{"id":79969,"date":"2026-09-03T14:13:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T12:13:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/keeping-yerevan-in-moscows-orbit-russias-fimi-playbook-in-armenia\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T15:11:32","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T13:11:32","slug":"keeping-yerevan-in-moscows-orbit-russias-fimi-playbook-in-armenia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/libmod.de\/en\/keeping-yerevan-in-moscows-orbit-russias-fimi-playbook-in-armenia\/","title":{"rendered":"Keeping Yerevan in Moscow\u2019s Orbit: Russia\u2019s FIMI Playbook in Armenia"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Armenia is seeking to reduce its foreign and security policy depen\u00addence on Russia while expanding its ties with the EU and other Western partners. Moscow is responding with political and economic pressure as well as targeted influence opera\u00adtions. The analysis shows how Russia exploits existing fears, conflicts and depen\u00addencies to discredit Armenia\u2019s Western orien\u00adtation and preserve its influence over the country.<\/h3>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css_animation=\u201cnone\u201d]Russia\u2019s influence over Armenia is coming under increasing pressure: security ties have deteri\u00ado\u00adrated signif\u00adi\u00adcantly, while Yerevan is expanding its relations with the European Union and other Western partners. At the same time, Moscow retains consid\u00aderable leverage \u2013 ranging from economic and energy depen\u00addencies and its military presence to an extensive network of political, media and societal actors.<\/p>\n

Russian influence opera\u00adtions delib\u00ader\u00adately exploit existing insecu\u00adrities and social fault lines. Peace with Azerbaijan and normal\u00adization with Turkey are portrayed as betrayal and as leading to the \u201cTurki\u00adfi\u00adcation\u201d of Armenia, while Russia presents itself as the country\u2019s indis\u00adpensable security guarantor and economic partner. The aim is to undermine trust in state insti\u00adtu\u00adtions, deepen political polar\u00adization and constrain the Armenian government\u2019s room for manoeuvre. The analysis also identifies concrete ways to strengthen resilience: tighter rules against covert foreign financing and electoral inter\u00adference, closer intel\u00adli\u00adgence and infor\u00admation-sharing, stronger cyber\u00adse\u00adcurity, and European support to reduce Armenia\u2019s economic, energy and security depen\u00addencies on Russia.<\/p>\n

This country paper is part of a series of five case studies published under the title <\/i>\u201cRussian Playbook: Foreign Infor\u00admation Manip\u00adu\u00adlation and Inter\u00adference (FIMI) in Armenia, Georgia, Germany, Moldova, and Ukraine.\u201d<\/i><\/b> The publi\u00adca\u00adtions are part of LibMod\u2019s Eastern Partnership Plus Programme, funded by the German Federal Foreign Office.<\/i>[\/\u200bvc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext]<\/p>

Download Policy Paper as PDF<\/a><\/div> [vc_\u200bcolumn_\u200btext css_animation=\u201cnone\u201d]\n

I. Country context and strategic relevance<\/h2>\n

Armenia is the only country in the South Caucasus that is a formal member of Russia-led proxy organi\u00adza\u00adtions both in the military-political sphere (the Collective Security Treaty Organi\u00adzation, CSTO) and in the economic sphere (the Eurasian Economic Union, EAEU), organ\u00adi\u00adsa\u00adtions which serve as instru\u00adments for preserving Russia\u2019s geopo\u00adlitical dominance across the post-Soviet space. Armenia suspended its partic\u00adi\u00adpation in the CSTO following Azerbai\u00adjan\u2019s attacks on Armenia\u2019s sovereign territory in September 2022. Armenia is also the only country in the region in which Russia continues to maintain a legal military presence. This presence includes the 102nd Military Base, consisting of the main garrison in Gyumri, the Kanaker garrison (Yerevan), and the 3624th Air Base at Erebuni Airport (Yerevan). In addition, under a 1992 agreement, Russian border guards are respon\u00adsible for protecting Armenia\u2019s borders with Iran (45 km) and Turkey (327 km). The withdrawal of these forces would mean the end of Russia\u2019s physical military presence throughout the South Caucasus, excluding the occupied terri\u00adtories of Georgia.<\/p>\n

Current Armenian\u2013Russian relations are charac\u00adterized by the weakening of what have tradi\u00adtionally been close ties and growing diplo\u00admatic and economic tensions. Russia is no longer Armenia\u2019s primary supplier of military equipment (it accounted for 94% of Armenia\u2019s arms imports in 2020 but less than 7% by 2026)\u2024[1]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

Russia began imposing bans on imports of various Armenian agricul\u00adtural products, as well as certain alcoholic beverages, mineral water, and other goods ahead of Armenia\u2019s June 2026 parlia\u00admentary elections and has continued to introduce new restric\u00adtions since the election. Simul\u00adta\u00adne\u00adously, Moscow increased its diplo\u00admatic pressure on Yerevan, demanding that it \u201cchoose between the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union\u201d.<\/p>\n

Exploited vulner\u00ada\u00adbil\u00adities:<\/h3>\n
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  1. The unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan and the closed border with Turkey, including issues relating to:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n