Is there any Future for the Russian Economy after the War?

Foto: Ben Kaden /​ Unsplash

On 31 May, we dis­cussed the future of the Russian economy after the war in Ukraine with Dr Vladislav Inozemt­sev, Angelina Davy­dova, Dr Janis Kluge and Michael Harms.

When and how the Russian attack on Ukraine will end is uncer­tain. A pro­tracted war of attri­tion in eastern Ukraine, with high human and mate­r­ial losses, is a pos­si­ble sce­nario. Given the uncer­tainty about the outcome of the war, there remains a spec­u­la­tive moment to talk about Russia after the war. At the same time, inter­na­tional as well as domes­tic changes are emerg­ing, which has to be under­stood in more detail.

A return to the status quo ante seems impos­si­ble – but what the future of the Russian economy and eco­nomic rela­tions with Europe will look like has not yet been spelled out.

From our point of view, the future of the Russian economy should be dis­cussed under two premises:1) Russia will remain subject to finan­cial and tech­no­log­i­cal sanc­tions even after the end of the war, and 2) The West per­ma­nently reduces its energy imports to a minimum.  Should this sce­nario come to pass, the ques­tion arises whether the Russian economy will be largely iso­lated inter­na­tion­ally or whether it will be able to open up sig­nif­i­cant sales markets beyond the West. To what extent can China and other states of the “global South” replace eco­nomic and tech­ni­cal coop­er­a­tion with the West?

Other ques­tions are:

  • What devel­op­ment paths remain for Russia after this war?
  • To what extent will German /​ Euro­pean com­pa­nies still be involved in Russia in the future?
  • What does the loss of the Euro­pean energy market mean for Russia’s finan­cial strength?
  • How does the increased “brain drain” from Russia affect the country’s ability to modernize?

Dis­cus­sions will be held by:

  • Dr. Vladislav Inozemt­sev, Direc­tor, Center for Post-Indus­trial Studies (Moscow), Special Advisor to MEMRI’s Russia Media Studies Project (Wash­ing­ton, DC)
  • Angelina Davy­dova, Fellow at the pro­gramme Media in Coop­er­a­tion and Tran­si­tion (MiCT)
  • Dr. Janis Kluge, Russia expert, Stiftung Wis­senschaft und Politik (German Insti­tute for Inter­na­tional and Secu­rity Affairs)
  • Michael Harms, Man­ag­ing Direc­tor, Com­mit­tee on Eastern Euro­pean Eco­nomic Rela­tions (Ost-Auss­chuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft e.V.)

Mod­er­a­tion: Ralf Fücks, Centre for Liberal Modernity

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