“Trump’s latest remarks on NATO spark concerns in Asia too”

Donald Trump’s recent invitation to Russia to attack European allies shook NATO countries. How was this received in Asia? Security expert Chen-Yi Tu in an interview from Taiwan about reactions and the potential impact on security and alliances in Asia.

Mrs Tu, Donald Trump shocked NATO countries with his invitation to Russia to attack allies in Europe. Were there any shock waves in Asia too?

Trump’s latest remarks on NATO spark concerns and appre­hen­sions in the region too, recalling his request to increase defense spending during his presi­dency in countries like Japan and Korea.

When you look into the broader region, countries from India to Australia have fortified their military alliances in the recent years, because of China’s increasing belligerence. How do you think Trump’s statement was received in Beijing?

Beijing has yet to respond directly to Trump’s statement. It should be noted that the news broke-out during Lunar New Year, when the Chinese media tend to focus on the new year celebration throughout Mainland China and overseas Chinese commu­nities. However, Foreign Minister Wang Yi still took the oppor­tunity to present China as a more stable, reliable security partner than the U.S. during his recent visit to Europe.

Manila has felt more heat from Beijing in the last couple of weeks. Under the Biden-presi­dency the country secured a broader US-military engagement on the Philip­pines. What would a withdrawal of Trump from the Philip­pines mean for the most Western tip of the Pacific. Would China eventually succeed and occupy what it calls the South China Sea?

While it is clear that China asserts its maritime claims on the South China Sea, there are many uncer­tainties for the prospect of the South China Sea with various parties involved. Although the previous Trump admin­is­tration did withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, it also rejected nearly all Beijing’s maritime claims in the South China Sea. It is too early to tell from now.

Taiwan is a vital part of the first island chain that is designed to keep the war hungry Chinese dictator Xi Jinping at bay. If Taiwan falls this would have signif­icant reper­cussion for the security in Asia and global trade. Unlike Joe Biden, Donald Trump said he might not defend the island nation. How will the incoming admin­is­tration view a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House? 

I would say the incoming admin­is­tration, which is the unprece­dented third term of Democ­ratic Progressive Party (DPP), has started the government transition process and prepared for all possible outcomes in this election year. This has been the reality in the U.S.-Taiwan relations. The most important thing is respecting the democ­ratic process of Taiwan’s allies and like-minded partners.

The Taiwanese army has substan­tially increased its ability to rebuke a Chinese attack in the last few years. Could it count on the support of other regional players such as Japan and Australia in case of an invasion attempt?

As an island, Taiwan’s military strategy is build-upon the fact that Taiwan has to defend itself. Taiwan would welcome all possible support and assis­tance from the allies and like-minded partners, but this does not funda­men­tally change the fact and aim of capability-building.

Beijing has claimed that the United States would seek to form an “Asian NATO”. In reality Washington enter­tains a lot of alliances with single countries in Asia such as Vietnam and selected smaller groups such as the QUAD or the AUKUS partnership, that come not close to the article 5 commitment of the NATO charter. Would the creation of such an Asian NATO be in the interest of Asian nation and ultimately deter Beijing?

Compared with NATO, Asian nations generally do not show strong solidarity in addressing security challenges due to differ­ences and political reality. Even a NATO-like treaty alliance may still have a long way to go, Beijing is wary of all kinds of connec­tions-building within and beyond regions- as long as Beijing is not one of the parties involved.

Dr. Chen-Yi (Crystal) Tu is an Assistant Research Fellow at the Division of Cyber­se­curity and Decision Making Simulation at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) in Taiwan. Her research focuses on infor­mation opera­tions, strategy, emerging technology, and their impli­ca­tions in geopo­litical compe­tition. She is one of the first Inaugural Group of McCain Fellows for Freedom by Inter­na­tional Repub­lican Institute, U.S. Prior to joining INDSR, Dr. Tu worked in consul­tancy on data science and data-driven decision-making for both public and private sectors in Taiwan.