No country for old men! Why Trump’s America could fail

Le roi, c’est moi

Trump has only been in office for a few weeks, yet his “State of the Union Speech” on March 4 was a promotion of the blizzard of executive direc­tives issued and an annun­ci­ation of a “golden age” the US was supposedly entering, but first and foremost it was a celebration of himself. It was also a platform for denigrating his opponents – the Democrats were sitting mostly in silent protest.  Across from them sat the energetic Repub­licans, cheering every word Trump delivered.

Trump was the dominant force in the room, stating himself as the executor of the American voters’ will by changing and trans­forming policies and insti­tu­tions and picking up high speed in rounding of illegal immigrants, firing overpaid and under­working bureau­crats, elimi­nating agencies or intim­i­dating other trading partners with tariffs. He announced to extend the reach of American influence and dominance as well as to withdraw it elsewhere. His disruptive work is moving fast and, as he proudly proclaimed “we are just getting started”. Hundreds of executive actions are on the books along with over a hundred executive orders. The avalanche of activity traps attention, it is Steve Bannon’s strategy of “flooding the zone“ in action: Keeping the focus on movement if not on substance.

Offended and revengeful

The speech included angry attacks on the Democrats and former president, Joe Biden in particular whom he called “the worst President in American history”, thereby revealing an under­lying motive of his presi­dency: Revenge against all those who he sees as respon­sible for his “perse­cu­tions” in the past eight years – the trials, the indict­ments, all of which were labeled as witch hunts.

Over the last decade, Trump has been able to exploit the griev­ances felt by millions of Americans whom he associated himself with. “Making America Great Again” included the strength­ening of the unitary presi­dency, that he envisions as one that is more powerful than the Congress and which he intends to expand. Already now he has far more concen­tration of power than during his first presi­dency, including control of the White House and both the Senate and the House of Repre­sen­ta­tives with Repub­lican Party majorities, (at least for the next two years) and to some extent the compo­sition of the Supreme Court which has six conser­v­a­tives and three liberal justices, three of which were nominated by Trump.

Culture war

But it is the compo­sition not only of the insti­tu­tions in Washington that is different. It is also the compo­sition of American society which has been evolving in a conser­v­ative direction. Trump was able to utilize and encourage it over the past decade. The response of the Repub­licans seated in the Capital building during Trump’s speech was a portrait of that trans­for­mation. The control Trump wields over the Repub­lican Party has become pervasive not only among elected officials in Washington but throughout the country.

It is this swing in society that Trump’s speech played upon, it was about feelings more than about facts, about promises more than about specific policies. It aimed at the current  culture war, on issues like “wokeness” and LGBTQI+, that MAGA rejects. Trump staged himself as captain of radical changes that are moving along at a daily if not hourly speed:  The firing of federal workers, elimi­nation of depart­ments, the creation of DOGE, stopping of inter­na­tional  aid programs, imposing of tariffs on allies, stopping aid support for Ukraine, the reclaiming of the Panama Canal, announcing  Canada to become part of the US and the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico and so on...

Global conse­quences of Trump’s erratic politics

Whether his plans are achievable or not: Many of these efforts have left much uncer­tainty in the air in Washington. Escalation of conflict with global partners in the form of tariffs have upset the markets and the unpre­dictability of Trump himself reduces confi­dence in the admin­is­tration dependent on the whims of one man. In fact, the confi­dence in American leadership, let alone trust in long-standing-partner­ships, has eroded at a time when the global arena is turning increas­ingly dangerous and the future of the US course on the world stage is unpredictable.

The recent drama surrounding the Oval Office clash between Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and Trump was an especially shocking display of disparaging another country and its leader. But Trump was aiming at doing a deal with Vladimir Putin and Zekelnskyy was simply in the way for the sake of not wanting to witness his country be erased from the map. Trump has a record of disparaging other national leaders who disagree with him.  That message was heard elsewhere around the world.

Dissat­is­faction with Trump’s domestic and inter­na­tional deals is rising

Trump is widely known as a very trans­ac­tional character who sees the deals he so often cites as his strength. But when those deals are all zero-sum-equations – one wins and the other loses – it leads to resent­ments and a dislike of relation­ships defied by values. In these first few weeks in the Oval Office, Trump has approached relations with partners as antag­o­nists often labeling them as countries that have been unfair to the United States. A recent reference to the European Union as having been invented to “screw America” is charac­ter­istic of his tactics.  If the notion of dealing with other countries is primarily based on deep griev­ances, what chance is there to reach a stable basis for a relationship?

Trump uses his deal-maker-method­ology both domes­ti­cally as well as in approaching his agenda in inter­na­tional relations. That may invig­orate his MAGA followers and personal stake holders by making him appear as a tough negotiator and President. However, it can also lead to broad concerns among the American public: His radical cuts to government enhanced by Musk’s DOGE-department are starting to leave their mark on families and friends who are losing their jobs by the thousands with far more expected along with major cuts in the budget. His decreasing interest in dealing with Ukrainian leadership and preference for working with Vladimir Putin does not reflect public opinion. That accounts more so for those in Congress who still recognize the differ­ences between the aggressor and victim in the war in Ukraine. The unpre­dictable trade policies and imple­men­tation of tariffs which swing back and forth are not only generally rejected by experts almost every­where, but they also cost jobs in both the short term and long term, not to speak of the continuing challenge of inflation and grocery prices – it is exactly that which enabled Trump to be reelected last year.

Consti­tu­tional Crisis ahead?

Trump has his own grievance agenda, both personally and as president.  Whether that stays in sync with American voters depends on how well his promises of a “golden age for Americans” become reality. He and his supporters are seeking to reset both the insti­tu­tional environment of the American government as well as the ideology serving the national narra­tives. Steps taken by Trump to justify the pardons of those who were sentenced to jail following the Jan 6 attack on the Capital aim at that direction. So does the successful nomination of people according to their loyalty towards him – those who strongly believe that Trump did not lose the 2020 election and spread his narrative and are also supportive of the unitary presidency.

Thus the deep polar­ization rises between those pushing for radical changes in the direction of a more powerful presi­dency under Trump and those who are warning about the estab­lishing of an author­i­tarian regime under the banner of “America First” and “Make America Great Again”.

The record of checks and balances in the American experience of government is built into the consti­tution and its evolution over two centuries. That process was based on respect for the three major branches of government and the assumption that a president would share that respect. In both the first term in office as President as well as in the current term, Trump and his supporters have suggested that he has greater powers in Article 2 of the Consti­tution which can clash with those of the system of judicial review as well as Congres­sional oversight. It is likely that those clashes may wind up tested in the Supreme Court in the coming years. To what extent American democracy will be tested in general remains dependent on how members of each branch of government and the voters themselves judge what is in the interests of the country over the interests of individuals including the President of the United States.

It’s up to the people: How stable is American democracy?

Trump was triumphant on March 4. He has made clear that he is moving ahead with his agenda with executive actions and orders, all of which can be turned around by a new president in 2028. How much the legislative branch will exercise its oversight over the White House depends on the majorities in each chamber and their ability to challenge the executive branch. The judicial process will also be tested by the web of judges at multiple levels.

The health of the American exper­iment with democracy will thus be work in progress – for better and for worse. Americans have lived through both scenarios and have survived and thrived for two centuries, including a civil war, two world wars and stresses and strains on the country as it coped with fear, uncer­tainty and dangers both foreign and domestic. We are currently facing all of those threats again today. In eighteen months, the Congres­sional elections will be held in 2026. In the meantime, there will be an increasing effort by those critical of Trump’s agenda seeking to challenge it, indeed, to halt its progress. That effort will likely emerge from the local and state levels of American society, where the impact of the changes being imple­mented by the Trump admin­is­tration will be most personally felt. That is already visible now. How catalytic it can be remains to be seen.

Trump delivers his next address to the two chambers in Congress a year from now. We will see what the compo­sition of the American political environment will look like then.

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