Russia and the West – 2026

With Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine approaching its sixth year, the Kremlin finds itself in an increas­ingly challenging situation, both on the battle­field and at home.

The Russian army’s advances in south-east Ukraine have slowed sharply over the past year. Moscow is trying to compensate for this lack of success by inten­si­fying drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s cities and infra­structure. The lack of missile defence leaves Ukraine increas­ingly vulnerable to these attacks. The country is facing an extremely harsh winter.

At the same time, Kyiv is conducting mid- and long-range counter­strikes against energy infra­structure, economic and military targets across Russia. The war has finally come home to Russia.

While Putin has so far managed to preserve domestic stability, he is facing increas­ingly negative economic trends. Large sections of the population can no longer ignore the impact of the war.

Although there is no indication that regime collapse is imminent or indeed likely, tensions are becoming more visible. Ultra-nation­alist hardliners are calling for a more aggressive war strategy, tougher domestic repression, and open confrontation with the West. Voices within the estab­lishment express doubts that the war can be won. Yabloko’s exclusion from the upcoming Duma elections shows that the Kremlin fears growing war weariness.

The conference will focus on three major questions:

• What do these devel­op­ments mean for Russia’s domestic dynamics, the prospects for ending the war, and Europe’s Eastern policy?
• How should Europe deal with a post-war Russia? What are its key interests, and how should it balance deter­rence and condi­tional cooperation?
• How can Europe incen­tivize the Russian elites to move away from a policy of confrontation in a post-Putin era without compro­mising the European normative order and making conces­sions at the expense of others?

EXPERT CONFERENCE – Draft agenda

09:30    Regis­tration and Welcome Coffee

10:00–10:15       Opening: Ralf Fücks, Center for Liberal Modernity

10:15–11:30       Session One
Russia at War: Military Pressure, Economic Strain, Regime Stability 

In cooper­ation with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST)

Inputs:

• Alexander Kolyandr, Europe Director, Eurasia Group; Senior Fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
• Ksenia Luchenko, Research Fellow, NEST Centre
• Nikolai Petrov, Head of Analysis of Trans­for­mation Process, NEST Centre

Moder­ation: John Lough, Head of Foreign Policy, NEST Centre

Comment:

• Moritz Schularick, Director of the Kiel Institute of the World Economy (tbc)

11:30–12:00       Coffee Break

12:00–13:30       Session Two
How to End the War in Ukraine and minimize the threat from Russia: Europe’s Leverage

Opening remarks:

• Andrius Kubilius, European Commis­sioner for Defence and Space (tbc)

Comments:

• Piotr Buras, Head of the Warsaw office, European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) (tbc)
• Dominik Mutter, Political Director at the German Federal Foreign Office
• Oleksandr Sushko, Executive Director, Inter­na­tional Renais­sance Foundation, Kyiv (tbc)

13:30–14:30       Lunch Break

14:30–16:00       Session Three
Russia’s Future, Europe’s Security and Long-Term Russia Strategy

Inputs:

• Maria Domańska, Senior Fellow and Deputy Head of the Russian Department, Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Warsaw
• Mikhail Khodor­kovsky, co-founder of the Russian Anti-War Committee (tbc)
• Nico Lange, Senior Fellow, Transat­lantic Defense and Security, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA); Senior Advisor, Rasmussen Global (tbc)
• Fredrik Löjdquist, Director of the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS)

16:00    Closing Remarks