Overshoot – Can we exceed and return to 1.5°C?
Recent trends show that we will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C by the early 2030s, even if efforts to rapidly reduce emissions increase. In climate science, there is increasing discussion of “overshoot” – exceeding 1.5°C and then returning to it by the end of the century. Our factsheet by Andy Reisinger explains what the temporary temperature overshoot means for (ir)reversible consequences, what is needed to get back to 1.5°C and what needs to be done now to achieve this.
It is increasingly unlikely that global warming can be limited to 1.5°C. Nevertheless, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a rhetorical point of reference for many political declarations, national climate targets and laws, and corporate strategies. This growing discrepancy between stated goals and reality can only be reconciled if it is assumed that exceeding 1.5°C is only temporary and that global warming will be reduced back below 1.5°C before the end of the century. This trajectory – crossing the 1.5°C threshold and then lowering global warming below that threshold – is referred to as “overshoot” in the scientific literature and in the latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
According to the IPCC’s definition, overshoot represents both a threat and a promise: a threat because overshooting 1.5°C will lead to intensified impacts of climate change; a promise because bringing the temperature back down before the end of this century would lead to less long-term climate change damage than if global warming remained well above 1.5°C permanently.
Our author Andy Reisinger discusses: How realistic is it to lower the temperature again? What effects of climate change could be avoided if the global temperature were to fall again, compared to a warming that remains above 1.5°C – but also what damage would be caused even by a temporary exceedance? What does this mean for global and national short- and long-term emissions targets, strategies and measures? And how realistic is the prospect of returning to below 1.5°C of global warming? Answers to these questions are crucial for the debate on whether overshoot is a viable strategy as a building block for future climate policy or a false hope that could distract from the urgent efforts to reduce emissions. The factsheet is aimed not only at experts, but also at an interested public.
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