Forum 2b: Impact of Russian aggression on neighbouring countries — civil society expectations of the EU
What impact is the Russian war of annihilation having on neighbouring countries? And what expectations does civil society in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have of the EU? Leonid Litra, Ivane Chkhikvadze, Natalia Stercul and Dirk Schübel discussed these issues.
Since the beginning of Russia’s all-out war of aggression, the need to rethinking the EU’s security policy with regard to neighbouring countries has become increasingly urgent. Countries that have been directly affected by Russian imperialist policies since the 1990s, such as Moldova and Georgia, could be the next victims.
Russia’s military presence in Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia
The growing insecurity is due to the fact that Russia maintains a significant military presence in the breakaway regions of Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, while the Kremlin is waging a massive hybrid war to destabilise both Moldova and Georgia. In this context, it is important to mention that the possibility of EU accession plays a crucial role for Moldova as a candidate country and for Georgia as a potential candidate country.
What impact will the Russian war of annihilation have on the neighbouring countries? And what expectations does civil society in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have of the EU? Khatia Kikalishvili, Programme Director “Eastern Partnership” at LibMod, discussed these questions with Leonid Litra, Senior Research Fellow at the New Europe Center, Ivane Chkhikvadze, EU Integration Programme Manager at the Open Society Georgia Foundation, Natalia Stercul, Director of the Foreign Policy Association of the Republic of Moldova, and Dirk Schübel, Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership at the EEAS.
Moldova and Georgia should utilise the unique window of opportunity
Natalia Stercul explained how dangerous the security situation currently is for Moldova, especially considering the powerful pro-Russian forces in the country. Security experts consider it all the more important that the NATO debate is put on the agenda. It is now crucial to successfully implement EU reforms in order to utilise this unique window of opportunity.
Vano Chkhikvadze emphasised the strong influence of the Kremlin on the Georgian government. It has been trying to block Georgia’s European path since the war. The Georgian population, on the other hand, is firmly on the side of Ukraine and is predominantly pro-European (80 per cent). Unfortunately, this war of aggression had made it clear that the trio (Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) did not stand together at government level.
The EU had taken a major step in the direction of security policy by granting candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. According to Ambassador Schübel, the closer the eastern neighbouring countries moved towards the EU and adopted its legislation, the more their security would be guaranteed. In addition, the EU had become a strong geopolitical player in the region and had launched several missions in Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia, including in defence against hybrid warfare. The EU had understood that there was no way back and that it had to act in terms of security policy.
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