Ukraine’s EU Accession: Full Steam Ahead but Bottle­necks Remain

Executive summary

Ukraine’s membership bid taken on real momentum since the country applied for EU membership in the early days of the full-scale invasion. Though Ukraine’s track record is generally positive, the devil is in the details. Difficult reforms, especially in the judiciary, require the attention and support of the EU and its member states.

On 28 February 2022, just days after Russian troops attacked Ukraine from the north, east, and south, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted a bold appli­cation for membership in the European Union (EU). This daring move came at a time when Russian forces were on the outskirts of Kyiv and the fate of the nation hung in the balance. Since then, Ukraine has made remarkable progress with its historic membership bid, despite the ongoing war of aggression and the numerous challenges it poses to the state, its bureau­cracy, and society.

In the two years following the appli­cation, Ukraine swiftly advanced from candidate country status to the first Inter­gov­ern­mental Conference in June 2024. The adoption of the Negoti­ating Framework in March of 2024 marked the formal start of the accession process. The analytical exami­nation of Ukraine’s compliance with EU laws has progressed smoothly since then. 

The screening process having been completed for the first of six negoti­ation clusters, the EU and Ukraine are expected to open cluster negoti­a­tions in the first half of 2025, under the current Polish Presi­dency of the European Council. This first cluster focuses on 

Moderate progress in
alignment with EU acquis?

While Ukraine has been lauded for its ambitious political goal of completing the accession process in record time, its substantive efforts in this area are under scrutiny. One the whole, Ukraine’s track record since its appli­cation is good, though challenges persist. The 2023 and 2024 European Commission enlargement reports highlighted signif­icant progress but also empha­sised areas needing improvement.

The pace of change since late 2023 has been moderate. The EC’s 2024 report notes, “Ukraine has some level of prepa­ration with regard to the judiciary, the fight against corruption, and respect for funda­mental rights, and has made some progress.” An analysis by the Ukrainian news outlet European Truth found that Ukraine was the only one of the six EU accession candi­dates that had failed to make “substantial progress” between the two reports.

The two independent shadow reports from Ukrainian civil society also emphasise the continuing need for extensive reforms. Mykhailo Zhernakov, an expert on the judiciary and co-author of one of the shadow reports, charac­terised the progress in judicial reforms in 2024 as minimal, noting that no progress was made on Supreme Court reform, even in the wake of a major corruption scandal at the Court in 2023.

The judiciary remains the most signif­icant stumbling block for Ukraine’s EU bid. Reform in this area must reach beyond ensuring judicial indepen­dence: a thorough overhaul of personnel selection processes is needed, to shift the emphasis to candidate quali­fi­ca­tions and ensure integrity. The success of Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Courts demon­strates the value of involving inter­na­tional experts to uphold high ethical standards—an approach that could be extended to other insti­tu­tions, such as the National Police and the Customs Service.

Public sector reform is
criti­cally important

One often-overlooked obstacle to Ukraine’s EU ambitions is the limited capacity of its public sector to adopt and implement EU laws. The strength­ening of public admin­is­tration, reform of the civil services, and improvement of evidence-based policy­making and monitoring is of critical importance.

Lessons from other EU candidate countries suggest that Ukraine’s negoti­ation teams should be made up of a balanced group of political appointees and bureau­cratic experts in order to maintain insti­tu­tional memory and ensure conti­nuity during political transi­tions. Currently, the negoti­ation teams are led exclu­sively by polit­i­cally appointed deputy ministers, with no bureau­crats serving as deputy heads of the negoti­ating groups.

Political will and public
support remain strong

Despite the slow pace of reforms in recent months, the political momentum in Kyiv, Brussels, and most European capitals remains strong. Ukrainian leaders, including the President, Prime Minister, and Deputy Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, have consis­tently reaffirmed their commitment to EU membership. This political resolve is bolstered by record levels of public support. The 2024 EU enlargement report notes, “There is an overall consensus among Ukrainian society and author­ities, including the parlia­mentary opposition, that EU integration is a priority for the country.”

This public enthu­siasm and political deter­mi­nation under­score the trans­for­mative potential of EU membership, partic­u­larly with respect to advancing difficult reforms such as judicial overhauls.

Pace of reforms expected to increase in 2025

With the screening process for the funda­mentals cluster complete and negoti­a­tions set to open, reform efforts are expected to gain momentum in 2025. The European Commission will establish detailed roadmaps with bench­marks, enabling better monitoring and imple­men­tation of necessary changes.

For maximum impact, these roadmaps must include clear, specific bench­marks for each area of reform. This will ensure effective imple­men­tation and allow independent experts and the Commission to assess progress accurately.

Encour­ag­ingly, the EU’s leadership remains highly supportive of Ukraine’s bid. The European Commission President, the High Repre­sen­tative, the Enlargement Commis­sioner, and the Council President have all reiterated their commitment to Ukraine’s aspira­tions. Public support within the EU for Ukraine’s membership also remains robust.

Conclu­sions

Ukraine must work closely with the EU and its member states to seize this historic window of oppor­tunity and achieve meaningful reform break­throughs, partic­u­larly in the judiciary. 2025 is an important year and the EU and its member states must ensure that the political will to join as fast as possible trans­lates into tangible and quali­tative reform efforts. Technical and political support will be essential to ensure the quality, success, and sustain­ability of these reforms. At the same time the EU and its insti­tu­tions must make sure that reform commit­ments are met. That is why the speed and quality of Ukraine’s EU bid depends on how specific the EU and Ukraine formulate the roadmaps and bench­marks, against which the progress can be measured. 

Ultimately, while Kyiv must adopt, implement, and adhere to European laws and norms, the timing of Ukraine’s accession will also depend on the resolution of its war with Russia, the pace of post-war recon­struction, and the EU’s readiness to absorb new members. While the path ahead is fraught with uncer­tainty, Ukraine’s commitment to reforms, even during this existential conflict, remains its best chance to achieve its European aspira­tions.