Recent trends show that we will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C by the early 2030s, even if efforts to rapidly reduce emissions increase. In climate science, there is increasing discussion of “overshoot” – exceeding 1.5°C and then returning to it by the end of the century. Our factsheet by Andy Reisinger explains what the temporary temper­ature overshoot means for (ir)reversible conse­quences, what is needed to get back to 1.5°C and what needs to be done now to achieve this.

Beijing and Moscow are linked by a strategic partnership and a common adversary, “the West”. Senior Diplomat Johannes Regen­brecht analyzes for us what this alliance is about, what interests Xi Jinping is pursuing in Putin’s large-scale war against Ukraine and what challenges the Russian-Chinese alliance faces from an erratic president in the White House. The US and the European Union must be aware that restric­tions on Ukraine’s sover­eignty will set a signif­icant precedent not only for Europe, but also for the Indo-Pacific region. 

After the scandal in the Oval Office on February 28, it has been clear that Europe must take its own security into its own hands. The split in transat­lantic relations is becoming increas­ingly clear. For Europe, this is now the moment of truth. The outcome of the war in Ukraine will have a decisive influence on the future of our continent. These messages also shaped the LibMod conference “Ukraine and us. What next?” with Andrius Kubilius, EU Commis­sioner for Defense and Space, as well as repre­sen­ta­tives from the Baltic and Nordic countries, Poland and Ukraine on March 21 in Berlin.

Repression is inten­si­fying in Georgia: following an attempt to introduce a Russian-inspired foreign agents law, targeted attacks on civil society, protesters, and independent media have ensued. Civic space is increas­ingly being restricted – through surveil­lance, legal crack­downs, and the targeted perse­cution of critical voices. To withstand this crucial fight for democracy, Georgian civil society now urgently needs clear and decisive support from Europe. Ivane Chkhik­vadze from the Civil Society Foundation analyzes this escalation and outlines concrete expec­ta­tions towards the EU.

The EU risks losing Russia’s frozen assets as sanctions near expiration. Legal experts confirm trans­ferring these funds to Ukraine is lawful and would enforce Russia’s repara­tions oblig­ation. Seizing the assets could bolster inter­na­tional law and strengthen Ukraine finan­cially and military. Yulia Ziskina asks if the EU will act before it is too late.

In our first Transat­lantic Online Dialogue, hosted by Ambas­sador John Herbst together with Ralf Fücks (Center for Liberal Modernity), we had a rich and constructive discussion on the future of the transat­lantic partnership, thanks to Marie Mendras, Ambas­sador Daniel Fried, Michael Gahler, and Robin Wagner.

Trump celebrates himself above all in his State of the Union speech. His executive orders have not only plunged his country into uncer­tainty and insecurity since he took office. While Trump and his MAGA people are still on their honeymoon, the discontent with his policies – both domestic and foreign – is growing and the devas­tating conse­quences are increas­ingly being felt. Where is the US opposition and from where is there resis­tance from within the liberal, pro-democ­ratic ranks? Our political analyst, Jackson Janes, looks at the mood in his country from Washington. 

Over the heads of the Europeans, Trump and Putin are currently trying to divide up not only Ukraine, but also the dominance of “Greater Europe” between them. It is high time for the EU to enter the negoti­a­tions force­fully and with a clear concept. Germany must play a prominent role alongside France and Poland as soon as possible, including militarily, demands former German diplomat Johannes Regen­brecht. He analyzes the tradi­tions of thought that guide Trump and Putin and which need to be under­stood in order to decisively oppose their plans. 

It is her own personal story that gives hope: Israeli Tzipi Diskind was born in Jerusalem and is a member of the ultra-religious Haredim. According to the mother of four, her religious community could play a special mediating role in the conflict with the Pales­tinians. After all, they have a lot in common with religious Muslims, she says. Empathy and trust, above all, are needed so that dialog between Israelis and Pales­tinians can succeed, as Tzipi Diskind writes. She believes in a peaceful solution to the conflict — despite the extremely difficult political situation.