Nuclear Safety in Times of War
While the Western countries have introduced unprecedented sanctions against Russia’s energy sector, its nuclear industry, represented by the state-owned nuclear energy monopolist Rosatom, remains an exception in the sanction policy of the EU and G7. Despite its role in seizing the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and virtually blackmailing Europe, Rosatom seems to be protected from the sanctions, as many countries are still dependent on the Russian nuclear industry.
On February 27th we discussed this issue with Anton Hofreiter, member of the German Bundestag, Victoria Voitsitska, former Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Energy Committee (2014–2019) and expert at the International Center for the Ukrainian Victory, and Rebecca Harms, former member of the European Parliament. Specifically, we talked about how the current situation at the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP, how endangered other nuclear power plants are, what sanctions should be introduced against Rosatom, and what the obstacles for the nuclear sanctions against Russia are. One of the aims was to clarify how Ukraine can be protected against Russian nuclear terrorism and what could be realistic strategies to make Europe and G7 independent from the Russian nuclear industry to clear the path to the long-awaited sanctions against Rosatom.
By seizing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and shelling Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russia is blackmailing Europe
Until the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, attacks on and militarization of nuclear installations in war zones were not on the public agenda due to an international understanding that nuclear power plants need special protection.[i]Only with the Russian occupation of Chornobyl and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants, those scenarios became a reality, and right now the risks are very significant. In case of a nuclear accident, it is not only the territory of Ukraine and Russia that would be polluted but, depending on the wind, Eastern and Central Europe and the Baltic states would risk contamination.
While the biggest fear of the public is a direct hit of an NPP, a dysfunctional energy system can also cause a nuclear disaster. Knowing that, Russia has been deliberately targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, especially the grids and substations, creating conditions for a major possible disaster similar to the Three Mile Island accident in the U.S., when a cooling malfunction caused part of the core to melt. Thus, it is not only nuclear power plants themselves that must be protected to prevent nuclear incidents, but crucial energy infrastructure too.
The situation at the seized Zaporizhzhia power plant is very critical. As Russia declared ownership over the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, Rosatom took control of Zaporizhzhia. Before the full-scale war 11 000 people used to work at the site, now only 3 500 workers remain, working under horrible conditions. According to reports, Ukrainian staff is intimidated, family members are threatened, they cannot leave the city and are being interrogated and forced to work 12 hours shifts. Despite the promises of the IAEA, the area of the Zaporizhzhia NPP was not only not demilitarised but, according to Victoria Voitsitska, Russian military presence has even increased. Many of the members of the discussion agreed that the presence of the IEAE at the power plant increased the global perception that the situation is under control. However, as of now, Zaporizhzhia NPP does not produce electricity. The electricity needed for cooling during the shut-down mode comes from a Ukrainian substation, which is continuously shelled by Russians.
To protect people, critical infrastructure, and the ships involved in the Grain Initiative from Russian missiles, Ukraine urgently needs more air-defence systems and fighter jets. Anton Hofreiter states that scaling up the production of the IRIS‑T air-defence system in Germany is necessary. IRIS‑T is one of the world’s most effective missiles and with a 100 % success rate, has proven its efficiency in Ukraine. However, Hofreiter emphasizes that as weapon manufacturers are very reluctant to invest more in production lines, state guarantees would be needed. It remains unclear whether Ukraine will provide these guarantees or whether the EU or Germany must step in. At the same time, Ukraine will need air-defence systems for the next decades to come.
Implementing sanctions against Rosatom and ending dependency on Russian nuclear industry requires unity among Western countries
Rosatom is a state-owned corporation that comprises over 360 organisations, including research institutes, nuclear weapons division, and nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet. It is one of the biggest players in nuclear fuel (17% of the global market), uranium production (16% of the global market), and Rosatom ranks first on the global uranium enrichment market (38%).[ii] On top of that, Rosatom operates at 25 sites in 10 countries. Due to their significant role in international markets and service offers for the entire NPP life cycle, Russian nuclear industry products and cooperation with Rosatom take time to be replaced.
Anton Hofreiter argues that Europe, together with the G7, should make itself independent of Russia in the nuclear sector. Accordingly, as long as states rely on cooperation with Rosatom, they are susceptible to blackmail. Therefore, the next sanctions package must also include Rosatom.
The first step might be personal sanctions against Rosatom managers who interfere in the operation of Ukrainian nuclear power plants and endanger Europe’s nuclear safety. Additionally, all intergovernmental agreements and research projects with Rosatom should be terminated. Business relations with Rosatom must be prohibited. Already now, the EU and G7 states should set up a task force with government and parliamentary representatives to prepare phasing out cooperation with Rosatom.[iii] Victoria Voitsitska suggests that phasing out EU dependence on Russian nuclear products and services must be included in the REPowerEU plan of the European Commission.[iv]
Getting rid of the dependency can be very difficult but not impossible if there is political will. The discussion over nuclear power as a sustainable energy source is heated, with some arguing for its potentials, others for its risks. However, it is clear that it is impossible to exchange nuclear power from one day to another. Reorganisation of the energy mix requires a long adjustment period, which can be a chance to diversify suppliers and cut ties with Rosatom. Ukraine itself is a good example, as it does not import any fuel rods from Russia anymore and has switched its nuclear power units to nuclear fuel from the U.S. manufacturer Westinghouse. At the same time, Ukraine has resumed nuclear waste processing operations at the Chornobyl power plant since Russian occupying forces withdrew from the site.
The Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Finland have also expressed a desire to make the transition from the Russian nuclear fuel supply. But Hungary and Bulgaria declared that they would veto any sanctions against Rosatom. France, which is not exploiting its own reprocessing capabilities, because Russia dominates the market with low prices, is also against nuclear sanctions. Anton Hofreiter describes the issue of dependency of France on Russian nuclear imports as crucial for EU unity, which is needed for the introduction of sanctions against Rosatom. The major question is how to help France to get rid of its dependency. Thus, France should be supported in raising its own production of fuel rods to phase out imports from Russia.
What are the next steps?
The United Kingdom and the United States have already imposed personal sanctions on key Rosatom officials, and the EU and other G7 countries should follow this example.
An effective measure to stop Russia from expanding its influence and creating new dependencies, is to block any ongoing or future projects of Rosatom abroad by introducing secondary sanctions on companies supplying its nuclear power plants with equipment and technologies. Germany demonstrated a good example when the German Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (BAFA) blocked the delivery of equipment from Siemens Energy for the construction of nuclear power plants in Turkey and Hungary built by Rosatom.
As some EU member states are still dependent on Rosatom, the European Union needs to urgently search for alternative solutions for facility maintenance and replacement of Russian-made equipment. Another step should be the diversification of conversion and enrichment services, as well as replacing the supplier of uranium raw materials and nuclear fuel along with spent fuel storage and reprocessing services.[v]
Any new contracts with Rosatom for nuclear fuel services and construction of nuclear power plants need to be frozen or terminated, as it was done by Finland when it abandoned plans on building the Hanhikivi NPP with Rosatom.
Implementing these and further measures would demonstrate Russia that it cannot act with impunity in nuclear matters and would significantly reduce risks of nuclear disasters in Ukraine. At the same time, these sanctions will help Europe to overcome its dependency on the Russian nuclear industry and reduce Russia’s revenues. Although these revenues are less significant than those from oil exports, they are still important to further weaken Russia’s potential to finance the war.
[i] During armed conflict, nuclear power plants fall under special protection in Art. 56, 1st Additional Protocol, Geneva Convention. Accordingly, installations and equipment which contains hazardous forces, needs protection.
[iii] Anton Hofreiter — Sanktioniert Rosatom!
[iv] REPowerEU explained: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/de/infographics/repowereu/
[v] Rosatom and Civilian Nuclear Power: Recommendations for Sanctions against the Russian Federation
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