Moldaus Weg in die EU nach dem Referendum und den Präsidentschaftswahlen

EU enlar­gement and the struggle to preserve democratic sustaina­bility under condi­tions of unpre­ce­dented geopo­li­tical turbu­lence form the main context of the internal political trans­for­ma­tions taking place in Moldova. The latest stage on Moldova’s European path is associated with several diffi­culties. Some of these originate within the country, diffi­culties in the reform process itself, while others have external sources, chiefly, Russia’s inter­fe­rence in Moldovan electoral processes, which is under­mining democratic develo­pment and hindering Moldova’s rappro­chement with the EU. Before it had had time to subside, the inter­na­tional public outcry over the results of the referendum on EU accession in Moldova was replaced by the shock effect of a new wave of the country’s energy crisis, which is not having the best impact on the image of the pro-European autho­rities. In the run-up to the parlia­mentary elections in 2025, an increase in energy prices, which will further aggravate a situation that is already hard to bear, may result in discontent and “protest moods” in the populace that do not bode well for the autho­rities. Hybrid threats, attacks and challenges continue to be integral to the Russian Federation’s policy towards Moldova. Russia’s tactics are difficult for Moldovan autho­rities to control or prevent, including through preventive measures on the eve of the election campaign. Moreover, the Trans­nis­trian conflict continues to remain unresolved: no progress has been made towards the reinte­gration of the Trans­nistria into Moldova. Security, economic, energy and infor­mation challenges pose serious obstacles to reforms and trans­for­ma­tions in the country.

Opening of negotia­tions – a new stage on Moldova’s European path

With the opening of EU accession negotia­tions in June 2024, Moldova entered a new stage on its European path. July saw the launch of the bilateral screening process, on the basis of which the European Commission will prepare reports assessing Moldova’s level of readiness to open negotia­tions for each chapter. This process involves complex technical and adminis­trative efforts to amend hundreds of regula­tions and create new insti­tu­tions, as well as to establish mecha­nisms to bring national legis­lation, standards and insti­tu­tions in line with European standards. Since July, Moldova has managed to address seven chapters. The negotiation process for the first cluster, which contains chapters related to the “funda­mentals”, is scheduled to start in the first half of 2025.

The EU integration process is complex and is influenced to a high degree by its political, economic and regional context, which is currently charac­te­rized by an extremely high level of turbu­lence. In addition, the process will require considerable effort, time and human resources on the part of Moldova, which is already acutely feeling a shortage of the latter. It will also require a high level of profes­sio­nalism in various fields, as well as the ability to utilize, properly and in a timely fashion, the financial resources allocated for the imple­men­tation of reforms. How fast Moldova advances through the negotiation process will depend mainly on how strong the political will to do so is, the adminis­trative capacity of the autho­rities in Chisinau and the pace of progress in meeting the accession criteria and imple­menting key reforms, especially in the area of justice and anti-corruption. This latter area is one in which Moldova is having parti­cular diffi­culty, despite some progress noted by the European Commission.

The EU has strict rules regarding the granting of prefe­rences. The negotiating framework that the EU estab­lished for Moldova speci­fi­cally autho­rises the European Commission to recommend the suspension of negotia­tions in the case of a serious and persistent breach of the values on which the Union is based, either on its own initiative or at the justified request of a Member State. A recom­men­dation of this kind would be accom­panied by a proposal formu­lating condi­tions for a resumption of negotia­tions. Should the Council suspend the negotia­tions, the Commission would be respon­sible for assessing develo­p­ments and recom­mending the resumption of negotia­tions once Moldova had met all condi­tions. The work of the leading insti­tu­tional struc­tures is crucial in the accession negotiation process but much also depends on the internal state of affairs in Moldovan politics, in parti­cular the distri­bution of political forces in Parliament as a result of Moldova’s forth­coming parlia­mentary elections in 2025. The ability to counter external influence from Russia will be crucial.

Russia consti­tutes the chief source of external challenges along Moldova’s path to the EU

Russia continues to wield signi­ficant influence in Moldova and support for Putinism in the country persists. In addition to providing additional triggers for political manipu­la­tions of the pro-Russian political forces in Moldova and pro-Russian citizens, who support the Kremlin policy and deepening divisions in society, this influence and support act as powerful desta­bi­lizing factors, enabling Russia to interfere in electoral processes and undermine democratic processes and Moldova’s progress towards EU accession. Russia also continues to actively exploit oppor­tu­nities to provide illegal financing to pro-Russian political forces in Moldova. These forces then use the funds to bribe voters, so the funding is a tool to boost the destructive effects of electoral corruption.

Against the background of the struggle between pro-Russian and pro-European forces, Moldova is still considered a country with a hybrid regime, and indicator-based assess­ments of democratic conso­li­dation in the country still place it in the so-called hybrid zone. This is largely due to the power struggle with pro-Russian political forces supported by Moscow, which seeks to maintain its influence and control over Moldova and prevent it from fully aligning with the EU. This dynamic continues to influence the persistent divisions within Moldovan society.

The recent presi­dential election in Moldova was an important turning point with respect to the country’s democratic and geopo­li­tical landscape, revealing its internal complexity and vulnerable nature, which pro-Russian forces are exploiting for the purposes of political manipu­lation. This poses a serious challenge to Moldova’s European aspira­tions. The geographic distri­bution of votes “for” and “against” accession to the EU in the referendum clearly reveals the full scale of the outreach work that must be done in the coming years, which will neces­s­arily include streng­thening strategic commu­ni­cation with popula­tions living in the north and south of the country, as well as the adjacent terri­tories of the security zone bordering the Trans­nis­trian region.

Challenges in the field of energy security

While Russia has used energy blackmail against Moldova on numerous occasions, the current energy crisis in Moldova is the most severe the country has faced in the years of its existence as independent state. The crisis resulted from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and ongoing attacks on the Ukrainian energy infra­structure, in combi­nation with a number of other factors. The search for oppor­tu­nities to diversify energy resources and mitigate the conse­quences of the energy crisis has already begun. The assis­tance of European partners in this process has played and continues to play a crucial role in maintaining the state’s viability and function­ality. In the current year, 2024, Moldova joined in the efforts to integrate the Romanian, Moldovan and Ukrainian electricity systems, a project leading to a further diver­si­fi­cation of Moldova’s energy flows, as well as support for Ukraine’s energy supply, . In May 2024, the United States provided additional financial resources to Moldova through cross-sectoral coope­ration to support energy develo­pment, including but not limited to cyber­se­curity. This follows signi­ficant investment by the U.S. government in Moldova’s energy sector. Moreover, the continued support from the European Union, the World Bank and other foreign partners is essential for Moldova’s energy future. Despite progress towards energy diver­si­fi­cation, substan­tially increased energy prices have had a negative impact on the Moldovan economy. The conse­quences for the population of the ongoing reform in Moldova’s energy sector have been dire, as the increase in gas and electricity prices in line with European standards has placed an unbearable burden on the Moldovan population. This has caused an increase in discontent and anti-government sentiment, which was reflected in the results of the referendum and the 2024 presi­dential elections. After the presi­dential elections, Moldova was faced with a new round of the energy crisis, which has plunged the country into a very vulnerable position during the winter heating season. Pricing policy issues will be decisive in the search for alter­native solutions to regulate the crisis. On 16 December 2024, Moldova officially came under a state of emergency in the field of energy. All this has negative impacts on the image of the pro-European autho­rities. Thus, the issue of the energy supply in Moldova one of the most powerful political resources, as well as a matter of the physical supply of resources: pro-Russian candi­dates run on platforms promising a return to lower energy prices, thereby manipu­lating public opinion, fuelling popular discontent and creating the basis for anti-government sentiment.

Hybrid challenges and threats

Hybrid challenges pose a signi­ficant obstacle to advancement along the path into Europe. In the current context, social media rapidly pick up and replicate political propa­ganda, creating funda­men­tally new effects of hybrid risk perception. During the 2024 presi­dential elections, state insti­tu­tions came under hybrid attacks. Numerous manipu­lation tactics, elements of black PR, and disin­for­mation were used to tarnish the image of the Moldovan president and to disrupt the referendum on EU accession. The criminal group “Shor” continues its campaign to desta­bilize Moldova, actively using social networks to this end. Though measures have been taken to counteract this, it is not possible to do so to a suffi­cient degree. Moldova is being subjected to a set of actions of hybrid influence involving the use of the organized crime rings and platforms regis­tered in other juris­dic­tions, backed by parti­cu­larly big budgets provided by Russia. It is quite clear that Moldova will be affected by direct aggression aimed at the parlia­mentary elections slated for 2025.

Unresolved Trans­nis­trian conflict as an obstacle to Moldova’s path to EU membership

The Trans­nis­trian region, which is not under the control of Chisinau, continues to be a signi­ficant obstacle on Moldova’s path to the EU. Of course, there is precedent for EU entry by states with unresolved terri­torial conflicts, but maintaining unity when joining the EU is important from the perspective of the terri­torial integrity of Moldova. Russia has never neglected the Trans­nis­trian region: it has used its soft power constantly to fuel the prevailing mood, creating obstacles to the country’s reinte­gration. This can be expected to continue for the near future, as Russia would not ignore the loss of control over Trans­nistria. The Moldovan autho­rities, well aware that any inten­si­fi­cation of the Trans­nis­trian conflict would bring with it a raft of unpre­dic­table conse­quences, remain extremely cautious and limited in their actions. Nonetheless, any exclu­sively diplo­matic and peaceful resolution of the conflict would require the reinte­gration of the region and its demili­ta­rization through the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the unreco­gnized republic. Much depends on what happens in the war in Ukraine. The best of the scenarios that appear possible at this time would be that negotia­tions between Russia and Ukraine on ending hosti­lities might create a window for negotia­tions on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Trans­nistria and the estab­lishment of an EU mission there.

Thus, Moldova has a difficult road ahead. It is crucial that the country remain united on this road and progres­sively promote the European agenda. There are key steps that must be taken to reduce external influence and to counteract the illegal financing of political forma­tions and forces, as well as to fight electoral corruption. The outcome of the parlia­mentary elections in Moldova will largely determine the country’s future along the European path, the timeframes for moving along this trajectory towards EU accession, i.e. the speed and possi­bi­lities of realizing the commit­ments under­taken and for meeting EU criteria.