Export of “green” hydrogen from Ukraine to the EU: current capacity and future potential

Ukraine has a high potential for the production of “green” hydrogen. DiXi Group’s infographic explains what condi­tions must be met for hydrogen export.

Relevance of the “hydrogen” issue

According to the European Green Deal, hydrogen power must become the main component of the EU’s integrated power system during 2025–2030, and the capacity of electrolysis plants must increase to at least 40 GW.

Ukraine is an important part of the EU’s future hydrogen power system. The Hydrogen Strategy envisages cooper­ation with Ukraine on the devel­opment of renewable energy sources and the production of “green” hydrogen and the involvement of Ukraine in the European Clean Hydrogen Alliance. Hydrogen Europe’s 2×40 GW initiative envisages the construction of electrol­ysers with a rating of 9.8 GW in Ukraine to produce “green” hydrogen. Therefore, Ukraine may become an indis­pensable factor in achieving the ambitious goals of the European Green Deal.

Realization of the EU’s goals in the context of Ukrainian realities

Since the EU counts on Ukraine producing specif­i­cally “green” hydrogen, i.e., by electrolysis of water using “green” electricity, what capacity of solar and wind power plants (SPPs and WPPs) would be required to meet this demand?

Hydrogen Europe stated in its report on the 2×40 GW initiative that by 2030, Ukraine may create 1.8 GW of capacity to produce almost 1 million tons of “green” ammonia (for the domestic market) and 8 GW of capacity to produce “green” hydrogen (for export to the EU). Based on expec­ta­tions that 32.5 GW of capacity outside the EU will make it possible to contribute 3 million tons of “green” hydrogen, Ukraine’s share in the 8 GW electrolysis capacity would corre­spond to the production of almost 738  thousand tons of “green” hydrogen.

However, since wind and solar power plants actually have a lower installed capacity utilization factor (ICUF) than hydro­electric or nuclear power plants, a much greater gener­ation capacity would be required to achieve this goal. According to calcu­la­tions by Siemens Gamesa experts, almost 13 000 GW of SPP capacity (with the assumed 24% ICUF for a solar power plant and the electrolyser’s effec­tiveness of close to 79%) or 6 200 GW of WPP capacity (with the assumed 50% ICUF for wind power gener­ators) will be needed to produce 550 million tons of “green” hydrogen per year.

Accord­ingly, Ukraine would need almost 17.455 GW of SPPs or 8.324 GW of WPPs to produce 738 thousand tons of “green” hydrogen. 

For comparison: as of November 2021, the installed capacity of SPPs in Ukraine was only 6.226 GW, or only a third of what is needed. For WPPs, the figure is 1.529 GW, which is one-fifth the required capacity. According to Ukrenergo’s optimistic scenario, the capacity of solar and wind power plants may still reach the required levels by 2035 (18.5 GW for SPPs and 11.7 GW for WPPs). And overall, the potential of Ukraine’s solar and wind power production capacity is assessed to be at least 537 GW (466 GW for WPPs and 71 GW for SPPs). Conse­quently, the country’s hydrogen production potential is also substantial, assessed at approx­i­mately 45.4 million tons.

At the same time, it is worth noting that not the entire renewable electricity gener­ation capacity will be allocated solely for the production of “green” hydrogen, because these production opera­tions would be the most econom­i­cally viable for large renewable power installations.

The domestic demand for “green” hydrogen

Allowance should also be made for the potential increase of domestic demand for hydrogen due to the effect of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (СВАМ), partic­u­larly on part of the metal­lur­gical and chemical indus­tries to produce “green” steel, cast iron and ammonium fertil­izers. The metal­lur­gical industry faces the most acute need to decar­bonize its production processes. 94% of Ukraine’s steel is produced by energy-intensive and outdated methods that use coal, which can be replaced with “green” hydrogen, while almost 26% of the Ukrainian metal­lur­gical sector’s production output is exported to the EU.

For example, 1 billion tons of “green” hydrogen would be needed to fully decar­bonize the annual steel production output of 20.6 million tons (the 2020 figure). Let’s assume that the priority requirement will be the production of “green” steel for export to the EU (26%), i.e., 5.4 million tons. In that case, 270 million tons of “green” hydrogen would be needed for that purpose, and to produce that volume, 6400 GW of SPPs or 3000 GW of WPPs would be required.

It is an open question whether such additional capacity could be created over a relatively short period (by 2030) in the Ukrainian realities, given that the renew­ables sector is in a state of crisis. Currently, Ukraine does not have an approved hydrogen power devel­opment strategy. The draft Roadmap for Devel­opment and Production of Hydrogen in Ukraine defines three phases for imple­men­tation of regulatory and economic objec­tives between 2021 and 2029. However, this plan does not envisage achieving 2×40 GW goals.

Land and water as important resources for the production of “green” hydrogen

When planning the production of “green” hydrogen, consid­er­ation must be given not only to the instal­lation of SPP and WPP gener­ation capacity but also to land use. Depending on the location, the renewable electricity gener­ation potential, and technologies,  the land require­ments are estimated at approx­i­mately 0.3 ha/​MW for WPPs and 1.6 ha/​MW for SPPs on average.

Therefore, between 2.5 thousand and 28.2 thousand hectares of land would have to be allocated in Ukraine for renewable power instal­la­tions for producing “green” hydrogen. In comparison: on geographical scale, this area the size of Vyshneve (a town in the Kyiv Oblast) or of Mykolaiv, respectively. 

There might be enough land to accom­modate powerful renewable electricity production facil­ities, especially consid­ering the capabil­ities of offshore WPPs, but this approach does not take into account certain specifics of every region and its renewable energy potential.

Besides the avail­ability of land, the uninter­ruptible access to signif­icant water resources is another important factor in the operation of electrolysis plants for the production of “green” hydrogen.

According to estimates, the total consumption of water to produce hydrogen from SPPs and WPPs may reach approx­i­mately 22–32 liters per kilogram of hydrogen on average.

Therefore, depending on technologies, Ukraine would require between 16.25 and 23.63 billion litres of water per year to produce “green” hydrogen. 

At the same time, Ukraine has one of the lowest water avail­ability indicators among European countries: approx­i­mately 1 thousand cubic meters per resident. Water avail­ability differs signif­i­cantly between regions of Ukraine, and the scarcity of water is especially acute in southern regions.

Therefore, water resources are signif­i­cantly limited in Ukraine. Even though the country has access to seawater, it would have to be desali­nated. That, in turn, would only make hydrogen production projects more expensive.

The above calcu­la­tions are only estimates, but it is already obvious that substantial resources would be needed not only to meet the domestic demand for “green” hydrogen and deriv­ative products (ammonia, fertil­izers) but also for exports. It means not only the land use but also invest­ments in wind and solar power gener­ation, and especially access to water resources, which in the condi­tions of adaptation to climate change could become even more scarce.

DiXi Group is a Kyiv think tank involved in research and consul­ta­tions in the energy sphere – on the cross­roads of politics, public relations, safety, and investments.