Policy Paper: Moldova’s Elections in 2025 – Between ‘Pro-EU’, ‘Pro-Russia’ and ‘Alter­native’ Scenarios

On 28 September, Moldovans will go to the polls in what promises to be historic parlia­mentary elections. Their outcome remains uncertain. A variety of scenarios are possible, depending on how the population will respond to a mixture of fears and frustra­tions: 1) the urgency of pushing forward with EU accession as a form of protection against a perceived Russian threat, versus 2) the reality on the ground, which is aggra­vated by socio-economic and reform-related discontent. The following policy brief takes a brief look at the current situation within the country and examines four major post-election scenarios. Each of these entails potential effects in four different areas: domestic stability, relations with the EU, resolution of the Transnis­trian conflict, and dialogue with Russia, including in light of the war in Ukraine. One of the more realistic of these scenarios involves a post-election situation in which EU accession negoti­a­tions are initiated once Ukraine’s hurdles are surmounted another involves a shift in the political landscape that could pose challenges for the retention of EU candidate status, predi­cated as it is on an election outcome that results in a coalition which chooses to follow the Georgian example. If the Moldovan government deter­mines that Russian inter­ference has affected the outcome and a PAS-majority or coalition is unlikely, then the “Romanian Scenario” of cancelling the elections could arise.