Russia and the West – 2026
RUSSIA AND THE WEST
Prospects for ending the war, Russia’s domestic dynamics and Europe’s strategy for a post-war Russia
14 October 2026 (Wednesday)
Reinhardtstraßenhöfe, (Reinhardtstraße 14, 10117 Berlin) & Online
With Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine approaching its sixth year, the Kremlin finds itself in an increasingly challenging situation, both on the battlefield and at home.
The Russian army’s advances in south-east Ukraine have slowed sharply over the past year. Moscow is trying to compensate for this lack of success by intensifying drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure. The lack of missile defence leaves Ukraine increasingly vulnerable to these attacks. The country is facing an extremely harsh winter.
At the same time, Kyiv is conducting mid- and long-range counterstrikes against energy infrastructure, economic and military targets across Russia. The war has finally come home to Russia.
While Putin has so far managed to preserve domestic stability, he is facing increasingly negative economic trends. Large sections of the population can no longer ignore the impact of the war.
Although there is no indication that regime collapse is imminent or indeed likely, tensions are becoming more visible. Ultra-nationalist hardliners are calling for a more aggressive war strategy, tougher domestic repression, and open confrontation with the West. Voices within the establishment express doubts that the war can be won. Yabloko’s exclusion from the upcoming Duma elections shows that the Kremlin fears growing war weariness.
The conference will focus on three major questions:
- What do these developments mean for Russia’s domestic dynamics, the prospects for ending the war, and Europe’s Eastern policy?
- How should Europe deal with a post-war Russia? What are its key interests, and how should it balance deterrence and conditional cooperation?
- How can Europe incentivize the Russian elites to move away from a policy of confrontation in a post-Putin era without compromising the European normative order and making concessions at the expense of others?
*) The expert conference is held in cooperation with and with support from the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST), London
Conference languages are English, German and Russian with simultaneous interpretation throughout.
Please note that Chatham House Rules apply to the conference (but not at the evening event).
EXPERT CONFERENCE – Draft agenda
09:30 Registration and Welcome Coffee
10:00–10:15 Opening: Ralf Fücks, Center for Liberal Modernity
10:15–11:30 Session One
Russia at War: Military Pressure, Economic Strain, Regime Stability
Inputs:
- Alexander Kolyandr, Europe Director, Eurasia Group; Senior Fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
- Ksenia Luchenko, Research Fellow, NEST Centre
- Nikolai Petrov, Head of Analysis of Transformation Process, NEST Centre
Moderation: John Lough, Head of Foreign Policy, NEST Centre
Comment:
- Gwendolyn Sasse, Director of the Centre for Eastern European and International Studies (ZOiS), Berlin (tbc)
11:30–12:00 Coffee Break
12:00–13:30 Session Two
How to End the War in Ukraine and minimize the threat from Russia: Europe’s Leverage
Inputs:
- Marie Mendras, Professor, Paris School of International Affairs – SciencesPo, Paris
- Dominik Mutter, Political Director at the German Federal Foreign Office
- Oleksandr Sushko, Executive Director, International Renaissance Foundation, Kyiv
13:30–14:30 Lunch Break
14:30–16:00 Session Three
Russia’s Future, Europe’s Security and Long-Term Russia Strategy
Inputs:
- Maria Domańska, Senior Fellow and Deputy Head of the Russian Department, Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Warsaw
- Mikhail Khodorkovsky, co-founder of the Russian Anti-War Committee (tbc)
- Nico Lange, Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Defense and Security, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA); Senior Advisor, Rasmussen Global
- Fredrik Löjdquist, Director of the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS)
16:00 Closing Remarks
PUBLIC DISCUSSION 19:00–21:30
Europe’s Security and Long-Term Russia Strategy
19:00 – 19:10 Welcome: Ralf Fücks, Center for Liberal Modernity
Panel I:
- Deborah Düring, Member of Parliament, Foreign Policy Spokesperson of the Green Party Group
- Jürgen Hardt, Member of Parliament, Foreign Policy Spokesperson for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group (tbc)
- Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Co-Founder of the Russian Anti-War Committee (tbc)
- Dr. Nils Schmid, Member of Parliament, Parliamentary State Secretary at the Defence Ministry
Panel II:
- Fredrik Löjdquist, Director of the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS)
- Marie Mendras, Professor, Paris School of International Affairs – SciencesPo, Paris
- Žygimantas Pavilionis, Member of the Lithuanian Seimas, Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee
21:30 – 22:30 Reception
