“How Fragile is the Putin System?”
International Expert Network Russia
“How Fragile is the Putin System?”
20 November 2023
Centre for Eastern Studies (ul. Koszykowa 6a, 00–564 Warsaw) and online
The failed Wagner uprising exposed a fundamental weakness in Russia’s system of power: neither the political elite, the security services nor the population were eager to defend the leader in the Kremlin. We could see the element of panic in Putin’s address to the Russian people.
Yet, since Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, Vladimir Putin’s grip on power seems firmer than ever. But serious questions remain: How long will Putin be able to control the elites and suppress both those who want to stop the war and those who want to fight it more aggressively? How will the lack of significant military success in Ukraine affect his power? Does the Kremlin have the economic and military capacity to wage a protracted war? What is the impact of Western sanctions and how they should be recalibrated?
We will seek answers to these questions and take stock of the West’s policy towards Russia and its strategic options.
***Please note that the event will be held under CHATHAM HOUSE RULES***
Programme – as of 16 November 2023
9:30 – 10:00
Welcoming and Introduction
- Wojciech Konończuk, Centre for Eastern Studies, Warsaw
- Ralf Fücks, Centre for Liberal Modernity, Berlin
10:00 – 11:30
Session One: Cracks in the ruling elite: Oligarchs, Technocrats or the Siloviki?
- Maria Domanska, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Warsaw
- Abbas Gallyamov, independent political analyst (online)
- Arkady Mil-Man, Senior Researcher and the Head of the Russia Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel-Aviv University (online)
- Alexandra Prokopenko, visiting fellow, Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia, German Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin.
Moderation: Maria Sannikova-Franck, Centre for Liberal Modernity
11:30 – 12:00 Coffee Break
12:00 — 13:30
Session Two: The Russian economy between war and sanctions – forecasts and recommendations
- Janis Kluge, Senior Associate, Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin
- Iwona Wiśniewska, Senior Fellow, Russia Department, Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Warsaw (online)
- Pavel Luzin, Visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Boston (online)
- Konstantin Sonin, John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy (online)
Moderation: Tony van der Togt, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Russia and Eastern Europe Centre, The Hague
13:30 ‑14:30 Lunch
14:30 — 16:00
Session Three: Scenarios of change: Should and could the West promote political change in Russia?
- Marek Menkiszak, Head of the Russia Department, Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Warsaw
- Mikhail Khodorkovsky, co-founder of the Russian Anti-War Committee (online)
- Marie Mendras, Professor at the Paris School of International Affairs Science-Po (online)
- David Salvo, Managing Director, Alliance for Securing Democracy and Malign Autocratic Influence, German Marshall Fund, Washington, DC (online)
Moderation: Ralf Fücks, Center for Liberal Modernity, Berlin
16:00 – 17:00 Closing remarks
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“Poland and Germany: Goals and Policies towards Russia and Ukraine. What Next?”
Foundation for German-Polish Cooperation (ul. Zielna 37, 00–108 Warsaw) and online
For details, click here!
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