Germany has a crucial role to play!
Russia’s war is expanding. In Ukraine, missiles and drones are claiming an ever-growing number of civilian lives, while acts of sabotage and drone incidents are increasing at an alarming rate in Germany and across Europe. What can and should we do to stop Putin’s regime? We discussed this question with members of the German Bundestag and experts at our panel discussion, “Russia and the West”. Among the participants was prominent Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
A recurring theme throughout the evening was Germany’s role as a leading power in Europe, particularly as the United States under Donald Trump retreats from its traditional leadership role. Trump’s recent diesel deal with Vladimir Putin has caused considerable consternation. “Germany is the engine of Europe,” declared Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Representatives of Germany’s governing coalition sought to demonstrate that they were prepared to live up to this responsibility.
Nils Schmid, an SPD foreign policy expert who currently serves as Parliamentary State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Defence, stressed not only that military support for Ukraine must continue, but also that efforts should be made to bring the Trump administration back on course: “We are trying through every available channel to make it clear to the United States that supporting Ukraine is also in America’s interest.”
Germany Is Ukraine’s Strongest Supporter – and Will Remain So
Jürgen Hardt, foreign policy spokesperson for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, made a similar argument. During the Greenland crisis, for example, Europeans had demonstrated that, when it really mattered, they could take Trump’s proposals “off the table”. The CDU politician emphasised Berlin’s unwavering commitment to Kyiv: “Germany is Ukraine’s strongest supporter and will remain Ukraine’s strongest supporter.”
Hardt also stressed that Ukraine must win the war and regain control over its entire territory. “That would be a defeat for Putin, but not for Russia,” he explained, since Russia would not be deprived of anything that had belonged to it before the invasion. “Russia can end this war without losing anything it did not have before,” he said.
Bringing Putin to His Senses
The most promising way to achieve this, Hardt argued, was to make Putin understand that he could not win. The goal was to “bring him to his senses”. Hardt also pledged that the German government would take more decisive action against Russia’s shadow fleet in the future.
This was music to the ears of Deborah Düring, foreign policy spokesperson for the Green parliamentary group in the Bundestag. “I’m looking forward to that,” she said. At the same time, she warned of the consequences of further hesitation, given Germany’s growing responsibility: “If Germany does not continue to push forward decisively and bring Europe along with it, we have a problem.”
She added: “If we really want Putin to know that we stand unconditionally with Ukraine, we must act much faster.” Germany, she argued, could do “a great deal more”, both militarily and in the civilian sphere.
At the same time, Düring stressed the importance of maintaining public support for a resolute policy on Ukraine, especially now, as voices questioning it grow louder. We must never tire of explaining that what is ultimately at stake is Europe’s security — our own security. Moderator Ralf Fücks asked Mikhail Khodorkovsky where Europe could identify vulnerabilities that would allow it to significantly weaken Russia’s ability to wage war. The former oil businessman, who spent ten years in a penal colony after supporting Russia’s democratic opposition, identified several possibilities.
First, sanctions should be strengthened and enforced more effectively. Germany, for example, could use its good relations with Beijing to persuade China to reduce technology exports to Russia, which are helping Moscow circumvent sanctions. Russian engineers and other skilled professionals could also be attracted to well-paid jobs in Germany and elsewhere. Given Russia’s acute shortage of skilled workers, this could significantly weaken the country, Khodorkovsky argued.
Second, Europe needed to substantially increase its military commitment. According to Khodorkovsky, Russia spends $250 billion a year on the war. “To believe that $40 to $60 billion from Europe is enough to stand up to Putin is naive,” he said.
Asked whether Putin could be “brought to his senses” at all, Khodorkovsky acknowledged that it was conceivable he might stop the war if the political costs of continuing became greater than those of ending it. At present, however, he considered this highly unlikely. The Kremlin leader was pinning his hopes on electoral victories by Germany’s AfD and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France, both of which have promised to end support for Ukraine.
“Putin is still looking at Europe and saying: If Germany and France decide to stop supporting Ukraine, the front will collapse. And so he says: In that case, I’ll simply carry on.”
Düring and Hardt did not entirely agree on this point. While the Green politician expressed concern that calls to end support for Ukraine had recently been growing louder “not only on the fringes of the Bundestag, but also in its political centre”, Hardt expressed confidence that the governing coalition would “manage to hold things together”.
As Long as Putin Remains in Power, There Can Be No Peace
Khodorkovsky, meanwhile, was convinced that there could be no genuine peace as long as Putin was alive and in power – two conditions he regarded as inseparable. “For Putin, the war has become a means of political survival,” he argued.
Giving up the occupied Ukrainian territories would mean the end of Putin’s regime. According to Khodorkovsky, this could only happen following a Russian military defeat, which he currently considered virtually impossible.
Call for a Resolution Rejecting the Recognition of Annexation
This qualification found little support among participants in the second panel. Experts from France, Sweden, Poland and Lithuania agreed that Russian occupation and annexation must never be recognised.
Lithuanian MP Žygimantas Pavilionis called on the German and French parliaments to adopt resolutions similar to one passed in Lithuania, categorically ruling out any recognition of Russian annexations. “Those who recognise an occupation may quickly become the next victims,” he warned.
Pavilionis urged Germany to take more decisive action against Russian influence within its own borders and to align its Russia and Ukraine policies more closely with those of the Baltic and Nordic countries, which he described as the “Club of the Brave”.
America Is Not Lost
Like the German speakers before him, Pavilionis argued that Europe should not give up on the United States. Instead, he called for more effective European engagement in Washington. “We can do this – America is not lost!” he declared.
At the suggestion of moderator Maria Sannikova-Franck, Director of LibMod’s Russia Programme, the second panel also discussed concrete ways of influencing developments within Russia.
French political scientist Marie Mendras offered several proposals: greater support for independent Russian media, including those operating in exile, and for organisations and activists helping deserters leave the country; increased assistance for the Russian democratic opposition (“resistance”) in exile; and more active communication with elites inside Russia through secure channels.
Ultimately, however, all the speakers emphasised that a Ukrainian victory remained the overriding priority.
“This fight is also our fight,” declared Polish expert Agnieszka Legucka, who also serves as Deputy Director of the Strategy Department at Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Referring to recent political tensions between Kyiv and Warsaw, she stressed that Poland must do everything possible to counter “false narratives” at home that threatened to undermine public support for its policy towards Ukraine.
All Europeans Must Show Greater Confidence and Courage
Finally, Swedish former diplomat and think-tank expert Fredrik Löjdquist appealed to Germany and Europe to take greater responsibility.
Germany’s Zeitenwende – the historic turning point in its security and foreign policy – remained an unfinished project, particularly at the European level, where many countries were still looking to Germany for leadership.
“We must not forget the fundamental values we are defending: All Europeans must show greater confidence and courage,” he urged in his closing remarks.
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