The Big Rift: On the Future of Transat­lantic Partnership

The issues discussed were not only the current state of US-European relations, with a particular focus on Ukraine, but also what steps Europe needs to take now to ensure Ukraine’s future and its own security and stability in the face of erratic leadership and uncertain partners in the United States.

Perhaps future histo­rians will say that Donald Trump became an invol­untary midwife for European Defense Union – Ralf Fücks 

In his intro­ductory statement, Ralf Fücks pointed out that we were speaking at a time when the inter­na­tional world order as we knew it was crumbling before our eyes. It was the beginning of a new era and a moment of truth for Europe that would show whether it was capable of taking its security and future into its own hands. With a touch of optimism, Fücks suggested: “Perhaps future histo­rians will say that Donald Trump became an invol­untary midwife for the European Defense Union.”

There is a possi­bility of a decent outcome – Daniel Fried 

Daniel Fried, Former US Ambas­sador to Poland and Fellow at Atlantic Council, pointed out that the talk was taking place after the meeting between the US delegation and Ukraine in Ryad, which had resulted in the US lifting its damaging freeze on military aid and intel­li­gence sharing.  The ball was now in Russia’s court. It is Putin who is now under pressure, as Trump has already threatened Russia with sanctions if it rejects the ceasefire. Fried himself was slightly optimistic that the situation could turn for the better, and that Trump’s plan could even serve the interests of Ukraine and Europe:

“The French and British have stepped up and offered to lead a security mission inside Ukraine. They are right to insist on American support. Defense Secretary Hegseth said there was no way the U.S. would deploy soldiers inside Ukraine. But he did not mention or rule out the possi­bility of American support and backup, including military backup for a European force inside Ukraine. So there is a possi­bility of a decent outcome.”

I am confident that a new coalition in Germany will take a new stance, so that by Easter, a new government will adopt a [stronger] position of the Baltic and the Nordic states – Michael Gahler 

Michael Gahler, Member of the European Parliament (CDU), agreed that the Russians are now under pressure because of the ceasefire proposal. He empha­sized Germany’s role in a new and strong Europe that is emerging: “I am confident that a new coalition in Germany will take a new stance, so that by Easter, a new government will adopt a [stronger] position of the Baltic and the Nordic states.”

Germany, he added, will give it real weight within the EU, being in line with the British Prime Minister and President Macron. What is currently devel­oping is something that has a good chance of forming a strong position in support of Ukraine, he said.

The Europeans are back – Marie Mendras 

Marie Mendras, an expert in Russian and post-Soviet studies and a professor at Sciences Po University, pointed to the new strength that Europe has built up in recent weeks. The Kremlin, she said, could not decipher what was happening in Europe because it did not under­stand how NATO and the EU worked. Thanks to the work of European countries and the leadership of Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, followed by many other European leaders, the Canadian leader, the Europeans are back, she said. She added that it was extremely important for Germany to be back in the center. She said the bonds between Europe were stronger than those between Trump and Putin.

“For Putin, the situation is not as good as it was 2 weeks ago. For Trump, the situation is also not as good as it was 2 weeks ago. The Europeans are back! And they are very strong. The Trump-Putin duo is a very tactile, fragile axis of convenience.”

No other Minsk! – Marie Mendras 

She referred to President Macron, who had demanded a ceasefire only alongside a strong peace agreement, with all the issues already on the table: from prisoner exchanges to post-war repara­tions. “No other Minsk!” had to be the motto for the current and future meetings.

It was made clear that there would be no relations between Moscow and Washington without the Ukrainians. Trump wanted to put pressure on us and on the Ukrainians. Now he had to pressure Putin. “Putin feels trapped. His options have narrowed. But he cannot spoil this relationship with the American president today,” she said.

The current question for Europe is whether there will be European troops on the ground to guarantee a ceasefire, she said. A question that requires a difficult answer.

These days in Germany we are negoti­ating the biggest investment in the military we have ever made. We need to step up as Europeans and as Germans – Robin Wagener 

Robin Wagener, member of the German Bundestag (Alliance 90/​The Greens), looked at the current negoti­a­tions taking place in Germany.

“These days in Germany we are negoti­ating the biggest investment in the military we have ever made. We have to do it in a hurry. We have to step up as Europeans, and that means we have to step up as Germans in this alliance of European stability and peace. And we should be very careful that we do it in the spirit of acting as a strong European pillar within a transat­lantic partnership that still exists.”

The current Atlantic pillar is unpre­dictable and unreliable. One needs to work on the basis of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. Europeans are in a better position now, he said, but there is an urgent need for Europeans to grow up and take European security into their own hands, while hoping for changes in the United States and perhaps for more US interest in the transat­lantic partnership in the future. Maybe new alliances could be built then, which would work on an equal partnership basis.

At the moment, however, the USA is neither inter­ested in a stable peace and security order in Europe nor in supporting democ­ratic states but rather acts in a trans­ac­tional manner.

Europe needs to be able to act when the Americans are absent. This does not mean the end of the transat­lantic alliance – Daniel Fried 

Ambas­sador Daniel Fried reflected on the Kremlin’s possible reactions to the ceasefire proposal, which contain several potential traps for Europeans to fall into.

He analyzed the Trump admin­is­tration as consisting of several different, deeply divided groups:

• The Neo-Reaganites, who still believed in the free world;
• The Asia-firsters, who believed that the U.S. should focus almost entirely on Asia, and especially China, instead of supporting Europe;
• the Yalta group, or the George Orwell group, that advocates dividing the world into three big zones of interest.

It remained to be seen which of these groups would prevail.

However, he added: “Europe’s efforts to stand up could mean a happy ending to the current disruptive phase of affairs: this could be the case if Europeans under­stand that Europe needs strategic capabil­ities and strategic autonomy. This would mean that Europe would be able to act when the Americans are absent for whatever reason. This would not mean the end of the transat­lantic alliance”.

“Trump loves winning more than anything else,” Fried said. “If he can be convinced that winning is pushing back on Putin to get a good deal on Ukraine and making a deal with the Europeans so that they actually stand up and contribute more to their own defense, then he can say and claim that he saved the transat­lantic alliance and saved NATO.”

Michael Gahler added that strategic autonomy means building an indus­trial base to become self-suffi­cient in producing what is needed.

“When the dust settles and the chaos subsides, when the politics in the U.S. hits reality, and hopefully soon, I think there should be a realization that we are always ready to be there as partners. We want this partnership to continue.”

The current ceasefire proposal had been drafted mainly by the Ukrainians with the Europeans, but they had wisely given Trump the courtesy of presenting it as his own plan – Marie Mendras 

Ralf Fücks pointed out that Europeans need to come to terms with each other and find unity on the question of what are the minimum goals of the outcome of the war: “What do we want to achieve? What are we willing to negotiate with Russia?”

Marie Mendras empha­sized the talent of Vladimir Zelensky to maintain his own dignity during the White House drama. His popularity had soared after the Oval Office disaster and was a motivation for all the meetings and decisions that took place in Europe after­wards, she said. Europe had to build on Zelen­sky’s ability to ensure that Trump could save face.

The current ceasefire proposal, she said, had been drafted mainly by the Ukrainians with the Europeans, but they had wisely given Trump the courtesy of presenting it as his own plan. It was now a test of will. It both gave Donald Trump a trophy and renewed the US military and intel­li­gence support that had put the Russian army and the Kremlin in a position of weakness.

Robin Wagner added that Russia is in a bad situation right now and should not always be overes­ti­mated. The country has both economic problems and problems with internal stability.

The last point of discussion was the idea of holding elections in Ukraine. An idea, as Marie Mendras pointed out, that origi­nally came from Russia and was put on the table by Trump. All partic­i­pants agreed that elections would tear Ukraine apart and should not be held until a secure peace is estab­lished. Ambas­sador John Herbst also noted that neither civil society nor the opposition wanted elections, which would be impos­sible to hold in the midst of an ongoing war.

The very lively presen­tation resulted in an extremely knowl­edgeable discussion that shed light on different perspec­tives of the current state of affairs in the relationship between the U.S. and Europe, and Ukraine in particular. To be repeated soon!