Conference: Russia and the West – What is at Stake

As Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine enters its third year, the Kremlin seems deter­mined to fight the war through to the end, despite heavy losses of men and material.

The Russian power elite is counting on Western fatigue and the attrition of Ukraine. Every sign of indecision and conflict aversion in Washington and Europe encourages the Kremlin to continue its campaign against Ukraine with all its brutality.

At the same time, differ­ences between Western capitals over the endgame of the war and the extent of military support for Ukraine are obvious. In view of the inten­sified Russian attacks, a common strategy is urgently needed with regard to the West’s objec­tives and the means required to achieve them.

It remains to be seen how stable the regime in Moscow really is and how broad its popular support is. The fact that the Kremlin let Alexei Navalny die in a prison camp at the Arctic Circle does not speak for the regime’s strength. Who are possible “agents of change” in Russia and how can the West promote change?

Last but not least we want to discuss which conclu­sions Europe, and the US should draw from the failure of their previous Russia policies: What are the guide­lines for a new, realistic policy vis-à-vis Moscow for the West?

EXPERT CONFERENCE

9:30 — 10:00  Regis­tration. Welcome coffee.

10:00 — 10:15
Opening

Ralf Fücks & Marieluise Beck, Center for Liberal Modernity

10:15 — 11:45
Session One: Evalu­ation of Russia’s internal situation
How stable is the regime? What are possible crisis factors? How much support does the regime (and the war against Ukraine) have among the population? Who are potential “agents of change” in Russia?

INPUTS

• Irina Scherbakowa, Historian, co-founder of MEMORIAL
• Alexandra Prokopenko, Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Berlin
• Vladimir Milov, Politician, Economist and Energy expert, Vice President for Inter­na­tional Advocacy, Free Russia Foundation
• Marek Menkiszak, Head of the Russia Department, Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Warsaw

MODERATION: John Lough, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

11:45 — 12:00  Coffee Break

12:00–13:30 
Session Two: Key Points of a New European Russia policy

The war in Ukraine forces Europe to make uncom­fortable decisions: Rapprochement or containment and deter­rence vis-à-vis Moscow? Is Putin still a legit­imate leader and potential partner for the West? Is Europe ready to meet the new security challenges? How should a solid burden-sharing between the EU and NATO look like? How can we promote the integration of Ukraine and other Eastern Partnership countries into the West? How can we encourage political change in Russia?

INPUTS

• Dirk Schuebel, Special Envoy to the Eastern Partnership Countries, European External Action Service (EEAS)
• Andrius Kubilius, Member of the European Parliament, former Prime Minister of Lithuania
• Pavlo Klimkin, Co-Founder of the Centre for National Resilience and Devel­opment and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine

COMMENT

• Robin S. Quinville, Director, Global Europe Program, Wilson Center

MODERATION: Ralf Fücks, Center for Liberal Modernity

13:30 — 14:30  Lunch break

14:30 — 16:00
Session Three: Tight­ening of the sanctions regime
Russian oil & gas exports and imports of military relevant technologies; reded­i­cation of Russian state bank assets to financial aid and compen­sation payments for Ukraine.

INPUTS

• David J. Kramer, Executive Director, George W. Bush Institute, Dallas; former US Assistant Secretary of State (online)
• Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia & Eurasia, Inter­na­tional Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London
• Patrick Heinemann, Lawyer and Partner at Bender Harrer Krevet, Freiburg
• Olena Tregub, Secretary General, Independent Anti-Corruption Committee (NAKO), former Director at Ukraine’s Ministry of Economic Devel­opment, Kyiv
  

MODERATION: Nikolaus von Twickel, Center for Liberal Modernity

16:00 — 16:15  Coffee Break

16:15 — 17:00
Closing Discussion and Takeaways

Ralf Fücks, Center for Liberal Modernity