Publi­ca­tions

Ukraine has been a target of Russian infor­mation manip­u­lation and inter­ference for more than a decade – on a scale closely inter­twined with military force, cyber opera­tions and occupation gover­nance. The analysis shows which narra­tives, platforms and methods Russia uses to undermine trust, intensify war fatigue and weaken the resilience of Ukrainian society.

Armenia is seeking to reduce its foreign and security policy depen­dence on Russia while expanding its ties with the EU and other Western partners. Moscow is responding with political and economic pressure as well as targeted influence opera­tions. The analysis shows how Russia exploits existing fears, conflicts and depen­dencies to discredit Armenia’s Western orien­tation and preserve its influence over the country.

Germany is at the center of Russian influence opera­tions — not only because of its political and economic signif­i­cance, but also due to societal vulner­a­bil­ities that are being delib­er­ately exploited. The analysis examines the strategies Russia is using to desta­bilize German democracy and the resulting impli­ca­tions for European security.

Russia is using targeted infor­mation manip­u­lation in Moldova as part of a compre­hensive hybrid strategy to desta­bilize democ­ratic processes and undermine trust in state insti­tu­tions. However, the experience in Moldova shows that resilience, good gover­nance, and democ­ratic oversight are more effective responses to this than censorship alone.

The five country studies in this dossier examine the Russian FIMI playbook in Armenia, Georgia, Germany, Moldova, and Ukraine through a compar­ative lens.

Georgia’s infor­mation environment has undergone a funda­mental shift. Pro-Russian influence opera­tions are no longer driven primarily by external actors, such as Kremlin-controlled media, but increas­ingly by domestic actors, including the Georgian Dream government. As a result, anti-Western disin­for­mation has entered Georgia’s political mainstream.

The EU candidate country is facing one of its deepest political crises in recent years. For more than a year, people have been taking to the streets in peaceful protest. At the same time, the Russia-leaning ruling party, Georgian Dream, has been hardening its course: repression against civil society, independent media, and the opposition is visibly intensifying.

Ukraine will require Europe’s largest recon­s­truc­tion effort since World War II, with needs esti­ma­ted at 524 billion US dollars. A new policy brief by United Ukraine Think Tank Direc­tor Igor Popov out­lines stra­te­gic prio­ri­ties that go beyond res­to­ra­tion to trans­for­ma­tion, crea­ting mutual bene­fits for Ukraine and Europe.

Ukraine’s resi­li­ence depends on balan­ced inter­na­tio­nal support com­bi­ning mili­tary aid, emer­gency recon­s­truc­tion, and pre­pa­ra­tion for long-term reco­very. A new policy brief by eco­no­mist Olek­san­dra Betliy demons­tra­tes how stra­te­gic defense invest­ments reduce overall costs while sup­port­ing German indus­try and Euro­pean security.

EU accession negoti­a­tions with Ukraine are hitting struc­tural and political limits in times of war—both in Kyiv and in Brussels. Techno­cratic proce­dures and exclu­sively positive EU rhetoric undermine the necessary incen­tives for reform, analyzes Liubov Akulenko and proposes a Germany-led “coalition of the willing” to delib­er­ately advance blocked reforms through confi­dential dialogue.

As the European Union adjusts its policies in prepa­ration for a new round of enlargement, relations between Moldova and the European Union (EU) have entered a new stage of devel­opment. Natalia Stercul (Foreign Policy Associ­ation of the Republic von Moldova) analyses the situation.

Georgia is on the path to author­i­tarian consol­i­dation of power. The systematic restriction of civil society, political compe­tition, and freedom of assembly goes hand in hand with a foreign policy shift away from the EU. An analysis by Nino Chachava and Saba Bachveli (both: Civil Society Foundation, Georgia).

The parlia­mentary elections on September 28 will be historic in Moldova, even if the outcome is still uncertain. Various scenarios are possible: Will Moldova succeed in pushing ahead with EU accession as protection against a perceived threat from Russia? Much depends on how the population reacts to frustration and fears, as Denis Cenusa analyzes for us.

Over the course of its 75-year history, NATO has weathered many storms. At least two previous crises were existential – and in both cases, the US played a key role. The new crisis in the transat­lantic alliance, triggered by President Trump, runs deeper. Europe needs a bold and strong strategy to brave the storm. Gerlinde Niehus, former Deputy Director for Defense and Security Cooper­ation at NATO, analyzes the current situation for us.

Despite the war, Ukraine is moving toward European Union membership at an unprece­dented pace. For its accession to succeed, it needs decisive support from the EU – and a solution to circumvent the ongoing blockades imposed by Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, Sergiy Solodkyy argues in his policy brief.

Beijing and Moscow are linked by a strategic partnership and a common adversary, “the West”. Senior Diplomat Johannes Regen­brecht analyzes for us what this alliance is about, what interests Xi Jinping is pursuing in Putin’s large-scale war against Ukraine and what challenges the Russian-Chinese alliance faces from an erratic president in the White House. The US and the European Union must be aware that restric­tions on Ukraine’s sover­eignty will set a signif­icant precedent not only for Europe, but also for the Indo-Pacific region. 

Repression is inten­si­fying in Georgia: following an attempt to introduce a Russian-inspired foreign agents law, targeted attacks on civil society, protesters, and independent media have ensued. Civic space is increas­ingly being restricted – through surveil­lance, legal crack­downs, and the targeted perse­cution of critical voices. To withstand this crucial fight for democracy, Georgian civil society now urgently needs clear and decisive support from Europe. Ivane Chkhik­vadze from the Civil Society Foundation analyzes this escalation and outlines concrete expec­ta­tions towards the EU.

The future of Europe is at stake in the face of Russian aggression. Germany and Poland should undertake a joint effort for a new European Russia policy, finding common ground despite their entrenched differ­ences. A new start can arise from shared insight and interests, if there is political will.