 not least because of insta\u00adbility in the Middle East \u2013 the experts argued that its long-term impor\u00adtance is likely to decline. China sees its geo-economic future in renewable energy and techno\u00adlogical dominance. Its transition towards a&nbsp;technology-driven, post-carbon economy contrasts sharply with Russia\u2019s growing depen\u00addence on fossil fuels, military production and raw material exports. In the long run, China\u2019s economic trans\u00adfor\u00admation could therefore pose an existential challenge to Russia\u2019s position and influence in the inter\u00adna\u00adtional&nbsp;system.<\/p>\n<p>Another major factor shaping the relationship is the difference between Chinese and Russian visions of global order. Although both countries seek to challenge US primacy and advocate a \u201cmulti\u00adpolar world order,\u201d the concept of multi\u00adpo\u00adlarity means very different things in Moscow and Beijing. The Russian under\u00adstanding resembles a&nbsp;kind of \u201cYalta 2.0\u201d based on spheres of influence and bargaining between US, China and&nbsp;Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Xi Jinping appears more receptive to a&nbsp;G2 scenario, because that places China and the United States on the same level. One speaker described China as a \u201crevisionist but not revolu\u00adtionary power\u201d, which promotes itself as a&nbsp;defender of global\u00adi\u00adsation and multi\u00adlat\u00ader\u00adalism, but uses its economic power and influence to conse\u00adquently undermine liberal values and to fill the vacuum in global gover\u00adnance. Beijing seeks to reshape the inter\u00adna\u00adtional system on the expense of the US and Europe, working within it. And it advocates a&nbsp;regulated inter\u00adna\u00adtional order, which it perceives as a&nbsp;condition for realising the Chinese dream of national&nbsp;renewal.<\/p>\n<p>Russia, by contrast, was portrayed as a&nbsp;power that seeks to tear down the system, as it benefits from geopo\u00adlitical insta\u00adbility and thrives in situa\u00adtions of crisis and&nbsp;disruption.<\/p>\n<p>Although these differ\u00adences could, in the long run, pose a&nbsp;challenge to the partnership, partic\u00adi\u00adpants argued that the China-Russia relationship will remain stable in the medium term. That is why experts have dismissed the idea of a \u2018reverse Kissinger\u2019 or \u2018reverse Nixon\u2019 as delusional \u2013 whereby Washington attempts to improve relations with Russia in order to drive a&nbsp;wedge between Moscow and Beijing. Neither Russia nor China can afford to allow their partnership to unravel, when the alter\u00adna\u00adtives currently offer them so&nbsp;little.<\/p>\n<h2>\u201cChina is under\u00adcutting the very essence of European&nbsp;power\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>The second part of the discussion focused on the challenges posed by China to Europe, first and foremost to Germany.[\/vc_column_text]<\/p><div class=\"gem-youtube gem-wrapbox gem-wrapbox-style-no-style rounded-corners gem-wrapbox-position-below\" style=\"width: 100%;\"><div class=\"gem-wrapbox-inner gem-ratio-style\" style=\"padding-top: 56.25%\"><iframe class=\"gem-wrapbox-element img-responsive\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ug5ZMkUki8A?rel=0&amp;wmode=opaque\"><\/iframe><\/div><\/div>[vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css=\u201c\u201d]The main assessment of the threat emanating from Beijing\u2019s economic policies was drastic: China is under\u00adcutting the very essence of European power, which mainly rests in its huge economic potential. The bloc\u2019s GDP in nominal terms is still bigger than China\u2019s (23 v&nbsp;20.8 trillion dollars expected for 2026, according to the IMF). But Beijing has more confi\u00addence, ambition and willingness to take risk. A&nbsp;stark example of this are the restric\u00adtions Beijing imposed on rare earth exports in 2025, which hit the EU hard. Europe is already suffering deindus\u00adtri\u00adal\u00adization, with Germany alone losing an estimated 10,000 industry jobs&nbsp;monthly.\n<p>Add to this China\u2019s role as the major enabler for Russia\u2019s war of aggression against Ukraine. The brutal war was described by a&nbsp;partic\u00adipant as \u201cincredibly conve\u00adnient\u201d for Beijing, because China \u201cspends nothing, gains a&nbsp;lot and is happy that its biggest adver\u00adsaries are burning money every day on military support for Ukraine\u201d, something that does not generate revenue nor&nbsp;wealth.<\/p>\n<p>Europe\u2019s answer has so far been twofold \u2013 diplo\u00admatic hard talk and economic sanctions. The first measure rests on the assumption that reputa\u00adtional risks matter to Chinese officials, who like to portrait their country as neutral and as a&nbsp;power inter\u00adested in reaching a&nbsp;productive solution. The second was imple\u00admented with the 20th EU sanctions package against Russia in April, which for the first time targets \u2060third-country suppliers of dual-use goods or weapons systems to Russia, including banks and companies from China. \u201cOur thinking is that China\u2019s support for Russia\u2019s war is immensely detri\u00admental to our interests,\u201d a&nbsp;policy\u00admaker&nbsp;said.<\/p>\n<p>But this might be far from enough. Some argue that Chinese officials really have no problem with reputa\u00adtional risks, when it comes to their relationship with Russia \u201cbecause they don\u2019t think (the Europeans) matter\u201d. In fact, China has not really paid a&nbsp;price for its support for Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine. Others, however, challenged the notion that Beijing does not care about its reputation. As one partic\u00adipant put it \u201cthey are not nice and sweet, but they are less aggressive than few years&nbsp;ago\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The ensuing debate on sanctions centered on possible costs on the Chinese aviation industry to be imposed via software restric\u00adtions for Airbus planes \u2013 however the issue is compli\u00adcated by compe\u00adtition from US giant Boeing and mounting uncer\u00adtainty about Washington\u2019s stance on the&nbsp;issue.<\/p>\n<p>Criticism was also heaped at the EU trade policy versus China, which turned the bloc into a&nbsp;supplier of \u201chighly replaceable\u201d agricul\u00adtural and commodity goods like barley, potatoes and even chicken feet, while the Chinese \u201ctake on all the indus\u00adtrial&nbsp;sides\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2>Europe must challenge China as a&nbsp;bloc<\/h2>\n<p>The discussion ended with the firm conclusion that Europe can only challenge China as a&nbsp;bloc and not on national levels. It should aim for a&nbsp;mitigation scenario, in which the EU acts fast (within 6&nbsp;to 12 months) to protect its indus\u00adtries from the Chinese onslaught, while it keeps supporting Ukraine in its war with&nbsp;Russia.<\/p>\n<p>If this fails, think tankers warn of a&nbsp;scenario (called \u201cadaptation\u201d), in which a&nbsp;Chinese-led global order leads to the EU\u2019s fragmen\u00adtation and to a&nbsp;greater role for&nbsp;Russia.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Nikolaus von Twickel contributed to this&nbsp;report<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-23921 size-full ls-is-cached lazyloaded\" src=\"http:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905145906\/textende.png\" alt=\"Textende\" width=\"40\" height=\"120\" data-src=\"http:\/\/libmodredaktion.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/20240905145906\/textende.png\" data-eio-rwidth=\"40\" data-eio-rheight=\"120\">[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u201c\u201d]Hat Ihnen dieser Artikel gefallen? 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Our Russia Programme Director Maria Sannikova-Franck summa\u00adrizes the key&nbsp;findings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":78652,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[2809,14789],"tags":[14892,2987,11704,14967,2879,15116],"class_list":["post-78648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analysis","category-event","tag-china-en","tag-current","tag-europes-east","tag-expert-network-russia","tag-russia","tag-russia-and-the-west"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Unequal friends: The deepening Sino-Russian partnership \u2013 implications and limitations - libmod.de - Zentrum Liberale Moderne<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"At a recent expert roundtable held in Berlin with our partners from the New Eurasian Strategy Center, we discussed the deepening ties between Russia and China. 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