International Conference: “Ukraine and Us. What’s Next?” – Messages and Conclusions
After the scandal in the Oval Office on February 28, it has been clear that Europe must take its own security into its own hands. The split in transatlantic relations is becoming increasingly clear. For Europe, this is now the moment of truth. The outcome of the war in Ukraine will have a decisive influence on the future of our continent. These messages also shaped the LibMod conference “Ukraine and us. What next?” with Andrius Kubilius, EU Commissioner for Defense and Space, as well as representatives from the Baltic and Nordic countries, Poland and Ukraine on March 21 in Berlin.
Negotiations with Russia are taking place in a parallel reality
“The Ukrainians are currently making great sacrifices to defend our security. One can only say to President Trump: ‘It is not Ukraine that must be grateful to us, but we have to be grateful to Ukraine!’” These words of Marieluise Beck opened the conference. Ralf Fücks in his welcoming speech added: ”At this moment, everything for which hundreds of thousands have fought in recent years, risking their lives, is at stake. It is a brutal perversion of a noble word when, in the name of peace, the subjugation of Ukraine is effectively demanded.”
No more relying on the US
“The longer we wonder how we should deal with the US, the more we miss the point at which we have to take responsibility for our own security.” – Sara Nanni (Alliance 90/The Greens)
The meeting between Trump, Vance and Selensky in the Oval Office, which Solomiia Bobrovska described as “disgusting, ugly and a humiliation of Ukrainian dignity”, as well as the further actions of the US administration, have forced Europe to realize that it can no longer count on US support. Sara Nanni (Alliance 90/The Greens), a member of the Bundestag, said: “The longer we wonder how we should deal with the US, the more we miss the point in time when we have to take responsibility for our own security.”
There was broad agreement among the Europeans in their assessment of the new US policy. Danish expert Flemming Splidsboel Hansen said: “The impact of Trump’s presidency on transatlantic relations has already been devastating, even though he only took office two months ago. I see no signs that his administration is willing to put pressure on Russia. So far, this has not led to any positive developments for Ukraine. Rather, we see a deliberate policy of marginalizing Ukraine and its president.”
His Swedish colleague Charlotta Rodhe, deputy director at the Stockholm Center for Eastern Europe Studies, was equally critical: “Every time we have rewarded Russian aggression by making concessions to achieve de-escalation, this approach has led to more escalation.”
Russia’s aim is to create the illusion of negotiations. “This is to prevent us from making the necessary decisions. Sham negotiations are a trap for us.”
Solomiia Bobrovska warned: “There is an endless list of demands from the Trump administration about what Ukraine has to do. But what are the demands on the Russian side? Will Russia stop fighting on the front line? [...] The Russian threat will not end and we need to be prepared for that.”
Marek Świerczyński of Warsaw think tank Polityka Insight advised caution, saying it was unhelpful to go into conflict mode with the US, especially for the Baltic states and Poland, which are particularly dependent on Washington’s support.
Moment of truth for Europe
European intelligence services have openly stated that plans to attack NATO countries are more than just a fantasy of Kremlin propagandists. We should be prepared for Russia to test Article 5, the mutual defense clause of the NATO treaty, within the next five years. Ralf Fücks commented: “The realization that we have to prepare for war in order to prevent it, marks a profound change in public awareness. This is not so much a question of resources as of political will.”
“We are in the deepest security and defense crisis since World War II. This crisis will force us to become significantly stronger on the European continent.” – Andrius Kubilius
EU Commissioner Kubilius emphasized the dramatic nature of the situation:
“We are in the deepest security and defense crisis since World War II. This crisis will force us to become significantly stronger on the European continent [...] We are living in historic times – for Ukraine, Germany and all of Europe. American engagement is waning while the Russian threat is growing.” Andrius Kubilius explained the steps the EU is already taking to meet this challenge: The new “White Paper” on Defense, published on March 19, 2025, presents a comprehensive strategy for strengthening European defense capabilities by 2030. It contains a number of proposals to close critical capacity gaps and develop a strong defense industrial base.
Strengthening the partnership with other democracies in the world also plays an important role. The chapter on Ukraine provides for increased military aid and deeper integration of the European and Ukrainian defense industry. It should help to expand and modernize European arms production. Ukraine is ahead of Europe in its ability to rapidly increase its own arms production, even under war conditions.
In addition, the Commission has presented an ambitious defense package as part of the “ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030” program, which provides EU member states with financial resources to increase investment in defense. Ukraine and the EFTA/EEA countries will be able to participate in joint procurements, and it will be possible to purchase weapons from their companies.
Andrius Kubilius reiterated that the European Union would definitely not recognize the occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territories by Russia. The path for the future reintegration of these territories into Ukraine must remain open. The EU will not lift sanctions against Russia as long as the Kremlin continues to occupy Ukrainian territory. Europe will also not accept restrictions on Ukraine’s military capacity. A strong Ukrainian army is in Europe’s interest.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba called on European policymakers to act now, even before the final questions of future European defense have been clarified. He said that European security would be decided in Ukraine in the coming months. This requires a different level of determination and speed from European policymakers.
The EU should redirect arms exports to Ukraine that have been agreed with other countries. In order to quickly rearm Ukraine, the EU member states should follow the Danish model and directly commission weapons and equipment from the Ukrainian defense industry. They could deliver cheaper and faster than Western European companies.
Further steps towards common security would be a European air umbrella for Ukraine, European training missions for the Ukrainian army, a joint military presence in the Black Sea and the deployment of European troops in Ukraine.
Turning point number two
In the Nordic and Baltic countries, the threat from Russia has long been perceived differently than in many Western European countries. Ambassador Alda Vanaga of Latvia commented on this, saying, “Our support comes from the understanding that this is also our war. Ukraine is defending our freedom and our democracy. There is a great deal of support from Germany, but it comes from solidarity and not because Germany perceives Russia as a threat. I hope that this way of thinking will change.”
Marieluise Beck agreed: “Our support is not a sign of generosity – it allows us to sit here warm and dry while Ukraine bleeds for us.”
In Europe, Germany’s increased efforts to expand its defense capabilities are seen with approval. The open question is whether Germany will be on board with the UK, France and other European countries when it comes to forming a “coalition of the willing” to secure a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. Our partners expect the new German government to bring about a “second turning point” in its support for Ukraine and to strengthen European defense.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the fault lines in its relationship with the US could become a catalyst for the emergence of a European defense union that can exist within NATO. In this new security architecture, the Nordic-Baltic defense cooperation (NB8 initiative) and cooperation with Ukraine take on a special significance.
Essentials for negotiations to end the war
In conclusion, Ralf Fücks summarized the key messages of the conference:
“The negotiations between Putin and Trump are not about a peace worthy of the name. There can be no peace in the sense of constructive cooperation and partnership-based coexistence with the current Russian regime. The only thing that can be at stake are the conditions for a stable ceasefire.”
The only way to force Putin to end the war is to increase arms supplies to Ukraine and tighten sanctions against Russia. The aggressor must be held responsible for ending the war, not Ukraine, which is under massive pressure from the Trump administration.
Fücks called on European governments to agree on common “essentials” for negotiations to end the war – also as a counterweight to Washington:
1. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine
Europe must ensure that Ukraine is not blackmailed into a dictated peace.
2. No recognition of territorial conquests and no division of Ukraine into a western and a Russian sphere.
Recognition of forcible conquests would be a breach of international law.
3. Full sovereignty for Ukraine
Any agreement to end the war must respect Ukraine’s full sovereignty over its internal affairs and over its foreign and alliance policy. The option of joining NATO must remain open, even if it does not happen tomorrow.
4. EU integration is non-negotiable.
On the contrary, it must be accelerated.
In the words of Andrius Kubilius: “Ukraine’s integration into the European Union – that is our answer to Putin.”
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