Is there any Future for the Russian Economy after the War?

When and how the Russian attack on Ukraine will end is uncertain. A protracted war of attrition in eastern Ukraine, with high human and material losses, is a possible scenario. Given the uncer­tainty about the outcome of the war, there remains a spec­u­la­tive moment to talk about Russia after the war. At the same time, inter­na­tional as well as domestic changes are emerging, which has to be under­stood in more detail.

A return to the status quo ante seems impos­sible – but what the future of the Russian economy and economic relations with Europe will look like has not yet been spelled out.

From our point of view, the future of the Russian economy should be discussed under two premises:1) Russia will remain subject to financial and tech­no­log­ical sanctions even after the end of the war, and 2) The West perma­nently reduces its energy imports to a minimum.  Should this scenario come to pass, the question arises whether the Russian economy will be largely isolated inter­na­tion­ally or whether it will be able to open up signif­i­cant sales markets beyond the West. To what extent can China and other states of the “global South” replace economic and technical coop­er­a­tion with the West?

Other questions are:

• What devel­op­ment paths remain for Russia after this war?
• To what extent will German /​ European companies still be involved in Russia in the future?
• What does the loss of the European energy market mean for Russia’s financial strength?
• How does the increased “brain drain” from Russia affect the country’s ability to modernize?

Discus­sions will be held by:

• Dr. Vladislav Inozemtsev, Director, Center for Post-Indus­trial Studies (Moscow), Special Advisor to MEMRI’s Russia Media Studies Project (Wash­ington, DC)
• Angelina Davydova, Fellow at the programme Media in Coop­er­a­tion and Tran­si­tion (MiCT)
• Dr. Janis Kluge, Russia expert, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for Inter­na­tional and Security Affairs)
• Michael Harms, Managing Director, Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations (Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft e.V.)

Moder­a­tion: Ralf Fücks, Centre for Liberal Modernity