Systemic Chaos: One Year of US-Russian Talks on Ukraine
Europe remains dependent on US military power to effectively deter Russia. But Washington is no longer a reliable partner committed to the defence of its European allies. Former German diplomat Johannes Regenbrecht looks at the ongoing negotiations and makes recommendations how Europe’s untapped economic and military potential can be put into action.
ABSTRACT
Europe is facing a strategic dilemma. The United States is no longer willing to commit itself unconditionally to the defence of Europe or to uphold the international legal order. In the many rounds of talks with Moscow on the fate of Ukraine, Trump’s envoys represent neither the interests of Ukraine nor those of Europe. At the same time, only Washington holds the military power to effectively deter Russia and prevent renewed Russian aggression in the aftermath of a ceasefire agreement. For Europe, therefore, there is currently no alternative to keeping the US on board as the pivotal power centre of NATO.
But Europe can and must do much more itself. For example, its economic leverage to prevent third-party states from circumventing sanctions is far from exhausted. Tougher action against Moscow’s shadow fleet of oil tankers is the right thing to do. Europe needs a new approach to military and defence policy cooperation, coordinated military build-up, including the creation of a European defence community based on the ‘coalition of the willing’ which includes Great Britain and Canada.
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